US hints at trade deal with India as Quad nations launch critical minerals initiative

Key Concepts:

• US-India trade deal: Potential agreement to lower tariffs and increase market access.
• US-Japan trade relations: Strained relations with potential tariff hikes on Japanese imports.
• Quad (US, Japan, India, Australia): Grouping focused on diversifying supply chains and addressing China's influence.
• Critical minerals initiative: Effort to reduce dependence on China for resources vital to new technologies.
• Cross-border terrorism: Issue of terrorism originating from Pakistan, raised in the context of a terror attack in Bahalgam.
• Indo-Pacific: Region of strategic importance where China's actions are of concern to Quad members.
• BRICS: Group of emerging economies that includes India and China, highlighting complex relationships.

US-India Trade Deal:

• President Trump indicated a potential trade deal with India, aiming to help American companies compete in the Indian market.
• India might lower trade barriers, potentially leading to reduced tariffs.
• Trump stated that India doesn't accept anybody in.
• India's finance minister recently said that a big good beautiful deal is on the cards.
• India's foreign minister Dr. Shanker said that they hope they would be able to bring this deal to a successful conclusion but they cannot guarantee it because there's another party to that discussion.

US-Japan Trade Relations:

• Trump threatened to raise tariffs on Japanese imports, potentially up to 35%, a significant increase from the earlier threatened 24%.
• Key sticking points: Japanese reluctance to accept US rice imports and trade imbalance in the auto sector.
• Trump demanded that Japan allow American rice into the country, saying that Japan has a rice shortage and the US could supply that, but Japan won't let them.
• Prime Minister Shigro Isha emphasized the need to defend national interest and highlighted Japan's role as the largest investor in the US.
• The priority for Japan remains investment and not tariffs.

Quad and China's Influence:

• Top diplomats from the US, Japan, India, and Australia are working to diversify supply chains due to concerns about China's control over vital resources.
• The Quad launched a critical minerals initiative to reduce dependence on Beijing.
• The group also addressed shared concerns over Beijing's actions in the South China Sea.

Critical Minerals Initiative:

• Cooperation over critical minerals is considered vital for countering China's near-monopoly in this sector.
• Marco Rubio, the US Secretary of State, emphasized this point.
• Having a diverse and reliable global supply chain of these is just one example of many that we can focus on and build upon and and achieve some some real progress on.

Terrorism and Regional Security:

• India's external affairs minister, SJ Shanka, urged zero tolerance for terrorism, condemning the terror attack in Bahalgam.
• The statement on the terror attack, while not explicitly blaming Pakistan, referred to cross-border terrorism, which is seen by some in New Delhi as a clear reference to Pakistan.
• The statement also called for the perpetrators, organizers and financers of this uh you know terror attack to be brought to justice.
• Domestic media in India have been calling this a big diplomatic win.

Diplomatic Nuances and Challenges:

• Each Quad member has its own complex relationship with China, making diplomatic efforts tricky.
• India is part of the BRICS group, which includes China.
• Australian Prime Minister Albanazi is set to visit China, indicating ongoing bilateral relations.

Trade Deal Deadlines and Sticking Points:

• The US set a deadline of July 9th for reaching trade deals, creating pressure on negotiating countries.
• Key sticking points in the US-India trade negotiations include US insistence on opening India's agricultural sector and Indian demands to remove tariffs on steel.
• Experts suggest a mini deal is possible but not guaranteed.

Conclusion:

The US is pursuing trade deals with both India and Japan, but facing different challenges. While a deal with India seems more likely in the short term, significant hurdles remain. The US-Japan relationship is strained due to trade imbalances and specific market access issues. The Quad remains focused on addressing China's growing influence, particularly in critical minerals and regional security, but each member navigates its own complex relationship with China. The issue of terrorism is also a key concern, with India pushing for stronger condemnation and accountability for cross-border attacks. The next week is crucial for trade negotiations, with the looming July 9th deadline adding pressure to reach agreements.