Ukraine and Russia fight on despite US-mediated ceasefire • FRANCE 24 English

Key Concepts

• 72-Hour Ceasefire: A short-term cessation of hostilities brokered by Donald Trump.
• Donbas Region: The primary territorial point of contention between Russia and Ukraine.
• Diplomatic Mediation: The process of selecting neutral parties to facilitate peace talks.
• Security Arrangements: Proposed new frameworks for European security requested by Vladimir Putin.

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1. The 72-Hour Ceasefire: Status and Violations

The 72-hour ceasefire, brokered by Donald Trump, has reached its expiration with both Russia and Ukraine accusing the other of violations.

• Russian Claims: The Russian Defense Ministry asserted it "strictly observed" the ceasefire, despite reports of ongoing military activity. Russia claimed to have downed 57 Ukrainian drones during this period.
• Ukrainian Claims: Ukrainian authorities reported continued artillery strikes, drone attacks, and bombings, particularly in the northeast and the Kherson region. These attacks resulted in at least three deaths and seven injuries. Furthermore, Ukraine reported over 200 battlefield clashes along the front line.
• Data Analysis: According to NASA data and the Institute for the Study of War, while military activity did not cease entirely, there was a "significant decrease" in operations during the three-day window.

2. Diplomatic Maneuvering and Negotiations

Efforts to transition from a temporary ceasefire to long-term peace negotiations are currently characterized by conflicting signals and rejected proposals.

• US Involvement: Rustem Umerov, Ukraine’s chief negotiator, met with American negotiators Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner in the U.S. prior to the ceasefire. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy expressed confidence that U.S. envoys could be involved in Ukraine by early summer.
• The Gerhard Schröder Proposal: Vladimir Putin suggested former German Chancellor Gerhard Schröder as a preferred partner for negotiating new security arrangements.
  • European Rejection: European governments, including EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas, rejected this proposal.
  • Rationale for Rejection: Kallas argued that Schröder acts as a high-level lobbyist for Russian state-owned companies, stating: "If we give the right to Russia to appoint negotiator on our behalf, you know, that would not be very wise... he would be sitting on both sides of the table."

3. Conflicting Perspectives on the War’s End

• Optimism vs. Realism: Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin have both publicly suggested that the war is "coming to an end." However, Putin’s spokesperson, Dmitry Peskov, contradicted this sentiment, stating that peace remains "a very long way away."
• Territorial Deadlock: The core obstacle remains the Donbas region.
  • Russia’s Stance: Putin aims to secure full control over the entire Donbas region, including areas currently held by Ukrainian forces.
  • Ukraine’s Stance: President Zelenskyy remains adamant that Ukraine will not surrender the Donbas region.

4. Synthesis and Conclusion

The 72-hour ceasefire served as a temporary reduction in hostilities rather than a definitive step toward peace. Despite optimistic rhetoric from political leaders, the fundamental territorial dispute over the Donbas remains unresolved, and there is no consensus on a neutral mediator. The rejection of Russia’s preferred negotiator, combined with the lack of concessions from either side, suggests that the conflict remains in a state of diplomatic and military stalemate as the ceasefire expires.