US-Russia officials holding Ukraine talks in Saudi, as Russian drone attacks continue | BBC News

Key Concepts:

• Ceasefire negotiations between the US and Russia regarding the war in Ukraine, held in Saudi Arabia.
• Black Sea grain deal revival and its technical details.
• Sanctions relief for Russia in exchange for grain exports.
• US approach under a potential Trump administration vs. the Biden administration and NATO.
• Ukrainian perspective on negotiations and dealing with Putin.
• Impact of US support and potential shifts in policy.

1. Resumption of Ceasefire Talks and US Involvement

• Talks between the US and Russia aimed at achieving a ceasefire in Ukraine have resumed in Saudi Arabia, according to Russia's news agency TASS.
• Steve Witkoff, President Trump's special envoy, expressed confidence in making real progress.
• The US aims to secure a ceasefire in the Black Sea, building on Putin's previous statement about a 30-day pause on attacks on energy infrastructure.
• The US delegation held productive talks with Ukrainian counterparts in Riyadh.

2. Black Sea Grain Deal Revival

• The focus of the talks is on the technical details of reviving the Black Sea grain deal.
• The original 2022 deal allowed Ukraine to export grain from its Black Sea ports without Russian attacks, in exchange for Russia exporting its farm produce and receiving sanctions relief.
• Russia withdrew from the deal a year later, citing dissatisfaction with the lack of sanctions relief.
• Russia wants to revive the deal as its economy faces difficulties due to sanctions.

3. Limited Aims and Incremental Progress

• Expectations for a comprehensive 30-day ceasefire have been dialed back.
• The immediate aim is to achieve a limited agreement on the Black Sea grain deal.
• The US hopes to build on this to achieve a full ceasefire that protects energy infrastructure and eventually stops the fighting on land.
• There is limited appetite from Moscow to stop the fighting on land, as Russian forces are slowly advancing.

4. Divergent Views and Demands

• A significant gap exists between what Ukraine and Russia are willing to accept regarding a ceasefire.
• Ukraine is still affected by President Zalenski's encounter with Donald Trump in February.
• Ukraine is taking advice from allies, including Britain's National Security Advisor, to maintain US support.
• The Trump administration's view is perceived as closer to Moscow's than the Biden administration's or NATO's.
• Steve Witkoff's views are seen as aligning with the Kremlin's narrative.

5. Ukrainian Perspective and Concerns

• Ukrainian MP Alexander Moresco stated that Ukraine has low expectations for the talks.
• Ukraine is negotiating with American partners in Saudi Arabia, not directly with Russia.
• The negotiations focus on technical details, but the outcome depends on Putin.
• Putin is not interested in a ceasefire or peace and is a major obstacle.
• Ukraine agreed unconditionally to Trump's ceasefire proposal, but Putin rejected it.

6. Potential Outcomes and Putin's Behavior

• A positive outcome would be a partial ceasefire regarding critical energy infrastructure.
• Putin has a history of making promises and violating them immediately.
• Negotiations are not effective with Putin, as he does not honor agreements.
• The only way to deal with Putin is from a position of strength.
• Increased pressure through sanctions on Russian energy, banking, and financial sectors, as well as secondary sanctions, is necessary.
• Providing more military aid to Ukraine is also crucial.

7. Criticism of US Envoy's Statements

• Ukrainian officials expressed disappointment and shock at statements made by Trump's envoy, Steve Witkoff.
• Witkoff's statements are seen as echoing Putin's propaganda.
• There are concerns that Witkoff is either unprofessional or acting in Putin's interests.
• President Trump should clarify that the US will continue to support Ukraine's territorial integrity.

8. Conclusion

The negotiations in Saudi Arabia represent an attempt to de-escalate the conflict in Ukraine, primarily through reviving the Black Sea grain deal and potentially establishing a limited ceasefire. However, significant challenges remain due to divergent views between Ukraine and Russia, Putin's perceived unreliability, and concerns about the US approach under a potential Trump administration. The Ukrainian perspective emphasizes the need for continued pressure on Russia through sanctions and military aid, while also expressing concerns about the US envoy's alignment with Russian propaganda. The success of these talks hinges on addressing these challenges and finding a way to incentivize Russia to adhere to any agreements reached.