US, Iran attack each other again: Is a deal now dead in the water? | DW News

Key Concepts

• Controlled Escalation: A military strategy where both sides engage in limited strikes to exert pressure without triggering an all-out, total war.
• Strait of Hormuz: A critical maritime chokepoint for global energy and fertilizer supplies; its effective closure is the primary driver of global economic instability.
• Asymmetrical Warfare: A conflict between belligerents whose relative military power differs significantly, often involving unconventional tactics.
• Hedging: A financial strategy used by nations and corporations (like airlines) to lock in fuel prices in advance to mitigate market volatility.
• Strategic Reserves: National stockpiles of oil maintained to buffer against supply chain disruptions.
• Lesser Fire: A term used to describe the current state of the conflict, which lacks a formal ceasefire but avoids the intensity of full-scale war.

---

1. The Military Conflict and Strategic Deadlock

The video highlights a persistent cycle of violence between the U.S. and Iran, characterized by repeated missile strikes. Despite U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Higgs’ assertion that the U.S. is "negotiating with bombs," experts argue this strategy has failed to force Iran to submit to U.S. conditions.

• Failed Strategy: Fawaz Jurgis, a professor at the London School of Economics, notes that despite overwhelming U.S. military power, the strategy of economic and military pressure has only emboldened Iran and increased its resilience.
• The "38 Times" Statistic: CNN reported that President Trump has claimed a ceasefire was "imminent" 38 times, suggesting a deep desperation to exit the conflict while maintaining a facade of control.
• Controlled Escalation: Both sides are engaging in "managed" strikes. Iran has notably avoided attacking key U.S. allies like Saudi Arabia and the UAE to prevent a broader regional coalition against them, while the U.S. has telegraphed its strikes to avoid accidental total war.

2. Humanitarian and Infrastructure Impact

The conflict has caused significant collateral damage to civilian life in Iran.

• Infrastructure Damage: Reports verified by The New York Times confirm that U.S. strikes hit a water station, cutting off water to 20,000 people for 12 hours during extreme heat (nearly 100°F).
• Casualties: Early in the conflict, U.S. strikes were verified to have killed over 100 school children, a fact initially denied by the military.
• Internal Hardship: Iranians face severe telecommunications restrictions, medicine shortages, and a deep recession. Oil export revenues have collapsed by at least $4.8 billion as of early May, leaving no financial cushion for the populace.

3. Global Economic Consequences

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has created a global economic shockwave.

• Energy Markets: While oil prices have fluctuated, they remain high. Analysts at JP Morgan suggest that about 2.1 million barrels per day are "leaking" out of the Strait via ships with transponders turned off, which has prevented prices from reaching $200 per barrel.
• Fertilizer Crisis: This is identified as a critical, under-reported issue. Before the war, 30% of global fertilizer supplies passed through the Strait. Urea prices have jumped 50% to over $700 per ton. Because "today’s fertilizer is tomorrow’s food," the long-term impact on global food security is expected to be severe, particularly for farmers in India, Brazil, and Africa.
• Inflation: U.S. annual inflation rose from 2.4% to 4.3% in three months, placing immense pressure on American households.

4. International Perspectives and Resilience

• Lack of International Support: No major power, including the UK, Germany, or France, has joined the U.S. military effort. These nations view the conflict as an "illegal war of choice" and have refused to send naval forces to the Strait of Hormuz until hostilities cease.
• National Resilience: Countries are reacting differently based on their preparation. Japan holds 175 days of oil reserves, whereas India holds only 10 days. Some nations are resorting to fuel rationing or turning to Russia for discounted oil to survive the supply shock.

5. Notable Quotes

• Pete Higgs (US Secretary of Defense): "If we need to negotiate with bombs, we'll negotiate with bombs. And we're very good at it."
• Fawaz Jurgis: "Military power on its own, particularly air power, cannot force a nation like Iran—a determined nation that believes its very existence is at stake—to submit."
• Antonio Guterres (UN Chief): "The restrictions on navigational rights and freedoms in and around the Strait of Hormuz are causing hardship and instability across the world."

---

Synthesis/Conclusion

The conflict between the U.S. and Iran has devolved into a precarious "lesser fire" that is neither a war nor a peace. The U.S. strategy of using military force to compel a diplomatic deal has proven ineffective, while the resulting blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has triggered a global humanitarian and economic crisis. With 3.4 billion people living in countries struggling with debt, the ripple effects of this conflict—specifically regarding food and energy security—threaten to cause long-term global instability, regardless of when the military hostilities eventually conclude.