64,000 is the November number. The US economy added 64,000 jobs in November, exceeding the 50,000 estimate. The unemployment rate ticked up to 4.6%, a slight increase from the previous month. Looking at other data, average hourly earnings rose less than estimated, 0.1% on a month-over-month basis. The labor force participation rate is at 62.5%.
October non-farm payrolls fell 105,000, a steeper drop than anticipated. This suggests a slowing of job losses. The Fed is likely to reaffirm its stance on the rate cut in December.
The change for August revised down by 22,000. This means the total job losses in September or in August, excuse me, were 26,000. For September, we saw a revision downward of 11,000. So, still saw a gain of 108,000 um in the month of September.
The data is mixed, but the first plus reaction very slightly positive here on these numbers. Joe, I'm going to send it over to you first. We were just talking about what we could expect here. As you said, revisions lower for August and September, that big drop in October. What do you make of all this?
Well, we got to look at the composition, but my sense is that's going to be about the uh what we could expect here. The change for August revised down by 22,000. That's a lagged reaction to what happened early in the Trump administration. So, we're looking at futures here and you know because these numbers are more complicated than usual. It might take a little more time for investors to sort of digest them and react but the first plus reaction very slightly positive here on these numbers. Joe, I'm going to send it over to you first. How do you read this jobs report and what is this going to mean for the rates market?
Okay. Well, we got to look at the composition, but my sense is that's going to be about the uh what we could expect here. The change for August revised down by 22,000. That's a lagged reaction to what happened early in the Trump administration. So, we're looking at futures here and you know because these numbers are more complicated than usual. It might take a little more time for investors to sort of digest them and react but the first plus reaction very slightly positive here on these numbers. Peter, what do you make of this?
One, I think that's going to be about the uh what we could expect here. The change for August revised down by 22,000. That's a lagged reaction to what happened early in the Trump administration. So, we're looking at futures here and you know because these numbers are more complicated than usual. It might take a little more time for investors to sort of digest them and react but the first plus reaction very slightly positive here on these numbers.
Peter, what's your take on all of this?
Yeah, I think we're looking at this other data that's coming in and you know because these numbers are more complicated than usual. It might take a little more time for investors to sort of digest them and react but the first plus reaction very slightly positive here on these numbers.
I'm still going to be looking for these revisions here that we were just talking about with Joe that we could potentially have because of maybe an overall worsening labor market here. So, just summarizing here again, 64,000, the addition of jobs in November to non-farm payrolls. At the same time, the unemployment rate ticking two ticks higher to 4.6%. That is a little bit worse than had been estimated here. Looking at some of the other numbers, we've got average hourly earnings rising considerably less than estimated, 0.1% on a month-over-month basis. the labor force participation rate at 62 and a half%. So those are the numbers writ large here. October non-farm payroll falling by 105,000 that is a much steeper drop than had been estimated. So, all of these numbers on balance are mixed I guess is what you would say when all is said and done. And as I was just talking about with Joe, this is indeed a noisy number. So, just summarizing here again, 64,000, the November number. The US economy adding 64,000 jobs in November. That is above the 50,000 that was estimated. However, the unemployment rate ticking two ticks higher to 4.6%. That is a little bit worse than had been estimated here. Looking at some of the other numbers, we've got average hourly earnings rising only a tenth of 1% um on a month-over-month basis. the labor force participation rate at 62 and a half%. So those are the numbers writ large here. October non-farm payroll falling by 105,000 that is a much steeper drop than had been estimated. So, all of these numbers are mixed I guess is what you would say when all is said and done. And as I was just talking about with Joe, this is indeed a noisy number. So, just summarizing here again, 64,000, the November number. The US economy adding 64,000 jobs in November. That is above the 50,000 that was estimated. However, the unemployment rate ticking two ticks higher to 4.6%. That is a little bit worse than had been estimated here. Looking at some of the other numbers, we've got average hourly earnings rising only a tenth of 1% um on a month-over-month basis. the labor force participation rate at 62 and a half%. So those are the numbers writ large here. October non-farm payroll falling by 105,000 that is a much steeper drop than had been estimated. So, all of these numbers are mixed I guess is what you would say when all is said and done. And as I was just talking