US remains vital to continued peace, stability and prosperity of Southeast Asia, says PM Wong

Key Concepts

• US Role in Southeast Asian Peace and Stability: The importance of US leadership in maintaining peace and stability in the region, particularly during times of tension.
• ASEAN-US Partnership: The mutually beneficial nature of the collaboration between ASEAN and the US, encompassing trade, economic growth, and future development in digital economy and energy.
• US-China Rivalry and Balancing: The complex interplay between US and China's influence in Southeast Asia, and ASEAN's desire to engage with both.
• Intra-ASEAN Trade: The challenges and opportunities in boosting trade among ASEAN member states, independent of external influences.
• South China Sea Code of Conduct: The ongoing efforts and difficulties in establishing a code of conduct with China to manage interactions in the South China Sea.
• Thailand-Cambodia Peace Deal: The role of US diplomacy in facilitating a peace agreement between Thailand and Cambodia, and its potential as a model for other flashpoints.
• Myanmar Crisis: The deep domestic issues and the need for willingness to compromise for peace in Myanmar, with ASEAN taking a persistent approach.
• Tariffs and Trade Barriers: The impact of US tariffs on ASEAN economies and the obstacles to increasing intra-ASEAN trade, including non-tariff measures and disguised protectionism.
• Managed Competition: The potential for a "managed competition" approach between the US and China, driven by practical deal-making.

US Cruciality to Southeast Asian Peace and Stability

Prime Minister Lawrence Wong of Singapore emphasized the indispensable role of the United States in upholding peace and parity in Southeast Asia. He stated that continued US actions and leadership have been instrumental in the region's prosperity. During the ASEAN-US summit in Kuala Lumpur, Wong highlighted that in past periods of high tension and regional fragmentation, it was US leadership that secured peace and stability. He commended recent US efforts, including President Trump's involvement in peace initiatives between Thailand and Cambodia, and in the Middle East.

Mutually Beneficial ASEAN-US Partnership

Prime Minister Wong stressed that the relationship between ASEAN and the US is not a one-way street. He underscored that further collaboration is mutually beneficial. The summit occurred amidst US tariffs imposed on many ASEAN goods, which directly or indirectly affect interconnected ASEAN economies. Wong's message encouraged increased trade with the US, recognizing ASEAN as a growing economy with approximately 700 million people. He noted that ASEAN countries are significant buyers of US goods, ranging from corn to Boeing planes. Future areas of development, such as the digital economy and energy, were also identified as potential avenues for strengthened partnership. Singapore is set to play a key role as ASEAN Chair in 2027, which also marks 50 years of US-ASEAN ties.

Prime Minister Wong's Busy Schedule and Diplomatic Role

Prime Minister Wong had a demanding schedule at the summit, participating in numerous ASEAN and bilateral meetings. These included meetings with representatives from India, Japan, and the European Council. Singapore is consistently viewed as a steady diplomatic voice for the ASEAN region. The consistent message from Wong across these meetings was the imperative of maintaining peace and stability, and fostering collaboration and cooperation for continued economic growth.

US Influence and the Thailand-Cambodia Peace Deal

Professor Simon Tay, Associate Professor and Chairman at the Singapore Institute of International Affairs, discussed the significance of President Trump's presence at the summit, especially in light of the Thailand-Cambodia peace deal signing. Tay noted that ASEAN has strong convening power, attracting not only the US but also China and India. He pointed out that Trump's attention to ASEAN has varied, and his presence in Kuala Lumpur as a sitting US President is a notable event, following visits by Obama and Lyndon Johnson. The US remains a significant economic and security power, and its role in pushing for peace is crucial.

Regarding the Thailand-Cambodia peace deal, Tay cautioned that Trump does not possess a "magic wand." He explained that deep-seated issues, such as the Thai-Cambodia border dispute, Myanmar's internal situation, and the South China Sea, cannot be resolved with a brief appearance. The US President's presence can draw attention, but the hard work is done by the involved countries and ASEAN. While Trump's threat to both sides brought them to the table, the agreement is a starting point, not a comprehensive peace accord. Thousands remain displaced, and the underlying historical issues and animosity, including business interests and scam centers, need to be addressed. Tay emphasized that the US will eventually depart, and ASEAN must carry the peace process forward. He acknowledged the historical context of colonial-era borders and the recent animosity fueled by nationalism.

ASEAN's Role in Peace Processes

Tay highlighted the crucial role of ASEAN, particularly Prime Minister Anoa, in holding parties together and facilitating dialogue. He stated that ASEAN's ability to bring parties to the same room is vital for progress.

Myanmar Crisis and South China Sea Code of Conduct

On the Myanmar crisis, Tay suggested that peace requires a willingness to compromise from all sides, which cannot be externally pushed. He described ASEAN as the "patient one" that "owns that problem" and will persistently work towards a solution.

Regarding the South China Sea Code of Conduct, Tay explained the difficulty in moving forward. Among ASEAN members, there are four claimants, and there's confusion about whether the code aims to settle claims. Its purpose is to govern interactions and prevent further exacerbation of problems. Tay suggested that US presence could be beneficial by signaling that if ASEAN and China cannot reach a decision or dialogue process, the US might intervene more assertively. However, he noted that for Trump, US-China issues are more significant than the South China Sea with ASEAN.

US-China Balancing and Trade

Tay discussed the US-China trade talks on the sidelines of the summit, suggesting that a deal between the two giants on fair terms would contribute to lasting peace. He stated that ASEAN countries do not wish to align with either the US or China but prefer to do business with both. The ability of the US and China to coexist peacefully is key. He also noted that while bilateral trade deals with ASEAN countries have seen increases, the impact of China's trade figures remains a significant unknown. He humorously referenced a comment about "100% tariffs" as a dangerous prospect.

Roadblocks to Intra-ASEAN Trade

Tay identified non-tariff measures, disguised protectionism, and bureaucratic barriers as major roadblocks to boosting intra-ASEAN trade. He stressed that ASEAN needs to address these issues independently, as they are not dependent on the US. He also pointed to the importance of working with other partners like Japan and China, and within frameworks like RCEP, to progress regional trade.

US-China Dealmaking and Managed Competition

Tay believes that Trump's actions, including securing rare earth deals with Malaysia, are paving the way for potential outcomes with China. He suggested that Trump's practical, deal-making side will be crucial in striking opportunities with China. The question remains whether Trump will view China as a persistent competitor or engage in a more managed competition.

Synthesis and Conclusion

The ASEAN-US summit highlighted the enduring importance of US engagement in maintaining regional peace and stability, as articulated by Singapore's Prime Minister Lawrence Wong. The partnership is viewed as mutually beneficial, with potential for growth in trade and future economic sectors. However, the summit also underscored the complex geopolitical landscape, characterized by the US-China rivalry. While US diplomacy can facilitate peace processes, as seen with the Thailand-Cambodia deal, lasting solutions require sustained effort from regional actors like ASEAN and a willingness to compromise from the parties involved. The challenges of boosting intra-ASEAN trade, independent of external influences, and the ongoing efforts to establish a Code of Conduct in the South China Sea remain critical areas for regional focus. The potential for a "managed competition" between the US and China, driven by practical deal-making, was also a significant theme.