Ukraine war Q&A | Does Putin now firmly have the upper hand?

Key Concepts

• Narrative Warfare: The strategic use of information and storytelling to shape public perception and influence outcomes, particularly in the context of the Ukraine war.
• Grinding Forward: A military tactic characterized by slow, incremental advances, often at a high cost in terms of casualties and resources.
• Fortress Cities: Heavily fortified urban areas that serve as strategic strongholds for defensive operations.
• Ceasefire vs. Peace Deal: A distinction between a temporary halt in fighting (ceasefire) and a comprehensive agreement to end hostilities and resolve underlying issues (peace deal).
• Existential Threat: A situation where a nation or group perceives itself to be under threat of annihilation or complete destruction.
• Genocidal Intent: The deliberate intention to destroy, in whole or in part, a national, ethnical, racial, or religious group.
• Minsk Agreements: A series of ceasefire and peace proposals aimed at resolving the conflict in eastern Ukraine, which have been repeatedly violated.
• European Security Architecture: The framework of security arrangements and agreements governing the continent of Europe, particularly in the post-Cold War era.
• Hybrid Warfare: A form of warfare that combines conventional military tactics with irregular tactics, such as cyberattacks, disinformation campaigns, and political subversion.
• Preemptive vs. Preventative Action: A distinction between military action taken in immediate response to an imminent threat (preemptive) and action taken to prevent a future threat (preventative).
• Rule of Law: The principle that all individuals and institutions are accountable to laws that are publicly promulgated, equally enforced, and independently adjudicated.
• Autocratic Leadership: A style of governance characterized by absolute power and a lack of accountability to the populace.
• International Law: The body of rules and principles governing the relations between states and other international actors.

Summary

This Q&A session with Professor Michael Clark delves into the complexities of the Ukraine war, touching upon military developments, diplomatic efforts, and broader geopolitical implications.

The Shifting Pendulum: Russia's Gains and Strategic Limitations

The discussion begins by addressing the perception of Russia gaining the upper hand. Professor Clark acknowledges that the "pendulum is swinging towards Russia," but cautions against viewing this as a decisive shift. He cites Fiona Hill's analysis that Russia is winning the "battle of the narrative" by creating an inevitability of victory.

Key Points:

• Grinding Advance: Russia is making slow, incremental gains on the ground, exemplified by their capture of most of Avdiivka and advances in Kharkiv. The Institute for the Study of War reported Russia's largest monthly advance in November 2025, capturing 701 square kilometers.
• Tactical Pauses: Despite advances, Russia faces challenges in maintaining momentum due to their fighting style and organizational limitations. They often pause after capturing territory (e.g., Avdiivka, Bakhmut, Lysychansk, Severodonetsk) to regroup, lacking the forces to exploit breakthroughs.
• Strategic Objectives: Russia aims to secure areas like Pisky to control key highways (e.g., the M0504 to Konstantinovka) to enable further advances towards Ukrainian "fortress cities" like Konstantinovka. However, these advances are not rapid.
• Lack of Major City Capture: Crucially, Russia has not captured any major Ukrainian cities. The last significant city, Kherson, was essentially given to them early in the war and they were later pushed out. This lack of strategic territorial control hinders their broader objectives, such as controlling territory east of the Dnipro River to destabilize Ukraine.
• Human Cost: The war has resulted in approximately 1.25 million Russian casualties (killed or with life-changing injuries), a figure that does not appear to deter Putin.

Desperation for a Ceasefire: Ukraine vs. Russia

The conversation shifts to the question of who is more desperate for a ceasefire. Professor Clark argues that Ukraine desperately needs a ceasefire to "take a breath," but will not surrender as the price for peace.