about with Joe, this is indeed a noisy number. So, just summarizing here again, 64,000, the November number. The US economy adding 64,000 jobs in November. That is above the 50,000 that was estimated. However, the unemployment rate ticking two ticks higher to 4.6%. That is a little bit worse than had been estimated here. Looking at some of the other numbers, we've got average hourly earnings rising only a tenth of 1% um on a month-over-month basis. the labor force participation rate at 62 and a half%. So those are the numbers writ large here. October non-farm payroll falling by 105,000 that is a much steeper drop than had been estimated. So, all of these numbers are mixed I guess is what you would say when all is said and done. And as I was just talking about with Joe, this is indeed a noisy number. So, just summarizing here again, 64,000, the November number. The US economy adding 64,000 jobs in November. That is above the 50,000 that was estimated. However, the unemployment rate ticking two ticks higher to 4.6%. That is a little bit worse than had been estimated here. Looking at some of the other numbers, we've got average hourly earnings rising only a tenth of 1% um on a month-over-month basis. the labor force participation rate at 62 and a half%. So those are the numbers writ large here. October non-farm payroll falling by 105,000 that is a much steeper drop than had been estimated. So, all of these numbers are mixed I guess is what you would say when all is said and done. And as I was just talking about with Joe, this is indeed a noisy number. So, just summarizing here again, 64,000, the November number. The US economy adding 64,000 jobs in November. That is above the 50,000 that was estimated. However, the unemployment rate ticking two ticks higher to 4.6%. That is a little bit worse than had been estimated here. Looking at some of the other numbers, we've got average hourly earnings rising only a tenth of 1% um on a month-over-month basis. the labor force participation rate at 62 and a half%. So those are the numbers writ large here. October non-farm payroll falling by 105,000 that is a much steeper drop than had been estimated. So, all of these numbers are mixed I guess is what you would say when all is said and done. And as I was just talking about with Joe, this is indeed a noisy number. So, just summarizing here again, 64,000, the November number. The US economy adding 64,000 jobs in November. That is above the 50,000 that was estimated. However, the unemployment rate ticking two ticks higher to 4.6%. That is a little bit worse than had been estimated here. Looking at some of the other numbers, we've got average hourly earnings rising only a tenth of 1% um on a month-over-month basis. the labor force participation rate at 62 and a half%. So those are the numbers writ large here. October non-farm payroll falling by 105,000 that is a much steeper drop than had been estimated. So, all of these numbers are mixed I guess is what you would say when all is said and done. And as I was just talking about with Joe, this is indeed a noisy number. So, just summarizing here again, 64,000, the November number. The US economy adding 64,000 jobs in November. That is above the 50,000 that was estimated. However, the unemployment rate ticking two ticks higher to 4.6%. That is a little bit worse than had been estimated here. Looking at some of the other numbers, we've got average hourly earnings rising only a tenth of 1% um on a month-over-month basis. the labor force participation rate at 62 and a half%. So those are the numbers writ large here. October non-farm payroll falling by 105,000 that is a much steeper drop than had been estimated. So, all of these numbers are mixed I guess is what you would say when all is said and done. And as I was just talking about with Joe, this is indeed a noisy number. So, just summarizing here again, 64,000, the November number. The US economy adding 64,000 jobs in November. That is above the 50,000 that was estimated. However, the unemployment rate ticking two ticks higher to 4.6%. That is a little bit worse than had been estimated here. Looking at some of the other numbers, we've got average hourly earnings rising only a tenth of 1% um on a month-over-month basis. the labor force participation rate at 62 and a half%. So those are the numbers writ large here. October non-farm payroll falling by 105,000 that is a much steeper drop than had been estimated. So, all of these numbers are mixed I guess is what you would say when all is said and done. And as I was just talking about with Joe, this is indeed a noisy number. So, just summarizing here again, 64,000, the November number. The US economy adding 64,000 jobs in November. That is above the 50,000 that was estimated. However, the unemployment rate ticking two ticks higher to 4.6%. That is a little bit worse than had been estimated here. Looking at some of the other numbers, we've got average hourly earnings rising only a tenth of 1% um on a month-over-month basis. the labor force participation rate at 62 and a half%. So those are the numbers writ large here. October non-farm payroll falling by 105,000 that is a much steeper drop than had been estimated. So, all of these numbers are mixed I guess is what you would say when all is said and done. And as I was just talking about with Joe, this is indeed a noisy number. So, just summarizing