Ukraine claims to have damaged 34% of Russian strategic assets military expert says | DW News

Key Concepts:

• Coordinated drone attacks on Russian military air bases
• Vulnerabilities in Russian air defense
• Use of AI and autonomous navigation in drones
• Damage to Russian strategic assets (long-range bombers)
• Impact on Russia's aviation industry and war efforts
• Ceasefire talks in Istanbul

1. Drone Attacks on Russian Air Bases:

• Ukraine conducted coordinated drone attacks on multiple Russian military air bases, some located far inside Russia, including the eastern Siberia region.
• The attacks were the result of months of secretive planning by Kiev.
• Ukraine's security services claim the drones hit at least 40 aircraft, causing billions of euros worth of damage.
• Footage released by Ukraine's security service shows Russian planes on fire at the Ballaya airfield, a Russian air base in Siberia.
• Ukraine claims to have hit more than 40 Russian bombers at different locations, causing around $7 billion in damages.

2. Bridge Attacks in Russia's Bansk and Kursk Regions:

• Two separate attacks occurred on bridges overnight in Russia's Bansk region, close to the border with Ukraine.
• One bridge collapsed onto a passenger train, resulting in fatalities. Russia has called this a terror act.
• A second bridge reportedly collapsed in the Kursk region. Russia is investigating the incidents.
• Repair trains and engineering vehicles were deployed to clear the tracks.

3. Katrina Bondar's Analysis (Center for Strategic and International Studies):

• The drone attacks were an unprecedented operation conducted by the Security Service of Ukraine, planned for 18 months with the participation of allies and international intelligence.
• The attacks revealed vulnerabilities in Russian air defense, including a lack of protection for strategic objects, no electronic warfare, and no counter-drone systems.
• The drones likely used artificial intelligence and autonomous navigation, evidenced by the character of their flight and targeting system, indicating no signal latency and automatic navigation.
• This could be the first instance of AI being directly employed in a special operation over such a long distance, potentially a swarm attack by Ukrainian special services.

4. Scale of Damage and Impact on Russia:

• Ukraine claims to have destroyed or damaged 34% of Russian strategic assets (long-range bombers).
• The financial damage is estimated at $7 billion, but the time required to restore and rebuild these strategic assets is more significant.
• Russia no longer produces Tu-95 strategic bombers, so restoring the damaged assets will require rebuilding its aviation industry, consuming significant time and resources.
• This represents a serious setback for Russia in the war.

5. Ongoing Drone Strikes and Political Pressure:

• Ukraine is currently conducting a drone strike in the Kursk region, indicating an ongoing combined strategic attack.
• This creates significant political pressure on Russia.

6. Future Operations and Ukrainian Creativity:

• Repeating the exact same drone attack scenario will be difficult, requiring creativity.
• Future operations will likely involve different types of scenarios and Ukrainian innovation in deterring Russian attacks.

7. Technical Terms and Concepts:

• FPV Drones: First-person view drones, typically smaller and used for reconnaissance or attack.
• Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Autonomous Navigation: The ability of drones to navigate and target without direct human control, using algorithms and data analysis.
• Electronic Warfare: Actions involving the use of electromagnetic spectrum to attack, protect, and manage the spectrum.
• Counter-Drone Systems: Technologies and strategies used to detect, identify, and neutralize drones.
• Strategic Assets: Military resources of critical importance, such as long-range bombers.
• Swarm Attack: A coordinated attack by multiple drones acting together.
• Signal Latency: The delay in communication between a drone and its operator.

8. Synthesis/Conclusion:

The coordinated drone attacks by Ukraine on Russian air bases represent a significant strategic victory, exposing vulnerabilities in Russian air defenses and damaging a substantial portion of Russia's long-range bomber fleet. The use of AI-powered drones and the scale of the operation suggest a new level of sophistication in Ukraine's military capabilities. While repeating the exact same attack may be challenging, Ukraine's demonstrated creativity suggests that future operations will continue to pose a threat to Russian military assets. The attacks, coupled with the bridge explosions, create political pressure on Russia and may influence the upcoming ceasefire talks in Istanbul.