Trump warns Israel against West Bank annexation after Knesset vote | DW News

Key Concepts

• West Bank Annexation: The proposed incorporation of the West Bank into Israeli territory.
• Knesset: The Israeli parliament.
• Settlements: Israeli communities established in the West Bank, considered illegal under international law.
• US Support: American political, economic, and military aid to Israel.
• Political Provocation: An action taken to deliberately cause trouble or discord.
• Coalition Government: A government formed by two or more political parties.
• Brinkmanship: The practice of pursuing a dangerous policy to the limits of safety before stopping.
• Red Lines: Boundaries or limits that, if crossed, will result in a strong reaction.
• International Law: A set of rules and principles governing the relations between states.

Annexation of the West Bank and US Opposition

Donald Trump stated that Israel would lose all American support if it proceeded with the annexation of the West Bank. He emphasized that this would not happen because he had given his word to Arab countries. This statement came in response to hardline lawmakers in Israel's Knesset backing a bill to apply Israeli law within the West Bank, which would effectively amount to annexation. The West Bank is currently occupied by Israel in violation of international law. The bill required three more rounds of voting to become law.

US Vice President J.D. Vance described the vote as a "personal insult" and a "very stupid political stunt," reiterating that the Trump administration's policy is that the West Bank will not be annexed by Israel. He acknowledged that symbolic votes could occur but stated the administration was "certainly weren't happy about it."

Israeli Perspective and Internal Dynamics

Emily Gordine, a correspondent in Jerusalem, explained that Israel cannot afford a rift with the United States, its most important ally. The Knesset had passed two bills: one to annex Israeli settlements in the West Bank and another to annex the settlement of Alfei Menashe, east of East Jerusalem. These actions, collectively, would effectively amount to the annexation of the entire West Bank due to the extensive territory occupied by settlements.

Despite these votes, political pundits in Israel believe the bills will not pass the remaining three votes in the Knesset due to US opposition. Prime Minister Netanyahu had called the vote a "deliberate political provocation by the opposition to sow discord during Vance's visit," attempting to distance himself from the move. However, it is widely known that Netanyahu himself is not opposed to annexation and has expressed views that the territory "belongs to us" and that there will not be a Palestinian country.

The primary reason for Israel's inability to make annexation official policy, despite the "facts on the ground" (increasing illegal settlements, rampant settler violence, and displacement of Palestinians), is US opposition.

Analysis of the Political Maneuvering

Shalom Lipner, who served in the Israeli Prime Minister's office, characterized the Knesset action as a "fairly accurate reading" of hardliners trying to cause trouble. He noted that the preliminary vote had little legal effect and was more an outgrowth of problems within Netanyahu's "unruly" coalition. The move embarrassed both the US Vice President and Prime Minister Netanyahu.

Lipner suggested a "diminished American patience for Israeli political theater" and a potential "growing leadership vacuum in Israel." He argued that the vote was likely intended to embarrass the Prime Minister without expectation of the measure passing. Netanyahu had reportedly reached out to those involved, asking them not to pursue the bill.

The "riot act has been read" by the US, with President Trump's warning in Time magazine about withdrawing all support if annexation proceeded, as it would complicate his regional agenda. Lipner believes Netanyahu cannot afford to let the annexation advance substantively. However, his coalition partners, described as "hungry and adventurous and confrontational," are flexing their muscles and have their own "red lines," potentially threatening the continuation of Netanyahu's rule if their demands are not met.

Netanyahu's Coalition and US Influence

The question of whether Benjamin Netanyahu is losing control of his government was raised. Lipner suggested there is reason to assume so, partly due to a divided opposition. While elections are not statutorily due for another year, there is discussion about potentially moving them forward. Netanyahu is "beholden to the shrinking coalition" whose members are demanding promises be kept and are engaging in "brinkmanship."

However, Lipner emphasized that Netanyahu can only allow this situation to go so far because of the "bigger elephant in the room: the White House." The US President's willingness to follow through on his threats to withdraw American support limits Netanyahu's ability to appease his partners, potentially pushing towards an election.

US "Babysitting" and Diplomatic Pressure

The arrival of US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo in Israel shortly after Vice President Vance's departure led to Israeli media joking about senior White House officials "babysitting" the Israeli government. This increased US presence highlights the "rock and a hard place" situation Netanyahu faces between American pressure and his coalition partners' demands for annexation.

Lipner confirmed that the US is "very much hands-on" to ensure the effort to prevent annexation succeeds. He noted that while there are "many spoilers" and "realities on the ground" that complicate matters, the current US focus is crucial. He observed that during a meeting between Netanyahu and Pompeo, the Prime Minister emphasized a "circle of trust and partnership" with the US, while Pompeo was "all business," discussing obstacles and the work left to do, indicating a serious approach rather than a casual embrace.

Conclusion

The core takeaway is that while hardline elements within the Israeli Knesset have pushed for West Bank annexation through symbolic votes, strong opposition from the Trump administration, particularly President Trump's threat to withdraw all US support, has created a significant obstacle. Prime Minister Netanyahu is caught between his own ideological leanings towards annexation, the demands of his coalition partners, and the critical need for US backing. The US is actively engaged in diplomatic efforts to prevent annexation, highlighting the significant influence of American policy on Israeli actions in the West Bank. The situation underscores the complex interplay of domestic Israeli politics, regional dynamics, and international relations.