Key Concepts
- Coalition of the Willing: A group of 33 nations, including the UK and France, established to strengthen Ukraine's defenses and provide security guarantees.
- Long-Range Weapons: Missiles and other armaments capable of striking targets deep within enemy territory, crucial for degrading Russia's military capabilities and infrastructure.
- INF Treaty (Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty): An agreement that previously restricted the production of land-based long-range missiles by the US, Europe, and Ukraine.
- Taurus Missiles: German-made long-range missiles that could be supplied to Ukraine.
- Storm Shadow Missiles (SCALP): British-made cruise missiles used by Ukraine to strike targets deep within Russian-occupied territory.
- Crimea as a Center of Gravity: Ukraine's strategic objective to isolate Crimea, making it a political dilemma for Russia and potentially forcing an end to the aggression.
- Asymmetry in Manpower: The significant difference in troop numbers between Russia and Ukraine, making direct land liberation of Crimea challenging for Ukraine.
- Russian Drone and Missile Bombardment: The ongoing attacks on Ukrainian cities and civilian infrastructure, particularly energy generation facilities, causing economic damage and civilian casualties.
- Homegrown Production: Ukraine's capability to produce its own missiles and drones, which is seen as a faster and cheaper alternative to relying solely on Western supplies.
- Air Defense Systems and Jets: Western military assets that Ukraine requests to protect its skies and prevent Russian aerial attacks.
- Military Trainers: Personnel from allied nations who could train Ukrainian troops on modern warfare tactics within Ukraine.
- Command and Control Structures: Ukraine's need for assistance in jointly planning military operations.
- Frozen Russian Assets: Funds belonging to Russia that are currently frozen and could potentially be unfrozen and used to aid Ukraine.
- Phase Zero of Russian Aggression: The perspective that Russia's actions are not limited to Ukraine but represent an ongoing aggression against Europe, including cyber warfare, sabotage, and political interference.
- Article 5: The North Atlantic Treaty Organization's mutual defense clause, which Russia aims to undermine by demonstrating its inability to be deterred.
- Sanctions Packages: Economic and financial measures imposed on Russia to weaken its economy and military capabilities.
Summary
UK Prime Minister's Call for Long-Range Weapons
Prime Minister Rishi Sunak is set to convene a high-level meeting of the "coalition of the willing" in London, urging allies to provide Ukraine with more long-range weapons. This coalition, comprising 33 nations including the UK and France, was established to bolster Ukraine's defenses and offer security guarantees post-ceasefire. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is attending the meeting, having arrived from Brussels where EU leaders agreed to provide financial support for Ukraine over the next two years.
Russian Airspace Violation
The transcript also notes a recent incident where two Russian planes from the Kaliningrad enclave briefly entered Lithuanian airspace on Thursday, prompting a response from Spanish NATO aircraft.
Expert Analysis on Coalition of the Willing and Weaponry
Alexander Har, former advisor to Ukraine's Ministry of Defense and director of the Center for Defense Strategies, expressed appreciation for the UK's consistent support since 2014. However, he voiced skepticism about the "coalition of the willing" if its deployment is contingent on a ceasefire, as Russia shows no inclination to cease hostilities. Har emphasized the critical need for long-range missiles to degrade Russia's war-fighting capabilities and energy infrastructure, thereby pressuring Russia to end the war.
He highlighted disappointment over the lack of Tomahawk missiles from the US during Zelenskyy's recent White House visit. Regarding European capabilities, Har explained that the INF treaty's withdrawal by the US in 2019 hindered the production of land-based long-range missiles by European nations. However, he pointed to the potential of German Taurus missiles and British Storm Shadow missiles as crucial for Ukrainian success in repelling Russian forces.
Har articulated Ukraine's strategic aim to isolate Crimea, which he described as the "center of gravity" of the war. He argued that while direct land liberation is difficult due to manpower asymmetry, making Crimea an "island" would present a significant political dilemma for Putin, potentially leading him to reconsider his aggression.
The Role of Drones and Bombardment
The discussion then shifted to the current battlefield dynamics. Har acknowledged the effectiveness of drones but also pointed to Russia's advantages on the eastern front, where they advance despite heavy casualties to project an image of invincibility. He detailed the daily bombardment of Ukrainian cities and civilian infrastructure, particularly energy generation facilities, which disrupts daily life and damages the economy. Har stressed Ukraine's need for Western missiles, including Tomahawks, to target Russian energy infrastructure, drone and missile production sites, and other military objectives deep within Russia. He also emphasized the importance of components and technologies for Ukraine's homegrown production of missiles and drones, which could be a more cost-effective and rapid solution to coerce Russia into negotiations or a ceasefire.
Post-War Support and Sky Protection
While acknowledging the long road to peace, Har reiterated Ukraine's request for sky protection through Western capabilities like jets and air defense systems. He suggested that protecting at least half of Ukraine or the Dnipro river region could be achieved without direct confrontation between NATO and Russia, as shutting down Russian missiles and drones would not inherently trigger a war between the alliances. Additionally, he proposed deploying military trainers to Ukraine to train troops on modern warfare, reducing the need for extensive overseas training. Har also highlighted the value of joint planning of operations with partners, citing the UK's successful assistance in this area, as well as intelligence sharing and other technical support to build Ukraine's defense capabilities.
Financial Support and Frozen Russian Assets
The issue of funding and the potential use of frozen Russian assets to support Ukraine was also addressed. Har asserted that Russia should bear the cost of its aggression, not just Ukraine. He argued that Russia's actions extend beyond Ukraine, encompassing cyber warfare, sabotage of undersea cables, and political interference in European elections. He cited examples such as alleged Russian involvement in Brexit and the poisoning of Sergei and Yulia Skripal in the UK. Har also mentioned the incursion into NATO airspace and the readiness of countries like Poland to intercept Russian drones and jets. He believes that demonstrating that Article 5 of the NATO treaty is effective is crucial, and this can be achieved by confronting Russian violations. Har urged European nations, particularly Belgium, to release frozen Russian assets, emphasizing that Europe is already in "phase zero" of Russian aggression and that Russia could reconstitute its military forces within five years.
Correspondent's Perspective on Coalition of the Willing
John Sudworth, reporting from Kyiv, confirmed that the need for long-range weapons and financial aid would be central to the discussions at the Coalition of the Willing meeting. He noted that the focus is on imposing costs on Russia, which is already struggling due to the war and existing sanctions. Sudworth mentioned recent EU talks on sanctions and a US announcement of sanctions targeting Russia's two largest oil companies. He described President Zelenskyy's call for "long-range sanctions" as a euphemism for more weaponry that enables Ukraine to strike deeper into Russia. Sudworth referenced Ukraine's successful use of British-made Storm Shadow missiles to hit a Russian chemical plant, underscoring the demand for such weapons. He also quoted President Putin's warning of "serious, if not staggering, consequences" if Ukraine receives such long-range weapons.
Sudworth explained that the Coalition of the Willing aims to bolster financial and military support for Ukraine, especially as US aid faces uncertainty. He highlighted President Zelenskyy's emphasis on European allies as Ukraine increasingly relies on them. Sudworth also touched upon the broader geopolitical context, noting that Russia occupies Ukrainian territory equivalent to the size of Greece and aims to seize more land. He stated that there is no indication of Russia being ready to stop fighting, and therefore, Europe understands that peace is not imminent. The current focus is on imposing costs on Russia to make it more amenable to negotiations and concessions.
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