Ukraine: How can the security guarantees be made credible? | DW News

Key Concepts:

• Russia-Ukraine War: Ongoing conflict with recent intensified attacks.
• Security Guarantees: Potential assurances for Ukraine's safety post-conflict.
• Territorial Integrity: Maintaining Ukraine's existing borders, including Crimea.
• Minsk Agreement: Previous ceasefire agreement that failed due to lack of enforcement.
• Negotiating Positions: Differing stances of Russia, Ukraine, US, and Europe in peace talks.
• Rule-Based Order: International system based on laws and treaties, championed by the US.

1. Escalation of Conflict and Impact on Civilians

• Intensified Attacks: Russia launched 270 drones and 10 missiles overnight, targeting energy facilities, including Ukraine's only oil refinery. This was described as the largest attack this month.
• Civilian Impact: The village of Risker near Slovian in eastern Ukraine was heavily bombed, resulting in loss of homes and lives.
• Geographic Expansion of Attacks: Russian attacks are no longer confined to eastern Ukraine, with strikes also hitting central regions like Cremanchuk, where a school was destroyed.
• Civilian Sentiment: Villagers express fear and uncertainty about the future, with some considering leaving due to the ongoing danger from drones and reconnaissance troops.
• Soldier's Perspective: Oleg, a 22-year-old Ukrainian soldier, expresses skepticism about the peace talks, noting that "things are getting worse and worse on the front line."

2. Security Guarantees and International Law

• Legal Perspective: Sergey Pikov, former Deputy Justice Minister of Ukraine, emphasizes the need for "real security guarantees" for Ukraine, unlike the previous Minsk agreement.
• Red Lines: Pikov states that legally ceding any Ukrainian territory, including Crimea, is a major red line. The Ukrainian constitution requires a referendum for any territorial changes, which currently lacks popular support.
• Freezing the Front Lines: The idea of freezing the front lines as a compromise is discussed, but concerns are raised about trusting Putin, given past experiences with the Minsk agreement.
• Trump's Position: While Trump has ruled out US ground troops, he suggested potential air support and has directed his national security team to coordinate with European allies.
• White House Stance: Press Secretary Caroline Levitt stated that the US will not have "boots on the ground" but can provide coordination and other means of security guarantees to European allies.

3. Peace Talks and Diplomatic Efforts

• Washington DC Talks: Peace talks are underway in Washington DC, with some progress reported, but skepticism remains on the ground in Ukraine.
• Moscow's Stance: Russia escalated its attacks during the talks, signaling a strong negotiating position and a willingness to sacrifice lives and economic prosperity.
• Putin's Demands: Pikov suggests that Putin enters negotiations wanting to demand and not concede anything, believing he has the upper hand.
• Potential Meeting: There are reports of a potential meeting between Putin and Zilinski, possibly in Budapest or a Middle Eastern country, but Russia is hesitant and wants thorough preparation.
• Lavrov's Comments: Foreign Minister Lavrov indicated openness to a meeting in principle, but emphasized the need for thorough preparation, suggesting Russia wants a deal in place beforehand.

4. Europe's Role and Influence

• European Concerns: European leaders understand that the situation in Ukraine affects the security of the entire continent and have been vocal about their concerns to Trump.
• European Unity: European leaders are seen as allies of President Zilinski, not just out of support for Ukraine but also due to the perceived danger to their own territories and interests.
• European Leverage: Europe's economic sanctions and alternative voices are important, especially from allies like the United Kingdom and Italy.
• Importance of European Support: If Trump attempts to impose a settlement favorable to Russia, Europe's role is crucial in ensuring Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity.

5. US Interests and the Rule-Based Order

• US Interests: Pikov believes that the US is a champion of the rule-based order and that supporting Ukraine aligns with American interests.
• Dangerous Signals: Allowing Russia to change territories by force would send a dangerous signal to other potential aggressors worldwide.
• Support for Ukraine: Supporting Ukraine is seen as supporting the rule-based order established after World War II, represented by the United Nations.
• Trump's Negotiating Style: Trump's negotiating style involves strategic uncertainty, making statements that he can reverse.

6. Russia's Response and Potential Security Guarantees

• Kremlin's Rejection: The Kremlin firmly rejects the prospect of Western troops in Ukraine.
• Putin's Potential Offer: Putin may have referred to a toothless security mechanism similar to what Russia proposed in 2022, over which Russia has a veto.
• Western Reassurance Force: John Hardy suggests that a Western reassurance force in Ukraine should not require Russia's approval, but its success depends on the will of the participating countries to potentially engage the Russians.

7. Likelihood of a Deal and Key Obstacles

• Deal Remains Distant: A peace deal remains a ways off, despite recent meetings and displays of unity.
• Maximalist Demands: Russia's maximalist demands remain a significant obstacle to peace.
• Need for US Pressure: More US pressure on Russia is needed to get Putin to engage seriously with Zilinski and drop some of Russia's demands.

Conclusion:

The situation in Ukraine remains highly volatile, with intensified Russian attacks and ongoing peace talks. While diplomatic efforts are underway, significant obstacles remain, including Russia's maximalist demands and skepticism about trusting Putin. Security guarantees for Ukraine are crucial, but the specifics and the willingness of international actors to enforce them are still uncertain. Europe's role is vital in ensuring Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity, especially if the US adopts a position more favorable to Russia. The conflict is not only a regional issue but also a challenge to the rule-based international order.