Trump to pardon Honduran ex-president and alleged narco-leader Hernandez, jailed in the US |

Key Concepts

• US Intervention in Latin American Elections: Explicit US presidential involvement in backing specific candidates and influencing election outcomes.
• "Banana Republic" Tradition: Historical US influence and economic dominance in Latin American countries, often involving support for favored political factions.
• Pardons and Drug Trafficking Allegations: The controversial decision by a US President to pardon a former leader accused of drug trafficking, juxtaposed with anti-narcotics efforts.
• Economic and Policy Alliances: The prioritization of a country's role as a reliable economic and policy partner over concerns about drug trafficking.
• Out-migration and Aid: The complex relationship between foreign aid to Central American countries and the issue of migration to the United States.
• Geopolitical and Geoeconomic Shifts: The broader trends of countries diversifying trade partners, particularly towards China, and the US's response.
• Defense Partnerships: The historical reliance of Latin American countries on the US for military hardware, training, and guidance, and potential rebalancing towards China.

US Presidential Intervention in Honduras

Donald Trump has taken an unprecedentedly vocal stance in supporting political allies in Latin America, with Honduras serving as a recent case study. In the final days of Honduras's presidential campaign, Trump issued a high-profile endorsement of conservative candidate Nasri Asphora, warning of potential cuts to US aid and investment if his preferred candidate lost. Asphora was leading the vote alongside another right-wing candidate, significantly ahead of the ruling left-wing party's candidate.

Trump's involvement extended beyond an endorsement. Days before the election, he announced his intention to pardon former Honduran President Juan Orlando Hernandez, who was serving a 45-year sentence in the US for cocaine trafficking. US prosecutors had previously accused Hernandez of transforming Honduras into a "narco state." Trump explained his decision by stating that the people of Honduras believed Hernandez was "set up" and that it was a "Biden administration set up," a claim he agreed with after reviewing the facts.

Honduran Election Dynamics

Journalist Fritz Pino reported from Tegucigalpa, Honduras, that while Nasri Asphora's lead was not entirely surprising given Trump's endorsement, the closeness of the race was unexpected. Both candidates had declared victory, but they were separated by only 1% with approximately 45% of votes yet to be counted, indicating a neck-and-neck contest. Pino suggested that Trump's endorsement initially boosted Asphora's support, but the mention of Juan Orlando Hernandez and the planned pardon created a "bitter taste" of the previous National Party presidency, causing some voters to shift towards the centrist party. This dynamic led to an exchange between left and centrist voters influenced by Trump's posts and tweets, resulting in the close race.

The US has a long-standing connection with the National Party in Honduras, including its support for Juan Orlando Hernandez's second term, which was won in an election widely considered fraudulent. This historical backing and acceptance of the election outcome by the US are seen as factors in the continued US relationship with the party, as they tend to align with US policy recommendations.

Contradictory US Policies

The decision to pardon a former Honduran president convicted of drug trafficking, while simultaneously deploying naval assets off Venezuela's coast to combat "narco terrorists," was highlighted as a perplexing contradiction. Pino explained that this demonstrates Trump's primary interest in regional policy and economic alignment rather than genuine regional dynamics or drug trafficking concerns. Juan Orlando Hernandez was a close ally who implemented special economic zones that bypassed the constitution to favor US investment, including from investors who had backed Trump's election. Therefore, the focus shifted from drug trafficking allegations to Hernandez's reliability as an economic and policy ally for the US.

Historical Context and Future Implications

Will Freeman, a fellow for Latin American studies at the Council on Foreign Relations, noted that explicit US presidential intervention in Latin American elections is unusual in recent times, harkening back to an older tradition exemplified by the "banana republic" era where US companies influenced politics.

Aid and Migration

Regarding Trump's threats to cut aid if Asphora lost, Freeman suggested that aid cuts in Northern Central America have been more cautious due to significant out-migration to the US. The administration recognizes the need for stability to prevent border crises. Given that either a center-right or right-wing candidate was expected to win, Freeman doubted Trump would follow through with aid cuts, anticipating more continuity in the US-Honduran relationship regardless of the winner.

Regional Realignment and Diversification

Freeman anticipated more attempts by the Trump administration to meddle in upcoming elections in the region, such as in Colombia and Brazil, with the hope of shifting them to the right. However, he was skeptical about a lasting right-wing turn, citing the region's historical tendency to swing between left and right political ideologies every few years. He believed that attempts by the White House to reinforce a right-wing shift might backfire and would need to be assessed on a case-by-case basis.

High-Level Impunity and Venezuela

Freeman viewed the planned pardon of Juan Orlando Hernandez as consistent with Trump's record of claiming to fight organized crime while making decisions that seemed to undermine that mission. He pointed to Trump's close working relationship with the Hernandez government, despite widespread knowledge of corruption and narco ties, because they cooperated on migration. He also cited instances of the Trump administration returning individuals accused of drug trafficking or political corruption to allied governments. Freeman characterized this as "theatrical optics" attacking lower-level figures while ignoring high-level impunity.

Regarding the standoff with Venezuela's Nicolás Maduro, Freeman did not foresee significant action based on the Honduras situation, viewing them as separate policy components. He described the administration's strategy of cyber rattling and military buildup to pressure Venezuelan generals to flip on Maduro as unsuccessful due to perceived unity within Venezuelan ranks. The administration faces a difficult choice between escalating with potentially dangerous scenarios like assassination attempts or admitting failure.

Shifting Trade Partnerships

Freeman analyzed the hemisphere in parts. South America, he argued, has already shifted towards China's orbit over the past 20 years, with China being the largest trade partner for most major economies, a trend that continued under subsequent US administrations. This shift is driven by economic realities, such as China's demand for commodities like soy and minerals, which the US does not prioritize.

In contrast, Mexico and Central America have seen an increased US trade advantage over China, leading to greater economic integration with the US. This economic dependence explains why Mexico has not pushed back against Trump administration policies. Canada might experiment with diversification at the margins, but North and Central America are largely tied to the US economy.

Freeman was skeptical that the US's aggressive stance would push the hemisphere into Beijing's orbit, as the economic forces driving trade diversification are more significant than the tone of US leadership.

Defense Partnerships and Rebalancing

While economic ties are shifting, Freeman noted that the US has historically been the preferred defense partner for many Latin American countries, including those trading more with China. These countries have relied on the US for military hardware, training, and guidance on sensitive information technology. However, he observed a rebalancing in Colombia and Brazil, with a willingness to engage with China on defense issues, a move previously avoided even by leftist presidents who prioritized strong US defense relationships.