United Arab Emirates to withdraw forces from Yemen after Saudi strike | DW News

Key Concepts

• Houthi Rebels: An armed group that seized control of Yemen’s capital, Sanaa, in 2014, leading to the ongoing civil war.
• Southern Transitional Council (STC): A separatist group aiming to revive an independent South Yemen, backed (allegedly) by the UAE.
• Saudi-led Coalition: A military alliance led by Saudi Arabia intervening in Yemen to restore the internationally recognized government.
• De-escalation: The reduction of tensions and military activity, a potential outcome of the current situation.
• Legitimate Government of Yemen: The internationally recognized government, backed by Saudi Arabia.
• Arab Coalition: The alliance of countries supporting the legitimate government of Yemen, primarily led by Saudi Arabia and formerly including significant UAE involvement.

UAE Troop Withdrawal from Yemen: A Shifting Alliance

Introduction

The United Arab Emirates (UAE) has announced the withdrawal of its remaining troops from Yemen, following a request from Saudi Arabia within a 24-hour timeframe. This move signifies a deepening rift between the two Gulf powers, once united in their opposition to the Houthi rebels. The situation has been exacerbated by the actions of the Southern Transitional Council (STC), a separatist group seeking independence for South Yemen, and allegations of UAE support for this group.

The Escalating Rift & Recent Events

The immediate catalyst for the UAE’s withdrawal was a military campaign launched by the STC on December 2nd. Saudi Arabia responded by bombing a port (Mala port) in southern Yemen, claiming it was targeting a shipment of arms from the UAE destined for the STC. Saudi footage purportedly showed weapons and combat vehicles being offloaded from a ship. The UAE denies the shipment contained arms, stating the vehicles were for its own forces. The internationally recognized Yemeni government, backed by Saudi Arabia, has accused the UAE of supporting rebellion and destabilizing the country. As stated by the Yemeni government representative, “While we appreciate the former role of the United Arab Emirates in supporting legitimacy, its role has now unfortunately become directed against our great people as it has provided explicit support for the rebellion and fueled internal strife, threatening our security and stability.”

Historical Context: The Yemen Civil War & Shifting Alliances

The conflict in Yemen began in 2014 when Houthi rebels overthrew the Yemeni government. Saudi Arabia subsequently led a coalition, including the UAE, to restore the government. However, the emergence of the STC, aiming to revive South Yemen, created a new dynamic. The Saudis seek to prevent the STC’s advance, accusing the UAE of backing them. While the UAE denies direct support, it has historically provided expertise and armament to anti-Houthi militias, including those aligned with the STC. In 2019, the UAE had already begun withdrawing troops after experiencing significant casualties, retaining only forces focused on counter-terrorism efforts.

Analysis by Yasmin Farooq (International Crisis Group)

Yasmin Farooq, Project Director for the Gulf and Arabian Peninsula region at the International Crisis Group, highlighted the significance of the timing and sequencing of the UAE’s withdrawal. She explained that the withdrawal is a direct consequence of Saudi Arabia’s targeting of the arms shipment to the STC. Farooq emphasized that the STC’s military campaign was a symptom of deeper divisions and dysfunction within the anti-Houthi camp, noting that internal confrontations between militias are not uncommon.

According to Farooq, “The significance comes from the moment and uh the sequencing of events of this withdrawal…after losses in life and sacrifices that actually really marked the UAE as a nation, they have decided to only keep uh some of the experts and forces that support in countering terrorism in Yemen.”

Impact on Yemen & the Peace Process

The current situation weakens the anti-Houthi campaign, potentially strengthening the Houthis’ negotiating position with Saudi Arabia and the international community. Farooq suggests the need to address the internal dysfunctions within the anti-Houthi camp to prevent further military clashes. The conflict has also distracted attention from the UN-sponsored roadmap for a political solution.

Regional Implications & Potential for Spillover

While the risk of direct conflict spilling over into other Gulf countries is considered low, both Saudi Arabia and the UAE recognize the strategic importance of their bilateral relationship and are likely to de-escalate. However, the core policy differences between the two countries could have an impact in the Horn of Africa, Sudan, and around the Red Sea. Farooq stated, “But yesterday was definitely an escalation. Where we could see an impact of this rift would be in the Horn of Africa, in Sudan, around the Red Sea because the core differences, the core bilateral differences between the two countries are still not addressed.”

Conclusion

The UAE’s withdrawal from Yemen represents a significant shift in the regional landscape. It underscores the growing tensions between Saudi Arabia and the UAE, fueled by their differing approaches to the conflict and their support for competing factions. The situation poses challenges to the already fragile peace process in Yemen and could have broader implications for regional stability. While both countries appear committed to managing their differences, a frank conversation addressing the underlying issues is crucial to prevent further escalation.