Unrest across Iran escalates as anti-government protests continue

Key Concepts

• Mahsa Amini Protests: Nationwide protests in Iran sparked by the death of Mahsa Amini while in morality police custody.
• Internet Shutdown: A deliberate disruption of internet access by the Iranian government to control information flow and suppress protests.
• Starlink: Elon Musk’s satellite internet constellation, used by protesters to circumvent the internet shutdown.
• November 2019 Uprising: Previous large-scale protests in Iran met with a violent crackdown and internet blackout.
• Reza Pahlavi: Son of the former Shah of Iran, currently in exile, calling for continued protests and regime change.
• Regime Crackdown: The Iranian government’s response to protests, involving security forces and attempts at intimidation.

Protests and Initial Response

Protests continued throughout Friday night across Iran, demonstrating significant bravery from participants chanting slogans like “Death to the dictator, death to Khamenei.” A near-total internet shutdown is in effect, severely limiting information access and communication within the country. Despite attempts by authorities to jam it, some video footage is still being disseminated via Elon Musk’s Starlink satellite internet service. This limited connectivity hasn’t prevented gatherings, particularly in major cities. Large crowds were reported in Mashhad, the Ayatollah’s birthplace, and in northern Tehran, with a palpable sense of jubilation and growing momentum. In Karaj, near Tehran, a key municipal building was set ablaze. The sound of authorities responding with force was also captured, with a man heard saying, “They’re trying to kill us.”

Historical Context & Government Tactics

The current internet shutdown mirrors tactics employed during the November 2019 national uprisings. During that period, a week-long internet blackout allowed the regime to suppress protests, resulting in an estimated 1,500 protester deaths. State television is currently being used to intimidate protesters, showcasing “swarms of men on motorbikes” and broadcasting pro-regime slogans. One man on state TV stated, “We will not give in to rioters. We will put them in their place.” Another proclaimed, “Our master is not Trump,” while others shouted, “We give our life for our master. We give our life for this flag.” This demonstrates the regime’s attempt to rally support and portray the protests as foreign-influenced.

The Return of the Shah’s Heir & Potential for Change

A significant development is the re-emergence of Reza Pahlavi, the son of the former Shah, who has been in exile in the US. He is actively calling for protesters to continue, urging them to seize city centers and for key workers to strike. Pahlavi stated, “I too am preparing to return to the homeland so that at the time of our national revolution's victory, I can be beside you, the great nation of Iran. I believe that day is very near.” The chanting of slogans like “Long live the Shah” and “The Shah for eternity,” previously unthinkable, indicates a potential shift in public sentiment and bolsters Pahlavi’s confidence. The extent of his support within Iran remains unclear.

International Involvement & Regime Weakness

Donald Trump has reiterated his threats to intervene if the regime resorts to violence against protesters, stating, “I've made the statement very strongly that if they start killing people like they have in the past, we will get involved. We'll be hitting them very hard where it hurts. And that doesn't mean boots on the ground, but it means hitting them very, very hard where it hurts.” The Iranian regime is currently weaker than it has been in recent history, following strikes by both Israel and the US in the 12-day war last year. However, the security forces remain numerous, under orders, and show no signs of backing down.

Conclusion

The protests in Iran represent a significant challenge to the current regime, fueled by widespread anger over the death of Mahsa Amini and decades of social and political restrictions. The government’s response, characterized by internet shutdowns and potential for violent crackdown, echoes past suppression tactics. The involvement of figures like Reza Pahlavi and the potential for international intervention add further complexity to the situation. Despite the regime’s strength in security forces, its weakened state following recent conflicts and the unwavering bravery of the protesters suggest a volatile and potentially transformative period for Iran.