U.S., China and the Showdown Over an Indian Ocean Military Base | WSJ

Key Concepts:

• Diego Garcia: A strategically important US-UK military base in the Indian Ocean.
• Chagos Islands: The archipelago where Diego Garcia is located, formerly controlled by France, then the UK.
• Sovereignty Transfer: The planned transfer of sovereignty of the Chagos Islands from the UK to Mauritius.
• US-UK Security Provisions: Conditions and guarantees sought by the US and UK to ensure continued access to and operation of the Diego Garcia base after the sovereignty transfer.
• Chinese Influence: Concerns about China's growing influence in Mauritius and the potential implications for the Diego Garcia base.
• "Tip of the Spear": Pentagon term for Diego Garcia's role as a forward operating base in conflicts.

1. Strategic Importance of Diego Garcia

• Diego Garcia is a strategically vital US-UK military base located in the Indian Ocean.
• It enables the U.S. to project power into the Pacific, Middle East, and Africa.
• Currently used for strikes against Houthis in Yemen and as a deterrent to Iran's nuclear program.
• Hosts a significant portion of the U.S.'s B-2 bomber fleet, guided missile destroyers, and large transport aircraft.
• Serves as the "last link in the long logistics chain," allowing rapid deployment of troops and equipment.
• After 9/11, the U.S. shipped hundreds of tanks, trucks, and containers to Diego Garcia before moving them to Afghanistan by air.
• Transporting one striker unit this way saved the Department of Defense an estimated 40 days and over $100 million.
• Home to a space force tracking station for satellite communication in the region.
• Critical in a potential conflict with China over Taiwan, especially if U.S. facilities in the Pacific are attacked.

2. Sovereignty Transfer Deal: UK to Mauritius

• The British government plans to cede sovereignty of Diego Garcia and the Chagos Islands to Mauritius, then lease back the base.
• The Biden administration supports the deal, and the Trump administration sought to strengthen it.
• The UK granted Mauritius independence in the past and paid three million pounds to detach and keep the Chagos Islands.
• In 2019, the International Court of Justice (ICJ) issued a non-binding ruling stating the Chagos Islands were unlawfully detached from Mauritius.
• In 2024, the UK struck a preliminary deal to officially transfer the islands.
• The deal includes an initial 99-year lease for billions of dollars for the U.K. and U.S. to retain access to the base.

3. Concerns About Chinese Influence

• Critics fear that China could capitalize on the sovereignty transfer.
• Senator John Kennedy expressed concern that Mauritius could allow China to build a military base on one of the other 60 islands in the Chagos archipelago.
• Mauritius signed a free trade agreement with China in 2021, and China is its largest source of imports.
• Senator Kennedy blamed Mike Waltz for endorsing the deal, stating, "We got nothing in return when we put this base in jeopardy."

4. Arguments For and Against the Deal

• Arguments for: Supporters argue that without the transfer, China would have leeway to neutralize the base due to legal uncertainty. Legal certainty is needed for the base to operate effectively.
• Arguments against: Critics argue that the ICJ doesn't have jurisdiction over the matter. The base is not something the U.S. and U.K. should put in jeopardy, and the real threat is from China.

5. US Security Provisions and Assurances

• The Biden administration rigorously reviewed the deal and made recommendations to strengthen it.
• White House officials express confidence that operations will continue at the base if the U.S.'s security provisions are included in the final agreement.
• The Prime Minister of Mauritius has stated that he won't allow China to take the Chagos Islands.

6. Historical Context: Colonialism and Displacement

• The Chagos Islands were formerly controlled by France, which administered them from Mauritius.
• In 1814, France ceded both the Chagos Islands and Mauritius to the British.
• Around the time Britain granted Mauritius independence, it forcibly removed roughly 1,000 people living on the Chagos Islands.

7. Senator Kennedy's Opposition

• Senator John Kennedy is a vocal critic of the UK-Mauritius deal.
• He urged President Trump and Secretary Rubio to intervene and stop the deal.
• He believes President Trump was getting bad advice on the matter.

8. Conclusion

The future of Diego Garcia remains uncertain despite the planned sovereignty transfer. While the US and UK are seeking to secure their continued access to the base through a long-term lease and security provisions, concerns persist about China's growing influence in the region and the potential implications for the base's strategic importance. The final details of the agreement are still being negotiated, and the situation warrants close monitoring as conflicts in the Middle East and tensions with China continue to escalate. The direction ahead is worrying.