Key Arguments:

• Ukrainian Defiance: Despite weariness and cynicism, and a loss of faith in the United States, Ukrainians exhibit defiance and a sense of fatalism, believing they have no choice but to continue fighting against what they perceive as an existential and genocidal threat from Russia, aiming to erase Ukrainian identity.
• Russian Need for a Pause: Russia also needs a ceasefire, but their "grinding machine" continues to operate.
• Putin's Deal-Making History: Professor Clark highlights Putin's consistent violation of agreements, citing the Minsk I and Minsk II accords as examples. He argues that any deal with Putin is a "waypoint," not an end, and that Russia's long-term goal is to regain its Soviet-era influence, which will likely lead to a generational struggle.
• Western Strategy: The West must manage this prolonged process, potentially through political means, but Professor Clark suggests that at some point, a firm stand with the threat of force may be necessary to prevent Russia from dictating the European security agenda, a pattern observed since 2007.

The Physical Reality of a Ceasefire: An "Iron Curtain" Revisited?

The potential physical manifestation of a ceasefire along the current line of contact is explored.

Key Points:

• Visual Representation: A ceasefire would likely resemble the current map, with a semicircle of Russian gains representing approximately 20% of Ukrainian territory.
• Modern Demilitarized Zones (DMZs): Unlike the concrete and iron of the Cold War's Iron Curtain, a modern DMZ would likely involve fences, sensors, and drone surveillance, with a few kilometers on either side of the demarcation line being a dangerous zone.
• Technological Monitoring: Remote monitoring would be key, negating the need for a massive physical barrier like the Berlin Wall.
• Reassurance Forces: There is talk of reassurance or security forces being deployed in Ukraine to guarantee the ceasefire, though the specifics (e.g., Western forces within Ukraine) remain uncertain.
• Russian Ceasefire Timing: Professor Clark speculates that Russia might be more interested in a ceasefire in the following year, when economic and battlefield conditions might be more favorable to them.

The Trump Factor and US-Ukraine Relations

The potential impact of a Donald Trump presidency on US support for Ukraine is a significant concern.

Key Arguments:

• Trump's Likely Stance: It is widely believed that Trump will "walk away" from current support for Ukraine. The question is whether this means maintaining the status quo or actively withdrawing aid.
• US Support Mechanisms: Current US support includes intelligence sharing, targeting data, weapons sales (to European allies who then provide them to Ukraine), and funding for Starlink.
• Consequences of Withdrawal: Pulling support would be a "cynical" and "mean act," making Ukraine's fight significantly harder. It could be a strategic move to force Ukraine to accept US terms.
• Past Pauses in Support: There have been instances where intelligence sharing and targeting data were paused, leading to Russian advances. These were attributed to individuals with agendas to shift focus to China or to concerns about Ukrainian actions in Crimea.
• Historical Betrayal: Professor Clark fears a "historic betrayal of Ukraine" by the West, leading to an isolationist America and a Europe surrounded by powerful autocratic states.
• Historians' Verdict: He anticipates historians will view Putin as the "greatest criminal of the first part of the 21st century" and Trump as the "biggest useful idiot" who facilitated Putin's actions.
• Pushback Against Globalization: The rise of populism in the West is partly a reaction against globalization and its perceived negative consequences.
• Lessons from Interventionism: Past failures of "liberal interventionism" in Iraq and Afghanistan have eroded confidence in the West's ability to manage international conflicts effectively.
• Putin's Observation: Putin has been observing and learning from Western actions and perceived weaknesses since the 1990s.

NATO's Proactive Stance and Hybrid Warfare

The discussion addresses NATO's potential response to Russia's hybrid warfare, particularly the concept of a "preemptive strike."

