US pushes forward broader peace deal between Israel and Arab neighbors. Can it work? | DW News

Key Concepts

• 60-day ceasefire proposal in Gaza
• Hamas' conditions for accepting a ceasefire
• Abraham Accords expansion to include Syria and Lebanon
• Israeli military actions in Gaza, Syria, and Lebanon
• US role in regional peace negotiations
• Golan Heights dispute
• Hezbollah's role in Lebanon

Gaza Ceasefire Proposal

• Trump's Announcement: US President Donald Trump announced that Israel is willing to accept a 60-day ceasefire proposal in Gaza and urged Hamas to accept the deal.
• Unclear Terms: The specific terms of the ceasefire are unclear. Details regarding hostage release, prisoner exchange, and conditions during the 60-day period are unknown.
• Mediator Signals: Mixed signals from mediators. Egypt indicates talks are ongoing, while Qatar denies any talks and expresses pessimism.
• Hamas' Conditions (Mahmud Mardawi):
  • Explicit clause requiring Israel to stop the war and withdraw from Gaza (controls >70% of Gaza).
  • Public backing by regional actors and the US with clear terms of enforcement.
  • Parallel implementation, rejecting a structure where Israel gets everything upfront.
• Skepticism: Doubts exist whether the proposal includes Hamas' demands.

Humanitarian Crisis in Gaza

• Civilian Casualties: Reports of Israeli missile strikes on civilian areas, including tents in Kanunis, resulting in numerous deaths.
• Hamas' Claims: Hamas-run health ministry claims over 56,000 Palestinians have been killed since October 2023, without differentiating between fighters and civilians.
• Israeli Military Statement: Claims to be targeting Hamas military infrastructure and eliminating "dozens of terrorists" without addressing civilian casualties.

Regional Implications and Abraham Accords

• Broader Deal: US aims for a broader deal including Israel's neighbors, Syria and Lebanon.
• Israeli Military Dominance: Israel has been using the Gaza conflict to assert military dominance in the Middle East, including attacks on Iranian proxies in Syria and Lebanon.
• Abraham Accords Expansion: Israel seeks to expand the Abraham Accords to include Syria and Lebanon.
• Original Abraham Accords: Signed in 2020, normalized relations between Israel and the UAE and Bahrain.
• Syria:
  • US wants to seize the moment after the fall of Bashar al-Assad.
  • Potential executive order to terminate US sanctions on Syria to promote stability and peace.
  • Normalization depends on who you ask in Syria. Some are exhausted and want a settlement, others think it's unrealistic.
  • Returning to a peace deal might be in sight if Israel army stops expanding and stops operating in territory in Syria.
• Golan Heights:
  • Israel captured the Golan Heights from Syria in 1967 and annexed it in 1981.
  • UN regards the territory as part of Syria.
  • Trump supported Israeli claims of sovereignty in the Golan in 2019.
  • Israel moved into the UN patrol demilitarized part of the territory in December.
• Lebanon:
  • Israel has been operating from a position of strength after a ground invasion last October.
  • Attacks have continued on Hezbollah.
  • Hezbollah was weakened by last year's pager attacks in Israeli operation years in the making.
  • Deep enmity between the majority of the Lebanese and Israel and has been even growing deeper during the uh recent war.
  • Tens of thousands of Lebanese are still displaced and unable to rebuild their homes and return to their towns in southern Lebanon.
  • Talks about disarmingah and other militias in Lebanon and returning to the 1949 armistice agreements between Lebanon and Israel seems to be a realistic approach so far.

Power Dynamics and Iran

• Iran's Influence: Expansion of the Abraham Accords would be a setback for Iran and its allies' influence in the region.
• Saudi Prerequisites: Normalizing relations with Israel has been shelved due to Saudi prerequisites, including a Palestinian state based on the Arabic initiative (two-state solution).
• US Strategy: The US administration is trying to break through via Lebanon and Syria, benefiting from their economic collapse and the aftermath of wars.

Conclusion

The situation remains highly uncertain. While a 60-day ceasefire proposal is on the table, its terms are unclear, and Hamas' acceptance is contingent on specific conditions. The expansion of the Abraham Accords faces significant challenges, particularly regarding the Palestinian issue and territorial disputes. The potential for regional peace hinges on addressing these complex factors and achieving a deal acceptable to all parties involved.