here again, 64,000, the November number. The US economy adding 64,000 jobs in November. That is above the 50,000 that was estimated. However, the unemployment rate ticking two ticks higher to 4.6%. That is a little bit worse than had been estimated here. Looking at some of the other numbers, we've got average hourly earnings rising only a tenth of 1% um on a month-over-month basis. the labor force participation rate at 62 and a half%. So those are the numbers writ large here. October non-farm payroll falling by 105,000 that is a much steeper drop than had been estimated. So, all of these numbers are mixed I guess is what you would say when all is said and done. And as I was just talking about with Joe, this is indeed a noisy number. So, just summarizing here again, 64,000, the November number. The US economy adding 64,000 jobs in November. That is above the 50,000 that was estimated. However, the unemployment rate ticking two ticks higher to 4.6%. That is a little bit worse than had been estimated here. Looking at some of the other numbers, we've got average hourly earnings rising only a tenth of 1% um on a month-over-month basis. the labor force participation rate at 62 and a half%. So those are the numbers writ large here. October non-farm payroll falling by 105,000 that is a much steeper drop than had been estimated. So, all of these numbers are mixed I guess is what you would say when all is said and done. And as I was just talking about with Joe, this is indeed a noisy number. So, just summarizing here again, 64,000, the November number. The US economy adding 64,000 jobs in November. That is above the 50,000 that was estimated. However, the unemployment rate ticking two ticks higher to 4.6%. That is a little bit worse than had been estimated here. Looking at some of the other numbers, we've got average hourly earnings rising only a tenth of 1% um on a month-over-month basis. the labor force participation rate at 62 and a half%. So those are the numbers writ large here. October non-farm payroll falling by 105,000 that is a much steeper drop than had been estimated. So, all of these numbers are mixed I guess is what you would say when all is said and done. And as I was just talking about with Joe, this is indeed a noisy number. So, just summarizing here again, 64,000, the November number. The US economy adding 64,000 jobs in November. That is above the 50,000 that was estimated. However, the unemployment rate ticking two ticks higher to 4.6%. That is a little bit worse than had been estimated here. Looking at some of the other numbers, we've got average hourly earnings rising only a tenth of 1% um on a month-over-month basis. the labor force participation rate at 62 and a half%. So those are the numbers writ large here. October non-farm payroll falling by 105,000 that is a much steeper drop than had been estimated. So, all of these numbers are mixed I guess is what you would say when all is said and done. And as I was just talking about with Joe, this is indeed a noisy number. So, just summarizing here again, 64,000, the November number. The US economy adding 64,000 jobs in November. That is above the 50,000 that was estimated. However, the unemployment rate ticking two ticks higher to 4.6%. That is a little bit worse than had been estimated here. Looking at some of the other numbers, we've got average hourly earnings rising only a tenth of 1% um on a month-over-month basis. the labor force participation rate at 62 and a half%. So those are the numbers writ large here. October non-farm payroll falling by 105,000 that is a much steeper drop than had been estimated. So, all of these numbers are mixed I guess is what you would say when all is said and done. And as I was just talking about with Joe, this is indeed a noisy number. So, just summarizing here again, 64,000, the November number. The US economy adding 64,000 jobs in November. That is above the 50,000 that was estimated. However, the unemployment rate ticking two ticks higher to 4.6%. That is a little bit worse than had been estimated here. Looking at some of the other numbers, we've got average hourly earnings rising only a tenth of 1% um on a month-over-month basis. the labor force participation rate at 62 and a half%. So those are the numbers writ large here. October non-farm payroll falling by 105,000 that is a much steeper drop than had been estimated. So, all of these numbers are mixed I guess is what you would say when all is said and done. And as I was just talking about with Joe, this is indeed a noisy number. So, just summarizing here again, 64,000, the November number. The US economy adding 64,000 jobs in November. That is above the 50,000 that was estimated. However, the unemployment rate ticking two ticks higher to 4.6%. That is a little bit worse than had been estimated here. Looking at some of the other numbers, we've got average hourly earnings rising only a tenth of 1% um on a month-over-month basis. the labor force participation rate at 62 and a half%. So those are the numbers writ large here. October non-farm payroll falling by 105,000 that is a much steeper drop than had been estimated. So, all of these numbers are mixed I guess is what you would say when all is said and done. And as I was just talking about with Joe, this is indeed a noisy number. So, just summarizing here again, 64,000,
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