US Layoffs Are Officially Worse Than 2008!

Key Concepts

US Layoffs 2025: Soaring past 1.1 million, highest since the pandemic, exceeding 2008 subprime crisis levels.
Job Cut Numbers: 71,000 in the latest month, down 53% from October, but yearly total up 54%.
Year-over-Year Comparison: Layoffs in 2025 are up 24% compared to the same month in 2024.
WARN Notices: Government requirement for employers to announce layoffs in advance, serving as a leading indicator.
Initial Jobless Claims: Tend to follow WARN notices, indicating an increase in unemployment filings.
Company Layoffs: UPS (48,000), Nestle (16,000), Amazon, Dell, Accenture, Nissan, Intel, Microsoft, Target, and finance sector.
Recruiter Job Postings: A "canary in the coal mine" indicator for the job market's health. A decline signifies fewer hiring needs.
Total Job Postings: Declining over the last four years, returning to pre-pandemic levels in 2025.
Applications Per Job: Peaked at 250 in 2025, a 2.5x increase from pre-pandemic levels (80-90).
Job Market Difficulty: Significantly more difficult than 5-10 years ago.
Job Search Strategies: Customizing resumes, targeted networking, consistency, and becoming a passive candidate.
"A Life After Layoff" Webinar: A free resource for career strategies.

US Layoffs Surge in 2025

The latest data indicates a significant surge in US layoffs in 2025, surpassing 1.1 million. This figure represents the highest level since the COVID-19 pandemic and has now exceeded the total number of job cuts recorded during the 2008 subprime crisis. These statistics validate the experiences of individuals facing a challenging job market, characterized by numerous applications without receiving callbacks. The current labor market is described as one of the most difficult in recent memory, potentially of all time.

Layoff Data Analysis

While the most recent month saw 71,000 job cuts, a 53% decrease from October, this figure still contributes to a concerning yearly total that is up 54%. The trend for 2025 is shaping up to be exceptionally difficult for layoffs. Despite the monthly improvement compared to October, the numbers are worse than a year ago, with a 24% increase from the 57,000 cuts announced in the same month of 2024. This November's layoff count is the highest for this particular month since 2022, which coincided with the peak of the pandemic. Furthermore, this marks the eighth instance this year where job cuts in a given month have exceeded those of the corresponding month in the previous year, indicating a consistent increase in layoffs throughout 2025 compared to 2024.

WARN Notices as a Leading Indicator

WARN notices, a government-mandated requirement for employers of a certain size to publicly announce impending layoffs, are examined as a key indicator. These notices are intended to provide advance warning to employees, allowing them to take proactive measures. While state-specific requirements vary, checking these notices can offer insight into potential upcoming layoffs. The data suggests that 2025 is proving to be more chaotic than 2024 and the latter half of 2023. Although WARN notices were high in 2022 during the peak of tech layoffs, and saw another spike in 2020, there is a current uptick in WARN activity, characterized by spikes and dips. This pattern suggests that companies are planning for more layoffs heading into the first part of 2026.

Initial Jobless Claims and WARN Notice Correlation

Initial jobless claims are currently stable but are expected to rise as more WARN notices are issued. Historically, an increase in WARN notices is typically followed by an adjustment or tick up in jobless claims as individuals file for unemployment. Charts illustrate this correlation, showing a steady increase in the black line (representing jobless claims) as WARN notices rise in 2022 and 2023. WARN notices are considered a leading indicator, with jobless claims following not long after.

Companies Implementing Major Layoffs

Several large companies have implemented significant layoffs. These include UPS with 48,000 job cuts earlier in the year, Nestle with 16,000, and Amazon, which has been very active with layoffs, with the current numbers likely being an underestimate. Other companies with substantial layoffs include Dell, Accenture, Nissan, Intel, and Microsoft. Notably, the trend is no longer confined to the technology sector, as retail companies like Target have also experienced significant layoffs. The finance industry is also reported to be heavily impacted, indicating a broader trickle-down effect across various sectors.

Recruiter Job Postings: The "Canary in the Coal Mine"

For individuals seeking employment, the total number of job postings serves as a leading indicator. The number of recruiter job postings is highlighted as a particularly insightful metric, akin to a "canary in the coal mine." When there are few recruiter job postings, it signifies a lack of hiring, as recruiters are typically among the first to be hired and the first to be laid off. Conversely, a booming economy sees a surge in recruiter job postings. The current trend shows a decline in overall job postings over the last four years, reaching a low in 2025 and returning to pre-pandemic levels, significantly down from the peak in 2021-2022. This decrease in job postings, coupled with increased competition, creates a challenging job market.

Escalating Competition for Jobs

Data from Greenhouse tracks applications per job, revealing a significant increase in competition. Pre-pandemic, the average number of applicants per role was around 80-90. In 2025, this number has peaked at 250, meaning there are two and a half times more candidates per job than just a few years ago. This trend, which has been observed for at least 10 years, indicates that the job market today is considerably more difficult than it was five or ten years ago. While there's a slight dip at the end of 2025, the anticipation is for a continued trend of high applicant-to-role ratios in 2026. The advice is to monitor recruiter hiring and job postings as indicators of economic health. If recruiters are being laid off, it signals impending difficulties for the broader organization.

Navigating the Difficult Job Market

The current job market numbers are not trending positively. However, it is crucial for job seekers not to perceive themselves as less valuable or employable due to obsolete skills. The reality is increased competition. To stand out, job seekers are advised to:

Be an early applicant.
Customize resumes: Tailor resumes to specific job applications, a practice many dislike but is essential.
Targeted networking: Engage with the right people through focused networking efforts.
Be consistent: Maintain consistent job search efforts, avoiding the "spray and pray" approach.

The speaker emphasizes that these strategies, while potentially unappealing, are the most effective for active job seekers.

Becoming a Passive Candidate

The most preferable approach to job searching is to become a passive candidate, allowing recruiters and hiring teams to find you. This requires reclaiming control of one's career. A free webinar, "A Life After Layoff," is available on the website A Life After Layoff.com, offering a methodical process to supercharge one's career.

Conclusion

The video aims to provide an enlightening perspective on the current job market, validating individuals' experiences of its difficulty. It underscores that the challenges are systemic rather than personal. The key takeaway is to adapt job search strategies to the current competitive landscape by focusing on differentiation and proactive career management.