Ukraine claims drone strikes on Russian bases and bombers: How consequential is this? | DW News

Key Concepts

• Coordinated drone attacks on Russian military air bases
• FPV (First-Person View) drones smuggled into Russia
• Strategic bombers and A-50 AWACS aircraft targeted
• Psychological impact vs. material damage
• Timing of attacks relative to peace talks in Istanbul
• Asymmetric warfare

Drone Attacks on Russian Air Bases

• Main Event: Ukraine conducted coordinated drone attacks on multiple Russian military air bases, including locations in eastern Siberia, far from the front lines.
• Scale of Damage: Ukraine claims to have hit over 40 Russian bombers, potentially causing over $2 billion in damages.
• Verification: Footage released by Ukraine's security service shows planes on fire at the Blaya airfield (location unverified). Ukraine confirmed conducting a large-scale operation.
• FPV Drone Methodology: Reports indicate Ukraine smuggled FPV drones into Russia on trucks. The drones were then launched remotely from the trucks' open trailers to attack the air bases.
• Targeted Aircraft:
  • A-50 AWACS: At least one A-50 AWACS aircraft was reportedly taken out. This aircraft is crucial for coordinating Russian aerial assaults, guiding missiles, and coordinating fighters. It costs approximately $350 million and is difficult to replace.
  • Strategic Bombers: A number of strategic bombers, including those with nuclear strike capability, were likely destroyed or damaged.
• Consequences for Russia:
  • Reduced ability to conduct strikes and project power.
  • Difficulties in replacing lost aircraft due to sanctions and production halts.
  • Maintenance challenges for the Russian air force due to sanctions.

Bridge Attacks in Russia

• Briansk Region: A bridge collapsed onto a passenger train in Russia's Briansk region (near the Ukrainian border), resulting in casualties. Russia called it a "terror act" without explicitly blaming anyone.
• Kursk Region: A second bridge reportedly collapsed in the Kursk region.
• Investigation: Russia is investigating the cause of the bridge explosions.
• Response: Repair trains and engineering vehicles were deployed to clear the tracks in the Briansk region.

Istanbul Peace Talks

• Timing: The attacks occurred ahead of scheduled peace talks in Istanbul.
• Ukrainian Participation: Initially uncertain, Ukraine confirmed that its defense minister, Umeov, would attend the talks.
• Potential Impact: The attacks may strengthen Ukraine's negotiating position, especially after recent Russian air raids.
• Marina Miran's Analysis: The attacks could be a Ukrainian calculation to influence Russia or gain a stronger hand in negotiations. The timing is symbolic, coinciding with the Russian Air and Space Force Day and the second round of peace negotiations.

Military Analyst Perspective (Marina Miran, King's College London)

• Operation Planning: The drone attacks were a large-scale operation planned by Ukrainian intelligence services, requiring approximately 18 months of preparation.
• Asymmetric Response: The attacks represent an asymmetric response to Russia, given Ukraine's lack of long-range capabilities.
• Counterintelligence Failure: The attacks raise questions about Russian counterintelligence failures in detecting the operation's preparation.
• Resource Intensive: Such operations are resource-intensive and cannot be conducted frequently.
• Psychological Impact: The psychological impact of the attacks is significant, sending a message that Ukraine can reach any target within Russia, including strategic bombers capable of carrying nuclear missiles. This message is directed at both the Russian population and leadership.
• Strategic Bombers: The airfields targeted field strategic bombers, some of which are no longer in production.
• A-50 AWACS Impact: The loss of even a few A-50 AWACS aircraft can potentially affect the military situation on the ground.

Synthesis/Conclusion

Ukraine's coordinated drone attacks on Russian air bases represent a significant strategic and psychological blow to Russia. The attacks, executed with FPV drones smuggled into Russia, targeted critical assets like A-50 AWACS and strategic bombers. While the material damage is substantial, the psychological impact of demonstrating Ukraine's reach and vulnerability of Russian strategic assets is arguably more significant. The timing of the attacks, ahead of peace talks in Istanbul, suggests a calculated effort to strengthen Ukraine's negotiating position and influence the dynamics of the conflict. The success of the operation also raises questions about Russian counterintelligence capabilities and the long-term sustainability of such resource-intensive asymmetric warfare tactics.