Ukraine allies meet in Paris: What could security guarantees look like? | DW News

Post-War Plan for Ukraine: Paris Meeting Summary

Key Concepts:

• Security Guarantees: Legally binding commitments to support Ukraine in case of renewed Russian aggression.
• Coalition of the Willing: A group of Ukraine's allies, led by France and the UK, discussing post-war plans.
• Multinational Troop Deployment: Potential deployment of European-led troops in post-war Ukraine.
• Article 5 Style Guarantees: Security guarantees similar to NATO's collective defense clause.
• Reassurance Force: A military force deployed to deter future aggression.
• Regeneration of Ukrainian Armed Forces: Strengthening and modernizing Ukraine's military capabilities.

1. The Paris Meeting and Security Guarantees

• A meeting is taking place in Paris, hosted by French President Emanuel Macron, involving Ukraine's allies to discuss a post-war plan for Ukraine.
• The core objective is to determine how to deter Russia from future attacks after a peace deal is reached.
• Ukrainian President Zelenskyy wants legally binding security guarantees, not a repeat of the Budapest Memorandum or Minsk Agreement. He desires comprehensive support, including offensive and defensive capabilities across all domains (air, land, sea, cyber).
• Macron stated that Europe is set to offer Ukraine security guarantees, but concrete details are lacking. UK defense minister John Healey also reiterated the reality and substance of these guarantees without providing specifics to avoid forewarning Moscow.

2. Potential European Troop Deployment

• The idea of European troops being part of a plan to safeguard a truce is being discussed.
• European Commission Chief Ursula von der Leyen suggested in an interview with the Financial Times that Europe is drawing up "pretty precise plans" for a multinational troop deployment in post-war Ukraine, potentially consisting of tens of thousands of European-led troops.
• The United States is reportedly on board, with Donald Trump allegedly giving assurances of a US presence to support the Europeans. Trump stated, "There'll be a lot of help when it comes to security... We'll be involved."
• NATO chief Mark Rutte and the British Prime Minister also claimed a breakthrough on security guarantees by Washington, hinting at "Article 5 style guarantees."

3. Opposition and Concerns

• Germany's defense minister criticized the discussion of troop deployment before negotiations, stating, "Those are things that you don't discuss before you sit down at the negotiating table with many parties that have a say in the matter." He added that the EU has no mandate to position troops.
• Moscow is also unhappy about the prospect of multinational troops in Ukraine.
• The deployment of a reassurance force is a divisive topic even among Europeans and skeptical among locals in Kyiv.

4. Russia's Position and Putin's Offer

• President Putin stated he would be willing to meet President Zelenskyy in Moscow, an offer widely seen as insincere and unacceptable to Ukraine.
• Ukrainian Foreign Minister stated that seven countries have offered to host talks, all acceptable to Ukraine.
• Putin referred to Zelenskyy as an "acting leader," questioning his legitimacy and stating he would only want a meeting when all details are ironed out, interpreted as a demand for capitulation.
• Russia continues to intensify attacks on Ukraine, targeting energy infrastructure and causing civilian casualties. Putin stated that Russia would continue pushing ahead militarily if he didn't see "common sense" in his words.

5. US Involvement and Steve Witkoff's Presence

• US diplomat Steve Witkoff's presence at the Paris meeting is seen as a reassuring signal to the Europeans, indicating a more advanced stage of discussions regarding US support.
• Witkoff addressed the participants and is expected to return after speaking with President Trump.

6. Regenerating Ukrainian Armed Forces

• A key aspect of the security guarantees being discussed is the regeneration of the Ukrainian armed forces.
• This includes training from European and other countries and providing the best equipment to enable Ukraine to defend itself.

7. The Likelihood of a Ceasefire

• There is growing concern about ever reaching a ceasefire, which is a prerequisite for implementing any security guarantees.
• The security guarantees depend on an agreement between Russia and Ukraine that would lay out where Russian troops would be, where they can't be.

8. DW Correspondents' Reports

• Namisha Jwell (Kyiv): Reports skepticism among Ukrainians regarding any peace deal with Putin due to continuous attacks.
• Terry Schultz (Paris): Highlights the importance of a ceasefire for security guarantees to be effective and the significance of US involvement in the discussions.

Conclusion:

The Paris meeting reflects the international community's efforts to establish a framework for post-war security in Ukraine. While discussions are underway regarding potential troop deployments and security guarantees, significant obstacles remain, including Russia's continued aggression, internal divisions among European nations, and the uncertainty surrounding the US's long-term commitment. The regeneration of the Ukrainian armed forces is seen as a crucial element of any future security arrangement. The possibility of a genuine ceasefire and lasting peace remains uncertain.