Ukraine: Can diplomacy alone end the war? - The Global Jigsaw podcast, BBC World Service

The Global Jigsaw: Ukraine Peace Talks – A Deep Dive

Key Concepts:

• Russian Objectives: Territorial control (Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, Kherson, Crimea), demilitarization of Ukraine, lifting of sanctions, limitations on Ukrainian military size.
• Ukrainian Objectives: Security guarantees mirroring NATO Article 5, maintaining a strong military, territorial integrity, justice for war crimes.
• Peace Plans: 28-point (initially attributed to Russia), 20-point (US/Ukraine), Russian plan presented in Istanbul.
• Information Warfare: Manipulation of narratives by both sides, including curated media coverage and disinformation.
• Western Involvement: US and European support for Ukraine, debates over security guarantees, potential compromises.
• Domestic Support: Public opinion in Russia and Ukraine regarding the war and peace negotiations.
• Frozen Russian Assets: Potential use for Ukrainian reconstruction, legal and political obstacles.

I. The Current State of the Conflict & Negotiations

The war in Ukraine, initiated on February 24, 2022, continues with approximately 800,000-1 million Ukrainian troops and over 700,000 Russian troops engaged along a 1000km+ frontline. Western estimates suggest nearly two million military casualties (killed, wounded, or missing) have occurred. Despite ongoing peace talks, prospects for a resolution are dim, with skepticism prevalent in Ukraine regarding US commitment. The core issue is Russia’s unwavering position, which remains unchanged. The episode focuses on dissecting the rhetoric surrounding these negotiations, comparing the demands of both sides, and assessing the actual achievements of the peace process.

II. Russian Public Opinion & Information Control

BBC Monitoring’s Russia editor, Vitaly Shevchenko (himself Ukrainian), explains the apparent support for the war within Russian society. This support is largely attributed to state-controlled media focusing on Russian “liberation” of Ukrainian towns and villages. However, Shevchenko cautions that opinion polls (73% support for the Russian army’s actions) are likely influenced by fear of reprisal for dissenting opinions. Despite this, a significant portion of the population (two-thirds, according to the Levada Centre, designated a “foreign agent” by Russia) expresses a desire for peace talks, indicating war fatigue.

III. Ukrainian Perspective: Resilience & Skepticism

Margaryta Maliukova from the Kyiv team reports that Ukrainian public opinion is skeptical of any peace agreement with Russia, anticipating a breach of any commitments. However, Ukrainians are optimistic about the war’s progress, noting Russia’s slow advance and heavy losses. While opinion polls may not fully reflect true sentiment, there is a demonstrable resilience within Ukrainian society, evidenced by the absence of significant anti-war protests. Instead, Ukrainian society remains firmly supportive of resistance against Russian aggression.

IV. Discrepancies in Frontline Reporting & Information Warfare

The report highlights the disparity between Russian state media reports and the reality on the ground. For example, Russia claims to have captured Kupyansk in the Kharkiv region, but verified videos show ongoing fighting, even with President Zelensky recording a video from Kupyansk to counter the claim. Instances of Russia reporting the “liberation” of non-existent villages demonstrate the extent of disinformation used to bolster domestic support.

V. Analysis of Peace Plans & Russian Demands

Several peace plans have been proposed, including a 28-point plan initially believed to be a Kremlin wish list, a watered-down 20-point plan, and a Russian plan presented in Istanbul in June 2023. The Russian plan’s core demands include:

• Withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, Kherson, and Crimea.
• Prohibition of foreign military activity in Ukraine.
• A cap on the size of the Ukrainian army.
• Lifting of sanctions imposed on Russia.

The leaked 28-point plan mirrored these demands, with some US officials (like Senator Rubio) suggesting its origin was Russian, supported by linguistic analysis indicating translation from Russian. The 28-point plan proposed reducing the Ukrainian army to 600,000 troops, forcing territorial concessions, and abandoning NATO aspirations.

VI. Security Guarantees: A Major Sticking Point

Ukraine seeks security guarantees mirroring NATO Article 5 from the US, NATO, and European signatories. While the US has formally supported European security guarantees, it hasn’t confirmed them in writing. President Zelensky claims these guarantees are “100% ready” from the US side, pending Congressional formalization. However, skepticism remains in Ukraine due to a clause stating the agreement would be nullified if Ukraine attacks Russia – a concern given Russia’s history of falsely accusing Ukraine of attacks (e.g., the alleged attack on Putin’s residence in Valdai). France and Britain have offered to deploy troops as part of security guarantees, but Russia opposes any foreign military presence in Ukraine. The “Coalition of the Willing” proposes a “reassurance force” for ceasefire observation, but its engagement in the event of a Russian attack remains unclear.

VII. Economic Considerations: Frozen Russian Assets & Reconstruction

The discussion turns to the potential use of approximately 210 billion euros in frozen Russian assets held in Belgium (Euroclear) for Ukrainian reconstruction. While Russia opposes this, Ukraine is pushing for it. The US has also expressed interest in acquiring rare earth minerals from Ukraine as a form of repayment for military assistance.

VIII. Key Negotiators & Internal Dynamics

The report profiles key negotiators:

• Kirill Dmitriev (Russia): Head of Russia’s sovereign wealth fund, with connections in both Ukraine and the US (including Trump’s circle). His wife is reportedly close to Putin’s daughter.
• Andriy Yermak (Ukraine - formerly): Former head of the President’s Office and chief negotiator, recently replaced following corruption allegations.
• Kyrilo Budanov (Ukraine - currently): New head of the President’s Office, former head of military intelligence, known for successful operations against Russia, signaling a prioritization of military aspects in negotiations.

IX. The Strategic Value of Negotiations & Information Warfare

The episode concludes that the peace talks, while seemingly stalled, serve a strategic purpose for both sides. Ukraine needs to demonstrate a commitment to diplomacy to counter Russian narratives. Russia uses the negotiations to create a facade of peaceful intent and influence Western opinion, particularly Donald Trump. Ultimately, the current situation suggests that Russia has no genuine intention of making concessions, and the war continues, with Ukraine focusing on survival and bolstering its military capabilities. The war has prompted Ukraine to develop its own defense industry, including drone technology attracting interest from the US.

Notable Quotes:

• “It’s now 10 past eight. When the 28-point plan was leaked, it read to many like a Kremlin wish list.” – BBC Monitoring report.
• “Let's not forget, Ukraine’s security is our security.” – Mark Rutte.
• “Russia shows no sign of abating. No sign of remorse. No sign of seeking peace. On the contrary.” – Ursula von der Leyen.
• “Russia’s ultimate objective is a Ukraine that obeys Russia.” – BBC Monitoring analysis.

Conclusion:

The peace negotiations surrounding the Ukraine conflict are largely performative, masking a fundamental lack of willingness from Russia to compromise. While Ukraine continues to engage in talks for strategic and informational purposes, the reality on the ground points to a continued conflict driven by Russia’s maximalist objectives. The West’s commitment remains uncertain, and the future of Ukraine hinges on its ability to maintain military resistance and secure sustained international support. The situation is further complicated by internal political dynamics in both Ukraine and the US, and the ongoing information war waged by both sides.