Ukraine, Europe, and Trump are in agreement ahead of Alaska summit, says Germany's Merz | DW News

Key Concepts:

• Ukraine security interests
• Ceasefire
• Sanctions against Russia
• Transatlantic security architecture
• Security guarantees for Ukraine
• EU's role in the conflict
• Potential US-Russia deal regarding Ukraine
• Aerial ceasefire
• Denazification of Ukraine
• NATO membership for Ukraine

1. Pre-Summit Diplomacy and Key Positions:

• German Chancellor Fred Matz stated that Ukraine, European allies, and US President Donald Trump are in agreement before Trump's meeting with Russia's Vladimir Putin in Alaska.
• Matz emphasized the need to safeguard fundamental European and Ukrainian security interests and pledged continued support for strengthening the Ukrainian army.
• Ukrainian President Vladimir Zilinsky requested inclusion in the Trump-Putin meeting, prioritizing a ceasefire and strong sanctions against Russia.
• Zilinsky: "If we're talking about Ukraine, there can be no discussions about Ukraine without Ukraine."
• Zilinsky reiterated the need for a ceasefire and strong security guarantees, which Trump reportedly supported.

2. Ukrainian Perspective and Concerns:

• Correspondent Nick Connley reported from Keev that Zilinsky's meetings offer some hope but are a "compensation prize" compared to being present in Alaska.
• There's anxiety in Ukraine about potential promises Trump might make to Putin.
• Zilinsky reiterated that there can be no discussion about Ukraine without Ukraine, despite this being likely to occur at the Trump-Putin meeting.
• Connley noted that Trump has less leverage over Ukraine than Joe Biden due to the shift to cash-based arms deliveries, potentially freeing Ukraine to rely on European support.
• Ukraine aims to avoid a break with Trump and a scenario where Russia is perceived as willing to negotiate while Ukraine isn't.

3. German Perspective and European Concerns:

• Chief Political Editor Mika Kufna reported that Matz called the talks constructive but provided little detail on Trump's reactions.
• Matz indicated Trump agreed with the European position that a ceasefire must come first.
• Zilinsky ruled out ceding territory, citing the Ukrainian constitution.
• The European aim is to provide Trump with bullet points of their expectations to avoid a direct conversation between Trump and Putin about Ukraine without Ukrainian involvement.
• There's a "sober sense" that new facts may be created, leaving Europe and Ukraine to react.
• Matz expressed the need for a larger transatlantic security architecture and security guarantees, but remained non-committal on specific countries providing guarantees.
• There's concern that "anything can happen" once Trump and Putin are alone, causing anxiety for Europeans and Zilinsky.

4. EU's Involvement and Stance:

• Brussels correspondent Rosie Burchch reported that EU officials welcomed the talks.
• French President Emanuel Macarron brushed off the private meeting between Putin and Trump, saying it's normal for the US and Russia to have bilateral relations, but that he would be fighting for a future trilateral summit with Trump and Zilinsky in a neutral European country.
• Macarron emphasized continued support for Ukraine from both Europeans and Americans until a just and durable peace is achieved.
• European Council President Antonio Kosha suggested the US showed openness to sharing efforts to reinforce security conditions after a lasting peace, potentially indicating a shift in the US position on security guarantees for Ukraine.
• The EU has invested political capital in aligning with the US on Ukraine, including increasing defense spending and toughening rhetoric on China.
• There's concern that a US-Russia deal sacrificing Ukrainian/European security would damage the EU's diplomatic clout.

5. Russian Perspective and Sanctions:

• Correspondent Yuri Rashettto stated that Putin considers European politicians weak and unimportant.
• Despite this, Europe remains important to Russia due to geographical proximity, trade, and potential for continued financial and military support to Ukraine.
• Zilinsky believes sanctions against Russia are working, while Putin claims they are not.
• Sanctions have had an effect, but not as significant as hoped. The Russian economy hasn't collapsed, and the ruble is stable.
• Secondary sanctions, targeting countries doing business with Russia (especially India and China), would be more impactful.

6. Potential Outcomes and Putin's Objectives:

• Rashettto doesn't believe a grand peace will be declared but suggests a temporary aerial ceasefire is possible.
• Putin's goals include a change of political regime in Kiev, specifically the "denazification of Ukraine," meaning the removal of Zilinsky.
• Stopping air strikes would benefit Russia by depriving Ukraine of the ability to strike back at Russian targets.
• Putin aims to influence Trump to prevent Ukraine's NATO membership and discredit/disempower Zilinsky.

7. US Perspective and Trump's Approach:

• Correspondent Janelle Dumalo reported that Trump might organize a meeting between Zilinsky and Putin with his involvement if the bilateral meeting goes well, potentially seeing himself as a mediator.
• Trump acknowledges the limitations of his influence on Putin, referencing past instances where Putin ignored their conversations.
• Trump stated there would be severe consequences for Russia if he doesn't get the answers he wants regarding ending the war, but these consequences remain unspecified.
• The White House frames the meeting as a "listening exercise" to better understand what it would take to end the war.
• Trump rated the talks with European leaders and Zilinsky as "A10 very friendly."
• European leaders fear Trump and Putin might agree on a deal over the heads of Ukrainians and Europeans, while also being wary of Trump disengaging from the process entirely if he doesn't get the right answers.

8. Synthesis/Conclusion:

The situation surrounding the potential Trump-Putin meeting is fraught with uncertainty and anxiety, particularly for Ukraine and European allies. While diplomatic efforts are underway to present a united front and influence Trump's approach, there's a deep-seated concern that Trump might pursue a deal that compromises Ukrainian sovereignty and European security interests. The effectiveness of sanctions against Russia remains a point of contention, and Putin's ultimate goals extend beyond a simple ceasefire, potentially involving regime change in Ukraine. The coming days will be crucial in determining the direction of the conflict and the future of transatlantic relations.