US and Russia working on peace plan wherein Ukraine would give Russia land | DW News

Key Concepts

• US-Russia Peace Proposal: A reported draft plan for ending the Ukraine war, allegedly involving Ukrainian territorial concessions and military scaling back in exchange for US security guarantees.
• Donbas Region: Eastern Ukrainian territory, a significant portion of which is reportedly demanded by Russia in the peace proposal.
• Crimea and Occupied Territories: Areas already under Russian control, which Ukraine would have to accept as part of Russia under the proposal.
• Security Guarantees: Assurances of protection offered by the US to Ukraine in exchange for concessions.
• Kremlin's Maximalist Demands: The most extreme demands made by Russia throughout the conflict, which the proposal is seen as reflecting.
• Capitulation: The act of surrendering or yielding completely, a term used to describe the perceived nature of the peace proposal by Ukraine.
• Shadow Fleet: A fleet of tankers used by Russia to evade sanctions by obscuring the origin and destination of cargo.
• EU Foreign Ministers Meeting: A gathering in Brussels to discuss developments in the Ukraine war, including sanctions and funding for Ukraine.

Draft Peace Proposal and Ukrainian Reaction

Media reports indicate a joint US-Russia peace proposal is being developed, which would require Ukraine to cede territory to Russia and reduce its military capabilities. This news surfaced as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky met with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan in an effort to restart peace negotiations. Turkey, having previously hosted talks, is keen to bring both sides back to the negotiating table.

According to an unnamed Ukrainian official, the proposal would necessitate Kyiv surrendering the entire eastern Donbas region, including areas not yet captured by Russian forces. Military observers estimate that at the current rate of advance, Russia would require an additional four years of fighting to seize this territory. Furthermore, Ukraine would have to recognize Crimea and other occupied territories as part of Russia. The plan also reportedly includes relinquishing long-range weapons and significantly shrinking the Ukrainian military. A ban on foreign troops on Ukrainian-held territory is another component. In return for these extensive concessions, the US would offer security guarantees to Ukraine, though the specifics of these guarantees remain unclear.

This draft plan is characterized as a "worst-case scenario" for Ukraine, with President Zelensky having repeatedly rejected such conditions. An unnamed Ukrainian official, speaking to the Financial Times, described the plan as heavily tilted towards Russia and highly favorable to Russian President Vladimir Putin. This official stated that the proposal is a "non-starter" for Kyiv unless significant changes are made. The prevailing sentiment in Kyiv is that the plan was drafted without Ukrainian involvement and represents the "maximalist demands" of the Kremlin, which Ukraine has consistently denounced as a "capitulation."

President Zelensky's reaction, posted on Telegram, focused on his meeting with President Erdoğan and also mentioned President Trump. He emphasized the importance of coordinated efforts with all partners and strong American leadership for stopping bloodshed and achieving lasting peace.

Despite the strong desire for peace among Ukrainians, particularly after nearly four years of war and enduring hardships like rolling blackouts and horrific civilian casualties (e.g., 25 deaths in Ternopil, including children), there is little appetite for such an unfavorable deal. Even in frontline towns in the Donbas region, residents remain unwilling to abandon their homes and land, despite the constant threat of FPV drones and artillery. The general sentiment is that Ukrainians want a "just peace," not one dictated by Russia.

EU Foreign Ministers' Discussions and Reaction to the Proposal

European Union foreign ministers are meeting in Brussels to discuss the latest developments in the Ukraine war, including Kyiv's most urgent needs, further sanctions on Russia, and fulfilling funding pledges for Ukraine. Brussels correspondent Anchel Ford reports that the US-Russia draft peace plan, which has sidelined Ukraine, is a significant topic.

European leaders were not consulted on the proposal and confirm they were not shown the document. They express strong disapproval of being sidelined, but more importantly, they emphasize that Ukraine must be involved in any such discussions or proposals. The French Foreign Minister stated that based on what they have heard, the proposal amounts to "capitulation," which the Europeans have consistently opposed, advocating for Ukraine to decide its own fate.

The reported key points of the proposal—ceding territory, reducing Ukraine's army, and relinquishing certain weapons—are seen by EU ministers as offering Russia what it wants without adequately benefiting Ukraine. A major concern for the EU is ensuring that any peace settlement prevents Ukraine from being attacked again. They believe that Ukraine's strength is not only crucial for its own security but also for European security.

Sanctions on Russia and the Shadow Fleet

New sanctions on Russia and its "shadow fleet" are also on the agenda. The EU has been discussing the shadow fleet, a complex problem involving hundreds of Russian tankers that obscure the origin and destination of cargo to evade sanctions. While the EU has had some success in addressing this, it remains a significant challenge.

The Polish Foreign Minister expressed an intention to "shut it down," though this is acknowledged as difficult. One proposed idea is to sanction countries whose flags are flown on these tankers, as well as the entire ecosystem involved, including ports where these ships dock and refineries where the fuel is processed. The EU is expected to increase pressure and impose more sanctions on entities involved in this trade.

Synthesis and Conclusion

The reported US-Russia peace proposal represents a significant point of contention, with Ukraine and its European allies largely rejecting its terms as overly favorable to Russia and a form of capitulation. While the desire for peace is strong in Ukraine, the demand is for a just resolution, not one dictated by Russian demands. The EU is focused on supporting Ukraine's needs, imposing further sanctions on Russia, and addressing the complex issue of the shadow fleet. The core principle for European nations remains that Ukraine must be at the forefront of any peace negotiations and decisions regarding its future.