US plans long-term role in Venezuela, taking oil indefinitely | DW News

Venezuela: US Control & The Future of Democracy

Key Concepts:

• Chavismo: The political ideology associated with Hugo Chávez and his successors, characterized by socialist policies and anti-American sentiment.
• Transitional Government: A temporary government established to oversee a transition to a more democratic system.
• Sanctions: Economic penalties imposed on a country or entity to influence its behavior.
• Humanitarian Trust Fund: A fund established to provide aid to populations affected by humanitarian crises.
• Oil Sector Control: The US taking control of Venezuela’s oil production and revenue.
• Democratic Roadmap: A clear plan outlining the steps towards a democratic transition.

US Intervention & Control of Venezuelan Resources

The United States has effectively taken control of Venezuela following the capture of Nicolás Maduro, with a potential long-term presence in the country’s politics and economy. President Trump stated the interim government is “cooperating fully” and “giving us everything that we feel is necessary.” The US has begun seizing Venezuelan oil and intends to control its sale “indefinitely,” aiming to lower global oil prices and generate revenue for both the US and Venezuela’s reconstruction. Notably, no timeline for this oversight has been provided, nor any firm commitments regarding future elections, with Trump stating America’s role will extend “much longer than months.”

The Three-Phase Plan & Concerns About Prioritization

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio briefed lawmakers on a three-phase plan for Venezuela: stabilization and addressing the humanitarian/economic crisis, control of the oil sector and its output, and ultimately installing a new government in Caracas. This plan, according to officials familiar with the briefing, signifies a long-term and ambitious approach, contradicting the initial framing of Maduro’s capture as a limited law enforcement action.

Roxanna Vigil, a foreign policy expert, expressed concern that President Trump’s focus is primarily on rebuilding Venezuela’s oil sector, with no clear articulation of a plan for a transition to democracy. She highlighted the inconsistency between the State Department’s stated goals of a democratic transition and the Secretary of Energy’s declaration of indefinite US control over Venezuela’s oil. Vigil questioned whether Rubio’s plan is merely “window dressing” to appease Congressional concerns.

Rejection of Democratic Outcomes & the Maduro Regime’s Legacy

The Trump administration has rejected the democratically elected president-elect, Amuno Gonzalez, and opposition leader Maria Korina Machado, despite 70% of Venezuelans voting for Gonzalez to move beyond Chavismo. Vigil argues this demonstrates a disregard for the will of the Venezuelan people, who are “ready to close the door on Chavismo” and embrace change. She suggests the administration’s primary goals were removing Maduro and reclaiming oil reserves, with other considerations being developed “as they go along.”

Oil Sector Reconstruction & the Need for Democratic Institutions

Vigil emphasized that rebuilding Venezuela’s oil sector requires institutional changes, new laws, a stable economic framework, and a democratically elected government to attract investor confidence. Without a clear path to democracy, meaningful reconstruction is unlikely. She noted the lack of a clear vision for how the oil sector reconstruction will be carried out.

Control of Funds & Concerns About Corruption

President Trump’s plan to sell seized Venezuelan oil and control the proceeds to prevent corruption raises questions about whether this truly safeguards Venezuela’s interests or simply ensures US control of the funds. Vigil pointed to a previous agreement between the Maduro regime and the opposition to establish a UN-controlled humanitarian trust fund, questioning how the US-controlled funds will benefit the Venezuelan people, given that the current officials are largely the same as those under Maduro’s rule – a structure she described as “the same corrupt structure” responsible for the country’s decade-long crisis.

The Minimum Democratic Roadmap & US Sanctions

Vigil outlined the need for a clear path to a democratic transition, determined by the Venezuelan people themselves, whether through a transitional government, elections, or recognizing the previously elected Amuno Gonzalez. She also raised the issue of US sanctions, which encompass the entire oil sector, financial sector, and the Venezuelan government, questioning whether the Trump administration will remove them to facilitate reconstruction.

She argued that maintaining the current situation – US control of oil alongside a repressive dictatorship – creates no incentive for positive change and could even strengthen the dictatorship, allowing it to benefit from the rebuilding process. A political process, while challenging, is essential for long-term stability and genuine reform.

Sidelining the Opposition & Future Stability

The Trump administration’s lack of public support for opposition leader Machado raises concerns about public buy-in and street stability in a future Venezuela. Vigil warned that this could lead Venezuelans to believe they will remain under a dictatorship for the long term, potentially strengthening the existing regime. She described the current situation as a “sobering reality check” following a week of significant events.

Quote:

“So, what I'm very focused on is what President Trump has said. And so far, President Trump has made clear that his focus is on rebuilding Venezuela's oil sector. He has not said anything about the transition to democracy in Venezuela.” – Roxanna Vigil.

Data & Statistics:

• 70% of Venezuelans voted for Amuno Gonzalez, indicating a desire to move beyond Chavismo.

Conclusion:

The US intervention in Venezuela presents a complex situation with a focus on oil control potentially overshadowing the need for a genuine democratic transition. While the stated goals include stabilization and reconstruction, the lack of a clear roadmap for democracy and the sidelining of key opposition figures raise serious concerns about the long-term future of Venezuela and the well-being of its people. The success of any long-term solution hinges on prioritizing a political process driven by the Venezuelan people, rather than solely focusing on economic control.