Key Points:

• Admiral Dragoni's Statement: Admiral Dragoni, head of NATO's Military Committee, suggested considering preemptive strikes against hybrid warfare threats, including cyberattacks and sabotage.
• Legal Distinction: Professor Clark emphasizes the legal distinction between "preemptive" (response to an imminent threat) and "preventative" (response to a future threat) action. Preemptive action can be legal under specific circumstances, as exemplified by Israel's 1967 strike.
• Hybrid Warfare Response: In the context of hybrid warfare, preemptive action might involve proactively targeting hackers or Russian ships suspected of cable cutting, even without definitive proof of an immediate attack.
• NATO's Defensive Posture: Professor Clark asserts that NATO has never had a plan to attack Russia or the Warsaw Pact; all its plans have been defensive.
• Proactive Measures: NATO could become more proactive by anticipating and countering Russian technological advances in hybrid warfare, but "pushing into Russia is not sensible."
• Potential Actions: Preemptive actions could involve more assertive responses to Russian aircraft near NATO airspace or preventing Russian ships from transiting certain areas, such as the "spy ship" near Scotland.

Ukraine's Internal Politics: Corruption and Leadership

The recent corruption scandal in Ukraine and its impact on President Zelenskyy's leadership are examined.

Key Points:

• Yermak's Departure: The resignation of Yuriy Yermak, Zelenskyy's former chief of staff, due to his office and home being searched in connection with a corruption scandal, creates a leadership vacuum. Yermak has reportedly gone to the front lines, proclaiming his innocence.
• Zelenskyy's Challenge: Zelenskyy faces a "hell of a storm" and needs to renew his leadership style and team. He is urged to be less autocratic and rely more on consensus.
• Potential Successors:
  • Yuliya Svyrydenko (Prime Minister): Considered a strong candidate, competent and loyal, but her promotion to chief of staff would require Rada approval for a new prime minister, which could be difficult.
  • Mykhailo Fedorov (Deputy Prime Minister): A young, effective technologist, but his political clout and "toughness" for a chief of staff role are questioned.
  • Kyrylo Budanov (Chief of GUR): Possesses leadership qualities but is seen as a "loose cannon" and perhaps not close enough to Zelenskyy for central government.
• Opportunity for Renewal: This crisis presents an opportunity for Zelenskyy to legitimize himself, build consensus, and present Ukraine as a state governed by the rule of law, contrasting with Putin and Trump.
• Anti-Corruption Machinery: Ukraine's anti-corruption mechanisms are considered more effective than those in the United States currently.
• Valeriy Zaluzhnyi's Role: The former Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces, Valeriy Zaluzhnyi, now Ukraine's Ambassador to the UK, has published an opinion piece outlining a vision for a just and prosperous Ukraine, leading to speculation about his future political ambitions. He is seen as a potential challenger to Zelenskyy, but is currently maintaining loyalty.

US Military Buildup in the Caribbean: Venezuela and Narcoterrorism

The final segment discusses the significant US military deployment in the Caribbean, its implications for Venezuela, and its potential distraction from Ukraine.

Key Points:

• Massive Deployment: The US has deployed a substantial naval force, including the aircraft carrier USS Gerald R. Ford, two cruisers, destroyers, an attack submarine, troop ships, and a special forces mothership, to the Caribbean. This is the largest buildup in the region in over 60 years.
• No Invasion, Possible Strikes: While an invasion of Venezuela is unlikely, targeted strikes against what are perceived as "narco centers" are considered possible, with Trump having indicated such intentions.
• Motives: The deployment aims to dislodge Maduro, encourage opposition movements, and deter regional drug lords.
• Misconceptions about Venezuela's Role: Professor Clark clarifies that Venezuela is primarily a transit country for cocaine from Colombia, not a major producer. Fentanyl does not originate from Venezuela.
• Legal Challenges: The US classifying individuals as "terrorists" to justify military action with limited legal constraints is criticized as a tactic employed by dictatorships and a negative development for international law.
• Impact on Ukraine: This Caribbean operation is unlikely to affect the Ukraine war, as it is a separate theater of operations.

Conclusion:

The session concludes with a reiteration of the ongoing challenges in Ukraine, the complex geopolitical landscape, and the need for strategic foresight. Professor Clark emphasizes that while historical trends suggest a difficult path, unexpected changes can occur, and hope alone is not a strategy. The importance of understanding the nuances of international relations, military strategy, and political maneuvering remains paramount.