US condemns RSF atrocities in North Darfur, civilians at risk

Key Concepts

• Al-Fasher Crisis: The current dire humanitarian situation in Al-Fasher, Sudan, characterized by trapped civilians, displacement, and a lack of humanitarian assistance.
• Rapid Support Forces (RSF): One of the primary warring factions in Sudan, accused of obstructing civilian movement and facilitating arms transfers.
• Sudan Armed Forces (SAF): The other primary warring faction in Sudan.
• Humanitarian Ceasefire: A temporary suspension of hostilities aimed at allowing for the delivery of aid and evacuation of civilians.
• External Backers/Allies: Countries or entities providing support, particularly military and financial, to the warring factions.
• UAE (United Arab Emirates): Identified as a key external backer of the RSF, accused of facilitating weapons supplies.
• Kufra, Libya: A location identified as a current waypoint for weapons supplies to the RSF, previously a migration hub.
• Chadian Airport: A previous route used for weapons supplies to the RSF, facilitated by the UAE.
• Il-76 Aircraft: A type of aircraft used in suspected arms transport flights.
• Ethnic Cleansing: A grave accusation leveled against the RSF in the context of the ongoing conflict.

Al-Fasher Humanitarian Crisis

Humanitarian workers on the ground in Al-Fasher report that a significant number of civilians remain trapped and unable to leave the city. While the expectation was for large numbers of people to flee to Tila, where international humanitarian organizations are present to provide assistance, these numbers are not being met. A disturbing trend observed is the arrival of children, many of whom are unaccompanied or have arrived with families they do not know. The primary message from the international community to the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) is a clear demand: "Let people leave." The RSF is reportedly preventing civilians from leaving Al-Fasher and surrounding villages, effectively trapping them within the city and its environs. This situation underscores the urgency for clear directives from RSF leader Hametti and their allies.

Prospects for Negotiations and Ceasefire

Despite the United States urging the RSF to enter negotiations, there is considered to be very little chance of this happening at present. Recent negotiations held the previous weekend offered a glimmer of hope for a three-month humanitarian ceasefire, which would have been the first since the war began in April 2023. However, this moment of hope has tragically devolved into heartbreak and what is described as a "massacre." A key reason cited for the failure of negotiations is that both warring sides, the Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) and the RSF, believe they can achieve victory. While stopping external support is acknowledged as a crucial first step to potentially lower the current and future killings, it is not seen as an immediate solution to end the war due to its complexity. Continued support from RSF allies, particularly the UAE, is a significant factor.

External Support and UAE's Role

The United States has stated its commitment to working with partners to find a peaceful path forward, which implicitly involves the UAE, despite their repeated denials of backing the RSF. The question of what pressure the US can exert on the UAE is complex, with a distinction drawn between what they could do and what they are willing to do. Officials within the US State Department have advocated for stronger actions against the UAE, citing overwhelming evidence.

Evidence of UAE's Involvement:

• Suspicious Flights: Justin Lynch's organization has tracked 105 suspicious flights into Kufra, Libya, since April of the current year. These flights are believed to be used as waypoints for weapons supplies.
• Facilitation Routes: At the war's outset, the UAE was identified as facilitating weapons to the RSF via an airport in Chad. Following reports from major news outlets in October, the UAE reportedly shifted its facilitation routes.
• Current Route: The current suspected route involves Kufra in southern Libya. This town, previously known as a migration hub, now sees a significant number of Il-76 aircraft. This is the same aircraft network previously used in Chad and historically by the Emiratis across the continent for weapons facilitation. These flights have reportedly continued even in the past few days.

The challenge for Western governments, including the US, UK, and European nations, is that Sudan is not a high-priority agenda item compared to other crises. This lack of focus, according to Lynch, has allowed the situation to "fly under the radar" and has led to consequences such as ethnic cleansing and the crisis in Al-Fasher. The responsibility for this situation is seen as a consequence of Sudan not being a higher priority.

Conclusion and Key Takeaways

The situation in Sudan, particularly in Al-Fasher, is dire, with civilians trapped and facing severe humanitarian challenges. The RSF is accused of actively preventing their escape. Diplomatic efforts for a ceasefire and negotiations appear unlikely to succeed in the short term, as both warring factions believe they can win. A critical factor exacerbating the conflict is the continued external support, with the UAE identified as a key facilitator of weapons to the RSF, utilizing routes through Libya. Western governments are urged to apply greater pressure on the UAE, as current efforts are perceived as insufficient. The lack of sustained international attention on Sudan is seen as a contributing factor to the escalating crisis, including accusations of ethnic cleansing.