Ukraine strikes Russia: Zelensky says response to Moscow's agression 'justified' • FRANCE 24

Key Concepts

• Retaliatory Strikes: Military actions taken by Ukraine in response to Russian bombardment.
• Asymmetric Warfare: The contrast between Russia’s indiscriminate attacks on civilian infrastructure and Ukraine’s targeted strikes on military and economic assets.
• Economic Warfare: Targeting oil refineries and industrial facilities to disrupt the "cash machine" funding the Russian war effort.
• Operational Delusion: The disconnect between the reality on the battlefield and the reports provided to Vladimir Putin by his military leadership.
• Strategic Signaling: Using military force to communicate the necessity of ending the war to the Russian leadership.

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1. The Rationale Behind Ukrainian Strikes

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky justifies recent large-scale attacks on Russian territory as a necessary retaliation for Russia’s ongoing bombardment of Ukraine.

• Context: The strikes were a direct response to a massive Russian barrage on Kyiv that resulted in 24 civilian deaths.
• Strategic Objective: The Ukrainian Defense Ministry stated, "the war is returning to where it came from," aiming to bring the consequences of the 2022 invasion home to the Russian state.
• Targeting Philosophy: Zelensky distinguishes his military strategy from Russia’s by focusing on "military targeting" rather than "deliberately indiscriminate" attacks on civilian infrastructure.

2. Scope and Nature of the Attacks

The recent operation represents a significant escalation in the drone war:

• Scale: Over 500 drones and missiles were deployed in a single night.
• Geographic Reach: The attacks spanned 14 regions of Russia, including Moscow, annexed Crimea, and areas near the Black and Azov Seas.
• Economic Targets: Ukraine is specifically targeting facilities that fuel the Russian war machine, including:
  • Oil Refineries: Identified as the "gravy train" generating the revenue required to sustain the conflict.
  • Military Infrastructure: Sites involved in the production of aircraft, helicopters, and semiconductors.

3. Battlefield Reality vs. Kremlin Reporting

A significant portion of the discussion focuses on the internal failure of Russian military reporting.

• The "False Image" Problem: According to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), Russian Chief of Staff General Gerasimov and other generals are providing Vladimir Putin with inaccurate assessments of battlefield progress.
• Case Study (Kupiansk): The Kremlin claimed that Russian forces had captured the town of Kupiansk. However, even pro-Putin military bloggers and analysts have dismissed these claims as "outrageous" and factually incorrect.
• Consequences: This internal misinformation leads to flawed operational planning, as the Russian leadership is making decisions based on a distorted reality rather than actual battlefield conditions.

4. Key Perspectives and Arguments

• Zelensky’s Stance: He maintains that Ukraine’s actions are not equivalent to Russia’s. He argues that while Russia targets civilian areas, Ukraine’s strikes are precise, military-focused, and intended to force an end to the war.
• Douglas Herbert’s Analysis: The foreign affairs commentator highlights that the war is being brought back to Russia to counter the "imperial hubris" of Putin, who justifies the invasion through the false pretense of defending ethnic Russians.
• The "Cash Machine" Argument: Ukraine’s strategy is explicitly designed to degrade the economic capacity of the Russian state, thereby limiting its ability to continue the war.

5. Synthesis and Conclusion

The conflict has entered a phase where Ukraine is actively attempting to shift the burden of the war onto Russian soil through large-scale, targeted drone strikes. While Russia continues to utilize indiscriminate bombardment, Ukraine is focusing on the economic and military infrastructure that sustains the Russian state. Simultaneously, the Russian military command appears to be trapped in a cycle of reporting false successes to the Kremlin, which undermines their strategic planning and highlights a growing disconnect between the Russian leadership and the reality of the war.