US turns up pressure on Cuba, which was heavily reliant on money from Venezuela | DW News

Key Concepts

• US-Cuba Relations: Deteriorating relationship marked by sanctions and potential for increased pressure.
• Venezuela’s Role: Cuba’s primary oil supplier and a key source of financial assistance.
• US Foreign Policy (Trump Administration): Assertive approach in the Western Hemisphere, emphasizing US dominance.
• Monroe Doctrine/“Donro Doctrine”: Historical and contemporary frameworks for US influence in the Americas.
• Interdiction & Blockade: Potential US actions to restrict oil flow to Cuba.
• Geopolitical Implications: Potential responses from Russia and China, and limitations of their influence in the region.

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US Pressure on Cuba Following Venezuela Developments

The United States is escalating pressure on Cuba in the wake of recent events in Venezuela, specifically following developments related to President Nicolas Maduro. President Trump announced via social media his intention to halt all oil and financial assistance to Cuba, stating, “There will be no more oil or money going to Cuba. Zero. I strongly suggest they make a deal before it's too late.” Cuba’s Foreign Minister responded by accusing the US of criminal and uncontrolled behavior, posing a threat to global peace and security.

Cuba’s Oil Supply & Potential Alternatives

Venezuela was Cuba’s largest oil supplier in the previous year. William Leo Grant, a specialist in Latin American politics at American University, explained that the US could prevent Cuba from accessing Venezuelan oil if the Venezuelan government complies with the demand to cut off supplies. Alternatively, the US Navy could “interdict the tankers” traveling between the two countries, a tactic already employed in the past week.

Regarding alternative oil sources, Grant identified Mexico as a significant supplier alongside Russia. He also suggested potential options including Angola, Algeria, and Trinidad Tobago, though these countries haven’t historically provided oil to Cuba at the same low cost as Venezuela.

Potential US-Cuba Deal & Intervention Scenarios

The President’s call for Cuba to “make a deal” with the US is a departure from the Trump administration’s previous lack of diplomatic engagement with Cuba. The specifics of such a deal remain unclear, and the Cubans have expressed interest in understanding the terms.

Grant dismissed the likelihood of a US military intervention in Cuba similar to the situation in Venezuela, noting that the Cuban President is not facing legal charges in the US, making any intervention legally questionable. However, he suggested a naval quarantine or blockade, similar to threats made against Venezuela, as a viable option. Such a blockade, preventing oil imports, could “starve the nation” and compel the Cuban government to negotiate.

Geopolitical Considerations: Russia & China

While Russia and China have condemned the US actions in Venezuela, including what they termed the “abduction of Maduro,” Grant believes their ability to counter US actions in the Western Hemisphere is limited. Their geographical distance prevents a military response, and while they could pursue diplomatic avenues like a UN Security Council meeting, the US veto power effectively negates this option.

Trump’s Vision for the Western Hemisphere: The “Donro Doctrine”

Grant characterized Trump’s recent actions as reflecting a broader vision of the Western Hemisphere as a US sphere of influence. He described this as a “new corollary to the Monroe Doctrine,” which Trump refers to as the “Donro Doctrine.” This doctrine asserts the need for the US to be “preeminent or even predominant” in the region, requiring other countries to be “friends of or at least compliant with the United States.” This ambition is further illustrated by Trump’s proposals for Canada to become the 51st US state and for Denmark to cede Greenland.

Data & Statistics

• Venezuela as Oil Supplier: Venezuela was Cuba’s largest oil supplier in the previous year. (Specific quantities not provided in the transcript).
• US Veto Power: The US holds veto power in the UN Security Council, limiting the effectiveness of potential resolutions against its actions.

Synthesis/Conclusion

The US is significantly increasing pressure on Cuba, leveraging its influence in the region following developments in Venezuela. The core strategy revolves around restricting Cuba’s access to vital oil supplies, potentially through naval interdiction or a blockade. While the possibility of a direct military intervention appears unlikely, the US is signaling a willingness to employ economic coercion to compel Cuba to negotiate. This approach is rooted in a broader geopolitical vision, articulated as the “Donro Doctrine,” which prioritizes US dominance in the Western Hemisphere, and is unlikely to be effectively challenged by external powers like Russia and China.