Ukraine would join EU in 2027 under US draft plan • FRANCE 24 English

Key Concepts

• Territorial Concessions/Land Swaps
• Hesson and Zaporizhzhia Regions
• Donetsk Region (Donbas)
• Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant
• European Union Accession (2027)

Proposed Territorial Concessions by Russia

Vladimir Zelensky has outlined a potential idea for territorial concessions or land swaps. This proposal involves Russia withdrawing from very small areas it currently controls in three regions. Crucially, Russia would not withdraw from the southern regions of Hesson and Zaporizhzhia. Russia controls approximately two-thirds of each of these regions, but notably, not their respective regional capitals.

Ukrainian Counter-Demands and Concerns

In exchange for any concessions, Russia is demanding that Ukraine withdraw from the remaining portion of the Donetsk region in the Donbas, which Ukraine currently controls. This area constitutes about 20% of the Donetsk region.

The Ukrainian reaction to these proposals has been nuanced. They have not issued a flat rejection but have highlighted that the current proposals are not acceptable to Ukraine.

American Compromise Proposal and Ukrainian Questions

The United States has reportedly proposed a compromise. Under this compromise, Russian forces would not move into the parts of the Donetsk region that Ukraine would be asked to vacate. However, Vladimir Zelensky has raised a pertinent question: "Who's going to govern it then? Who does it actually belong to? How will order be preserved?" This highlights a significant concern regarding the governance and sovereignty of any vacated territories.

Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant Stalemate

Another major sticking point is the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant. Various compromise solutions have been discussed, including the idea of sharing electricity generated by the plant, once it is operational again, between Russia and Ukraine. However, technical experts have expressed skepticism, stating that it is "very difficult to imagine how that would be done technically."

Ukrainian Strategy and European Union Accession

Ukraine's overarching strategy appears to be one of not issuing outright rejections but rather meticulously pointing out the various problems and complexities associated with the proposals, particularly those originating from the United States.

Furthermore, it has emerged that a potential part of the American suggestions includes Ukraine joining the European Union in 2027. It is suggested that European nations might be the ones to articulate the challenges and issues related to this specific proposal.

Synthesis and Conclusion

The discussion revolves around complex and sensitive proposals for resolving aspects of the conflict, primarily focusing on territorial adjustments and resource sharing. Russia's proposed land swaps are highly conditional, demanding significant Ukrainian withdrawals from the Donbas while retaining control over key southern regions. The US has attempted to mediate with a compromise regarding the Donetsk region, but this raises fundamental questions about governance and ownership. The Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant presents a technical and logistical hurdle for any power-sharing agreement. Ukraine's diplomatic approach is to identify and articulate the practical and political difficulties of these proposals, rather than outright rejecting them. The potential for Ukraine's EU accession in 2027 is also introduced as a component of the broader American suggestions, with European nations potentially taking the lead in addressing its feasibility. The core takeaway is that while dialogue is occurring, significant obstacles and unresolved issues remain across all proposed avenues.