URGENT SPACEX UPLOAD 🚨 IT IS HAPPENING ‼️ SpaceX Price Prediction

By Stock Moe

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Key Concepts

  • NASDAQ 100 Inclusion: The process by which a company is added to the NASDAQ 100 index, triggering mandatory buying from index-tracking ETFs.
  • Passive Inflows: The automatic purchase of shares by institutional funds that track specific indices.
  • Market on Close (MOC) Order: A trade executed at the very end of the trading day at the closing price, used by large institutions to match index requirements.
  • Arbitrage: The practice of buying and selling assets to profit from price discrepancies, often used by institutions during index inclusions.
  • Dilution: The issuance of new shares by a company, which can decrease the ownership percentage of existing shareholders.
  • Grock: An AI model developed by Elon Musk’s companies, currently in private beta and undergoing rapid iterative improvements.

1. SpaceX NASDAQ 100 Inclusion

SpaceX is officially joining the NASDAQ 100. The timeline for this inclusion has been adjusted: the major institutional buying will occur on Monday, July 6th, with the first day of trading under the new index status being July 7th.

  • Financial Impact: Analysts project between $4 billion and $4.3 billion in forced passive inflows.
  • Execution: The buying will occur via a "Market on Close" order at the final second of the trading day on July 6th. This transaction is executed in milliseconds.
  • Market Dynamics: Institutions have been "front-running" this event by accumulating shares in anticipation of the index-driven demand.

2. Price Prediction and Market Strategy

The speaker argues that the stock is currently experiencing artificial strength due to institutional accumulation.

  • Short-Term Outlook: The speaker expects the stock to rise by approximately 5% throughout the week leading up to the inclusion, potentially reaching the $160–$165 range.
  • Post-Inclusion Risk: Once the $4 billion+ in buying is completed on July 6th, the upward pressure will vanish. The speaker warns of significant "sell-side" pressure immediately following the inclusion, as institutions offload excess positions to mitigate risk.

3. Case Study: Rocket Lab

To support the prediction of a post-inclusion price drop, the speaker cites the recent inclusion of Rocket Lab into the NASDAQ 100:

  • The Pattern: Rocket Lab saw steady growth leading up to its inclusion date.
  • The Result: Following the inclusion, the stock experienced a "bloodbath," dropping nearly 25% over the subsequent three trading days, significantly underperforming the broader market.
  • Actionable Insight: The speaker plans to avoid long positions immediately following the SpaceX inclusion date to avoid this anticipated volatility.

4. Long-Term Fundamentals and AI

Despite short-term volatility, the speaker maintains a bullish long-term outlook on SpaceX based on:

  • Vertical Integration: Management’s strategy of acquiring companies (e.g., Cursor) and issuing shares to fund growth.
  • AI Development: The rapid evolution of the Grock AI model. The speaker notes that AI models are increasingly capable of self-coding and iterative upgrades.
  • Competitive Advantage: The speaker posits that SpaceX’s unique ability to leverage space-based compute (solar power, extreme temperatures) provides a long-term "moat" that will be nearly impossible for competitors to replicate.

5. Promotional Offer: "Code Freedom"

The speaker is launching a 48-hour promotional event to celebrate the 4th of July:

  • Offer: A 3-day free trial to the speaker's Discord community.
  • Inclusions: Access to live teaching sessions, personal indicators, "Breadbot" alerts, and version two of the trading bot.
  • Instruction: Users must use the code "freedom" during sign-up to access the trial and secure the lowest possible pricing for future membership.

Synthesis and Conclusion

The inclusion of SpaceX into the NASDAQ 100 represents a classic "buy the rumor, sell the news" scenario. While the $4 billion in forced institutional buying will likely drive the stock price higher through July 6th, historical data from similar events (like Rocket Lab) suggests a high probability of a sharp correction immediately thereafter. Investors are advised to be cautious of the post-inclusion sell-off while remaining cognizant of the company's long-term potential in the AI and space-compute sectors.

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