Turkey’s economy hit as Syrians return home • FRANCE 24 English

Key Concepts

• Labor Shortage: A deficit in the workforce leading to reduced production capacity.
• Internal Migration: The movement of people from one region of a country to another (e.g., from eastern Turkey to industrial hubs).
• Economic Dependency: The reliance of specific sectors (textiles, agriculture) on a specific demographic of workers.
• Post-Conflict Repatriation: The process of refugees returning to their home country following a change in political regime (the fall of Bashar al-Assad).

The Impact of Syrian Repatriation on Turkey’s Manufacturing Sector

The video highlights the case of Bel Zengi, a factory owner in Gaziantep, Turkey, whose business has been severely impacted by the departure of Syrian workers. Over the past year, Zengi’s factory has seen 30 employees—all Syrian nationals—resign to return to Syria following the fall of the Assad regime. This has resulted in a significant slowdown in production, with the factory operating well below its 15–16 person capacity.

Economic Consequences in Gaziantep

Gaziantep, a city where Syrians previously constituted 30% of the population, is facing a broader industrial crisis. Reports indicate that half of the factories in the region closed last year due to the labor shortage.

• Sectoral Vulnerability: Key sectors such as textiles and agriculture are the most affected, as they have historically relied on Syrian labor, often paid below the legal minimum wage.
• Business Uncertainty: Factory owners like Zengi face existential threats, noting that if the labor shortage persists, they may be forced to shut down operations entirely and pivot to different industries.

Perspectives on Labor Market Dynamics

While the immediate impact is negative, experts suggest the labor market may undergo a self-correcting process:

• Internal Migration: Analysts argue that the vacuum left by departing Syrians may be filled by internal migrants moving from Turkey’s eastern provinces to industrial hubs like Gaziantep.
• Temporary Disruption: The current labor shortage is viewed by some as a transitional phase rather than a permanent economic collapse.

The Reality of Return: Challenges in Syria

Despite the Turkish government’s goal to facilitate the return of at least 1 million more Syrians in the coming months, the actual rate of repatriation has been slower than anticipated.

• Statistical Context: Out of 3.6 million Syrian refugees in Turkey, only about 500,000 have returned since December 2024.
• Barriers to Reintegration: Many returnees face significant hardships in Syria, including a lack of employment and income. Testimonies from those who left suggest that many regret the decision, with reports of people warning others not to return to a country struggling to recover from the devastation of war.

Conclusion

The departure of Syrian workers has created a critical labor crisis in Turkey’s manufacturing and agricultural sectors, particularly in hubs like Gaziantep. While the Turkish government is actively encouraging further repatriation, the economic reality in Syria—characterized by high unemployment and instability—serves as a deterrent for many refugees. The long-term stability of the Turkish economy in these regions will likely depend on its ability to attract internal labor or adapt to a higher-cost, lower-availability workforce.