Trump: Ukraine can win back all of its territory and 'maybe even go further than that' | DW News

Key Concepts

• Shift in Donald Trump's stance on the Ukraine war
• Potential for Ukraine to regain lost territory
• NATO's role and expectations
• Russian strategy and Kremlin's reaction
• EU leaders' response and long-term strategy for Ukraine

Trump's Shift on Ukraine

• Main Point: Donald Trump signaled a major shift in his stance on the war in Ukraine, suggesting Ukraine could recover all lost territory with EU support.
• Specific Details:
  • Trump stated Ukraine would be able to "take back their country in its original form and who knows, maybe even go further than that."
  • He claimed Putin and Russia are in "big economic trouble" and this is the time for Ukraine to act.
  • These remarks followed a meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly.
  • This contrasts with Trump's earlier suggestion that Ukraine might need to cede land to Russia for a peace deal.
• Quote: "Ukraine would be able to take back their country in its original form and who knows, maybe even go further than that." - Donald Trump
• Analysis by Anthony King:
  • King describes Trump's shift as "absolutely extraordinary," moving from berating Zelenskyy to supporting the total reintegration of Ukraine.
  • He attributes the shift to the operational realities of the war, including Putin's lack of interest in negotiation and the intensification of strategic bombardments.
  • King believes Trump has realized there's no negotiating with Putin and the outcome will be determined by military facts on the ground.

Practicalities of Ukraine Regaining Territory

• Main Point: While Trump's support is welcome, there's no realistic chance of Ukraine militarily throwing Russia out of all of Ukraine.
• Specific Details:
  • King argues that to completely expel Russian forces, Ukraine's armed forces would need to be three times the size, completely re-equipped with modern technology, and retrained.
  • He calls it a "deeply regrettable military fact" that the illegal invasion is likely to be partially successful.
  • He finds the clause "go further than that" worrying in terms of international relations and discussions about ending the war.

Kremlin's Reaction

• Main Point: The Kremlin is downplaying Trump's comments and waiting to see what happens.
• Specific Details:
  • Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov complained that Trump's statements were made under the influence of Zelenskyy and were "definitely wrong."
  • Peskov rejected Trump's claim that Russia would be economically a paper tiger, stating Russia would be a "bear."
  • Peskov hinted that Russia has no intention of ending the war and claimed there are enough contract soldiers in reserve.
  • The Kremlin continues to emphasize the warm relations between Trump and Putin.
• Analysis by Yuri Rashetto:
  • Rashetto believes Trump's statements can't really change or affect anything, as he often relativizes them himself.

EU Leaders' Response

• Main Point: EU leaders are reacting with a mix of relief, surprise, and skepticism, viewing it as a potential alignment with European policy.
• Specific Details:
  • French President Macron believes Trump's post reflects Ukraine's ability to impose respect for its rights.
  • EU's top diplomat Kaya Kalis called Trump's statement "very strong" and something "we hadn't heard before."
  • The EU Commission sees the shift as a result of their efforts and a welcome development.
• EU's Long-Term Strategy:
  • Europeans are preparing for a longer-term solution and peace through strength.
  • There's a sense that Putin cannot be trusted, so Ukraine needs to be turned into a "steel porcupine" or "Israel" in the military sense.
  • The goal is for Ukraine to be strong enough to push back on Russian invasions, so Putin can be trusted to negotiate peace.

Synthesis/Conclusion

The video analyzes Donald Trump's apparent shift in policy regarding the war in Ukraine. While his support is welcomed, experts question the practicality of Ukraine fully reclaiming its territory militarily. The Kremlin downplays Trump's statements, while EU leaders view it with cautious optimism, aligning it with their long-term strategy of strengthening Ukraine to achieve a sustainable peace. The key takeaway is that while Trump's words offer a glimmer of hope, the reality on the ground remains complex and requires a multifaceted approach involving military strength, diplomatic efforts, and sustained international support.