US strike on #Venezuela could impact global crude #oil prices.

Key Concepts

• Naroterrorism: The charging of Nicholas Maduro with this crime signifies linking drug trafficking to terrorist activities.
• Trigger-Based Mission: A military operation contingent on specific conditions being met, justifying the lack of prior Congressional notification.
• Strategic Oil Reserves: Venezuela’s substantial oil reserves (300+ billion barrels) and their potential impact on global oil markets.
• Military Intervention: The unprecedented US military operation in Venezuela, described as comparable to WWII-era assaults.
• Transitional Government: The stated US intention to oversee a transition of power in Venezuela following Maduro’s capture.

Capture of Nicholas Maduro & US Military Operation in Venezuela

The United States military has reportedly captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores, following a large-scale military operation in Caracas. This operation, described as an “assault like people have not seen since World War II,” involved over 150 aircraft – including bombers, fighters, intelligence, reconnaissance, surveillance, and rotary-wing aircraft. Satellite imagery from Vantor demonstrates visible damage to sites within Caracas resulting from the strikes. Maduro and Flores have been indicted in the Southern District of New York, facing charges including “naroterrorism conspiracy.” Attorney General Pam Bondi confirmed these indictments.

Justification for the Operation & Lack of Congressional Notification

The operation was characterized as a “trigger-based mission,” meaning it was dependent on specific conditions being met over several days. This justification was used by President Trump and Secretary Rubio to defend the lack of prior Congressional notification. As stated, “This was not the kind of mission that you can do congressional notification on…It was a trigger-based mission in which conditions had to be met night after night.” Concerns were raised regarding potential leaks from Congress, which officials believed could have jeopardized the mission’s success. A statement highlighted, “Congress has a tendency to leak. This would not be good. If they leaked, General, I think it would have been maybe a very different result.”

President Trump’s Direct Involvement & Maduro’s Opportunity to Surrender

President Trump revealed he had recently spoken directly with Maduro, offering him an opportunity to surrender. He stated, “I did have conversations with him and I said, ‘You got to surrender.’ And I actually thought he was pretty close to doing so, but now he wished he did.” This sentiment was echoed with the phrase, “Nicholas Maduro had his chance just like Iran had their chance until they didn’t. He effed around.” This suggests a perceived unwillingness on Maduro’s part to relinquish power peacefully.

Post-Maduro Venezuela & Global Oil Implications

The US intends to maintain a presence in Venezuela “until such time as a proper transition can take place,” effectively overseeing the country’s future governance. A significant aspect of this situation is Venezuela’s vast oil reserves, estimated at over 300 billion barrels. The control and future of this stockpile are expected to have a substantial impact on global crude oil prices. This potential disruption to the oil market is a key factor for businesses to monitor.

Criticism & Legal Considerations

The mission has faced criticism from some members of Congress due to the absence of Congressional approval. However, the administration defended its actions, citing the nature of the operation and the need for secrecy. The legal basis for the intervention, beyond the naroterrorism charges, remains a point of potential contention.

Conclusion

The US military’s capture of Nicolás Maduro represents a dramatic and unprecedented intervention in Venezuelan affairs. The operation, justified as a “trigger-based mission” and driven by concerns over naroterrorism, has significant geopolitical and economic implications, particularly regarding Venezuela’s oil reserves and the future stability of the region. The lack of Congressional notification and the potential for prolonged US involvement raise complex legal and political questions. The core message conveyed is a warning against resisting US demands, encapsulated in the repeated phrase, “He effed around and he found out.”