Trump set to welcome Saudi's MBS with business deals in first US visit since Khashoggi killing

Key Concepts

• Muhammad bin Salman (MBS): Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia.
• Jamal Khashoggi Murder: 2018 assassination linked to MBS, causing international outcry.
• US-Saudi Relations Shift: Transition from pariah status to partnership due to mutual interests.
• Economic Ties: Saudi Arabia's promised $600 billion investment in the US.
• Security Cooperation: Potential sale of F-35 jets to Saudi Arabia.
• Abraham Accords: US-brokered normalization agreements between Israel and several Arab nations.
• Saudi-Israel Normalization: Saudi Arabia's condition for normalization is the recognition of a Palestinian state.
• US-Saudi Defense Agreement: MBS's ambition for a defense pact similar to Qatar's.
• Regional Instability: Context for MBS's diplomatic efforts, including Israeli airstrikes in the region.

MBS's Return to the US and Shifting Alliances

Seven years after his last visit, Saudi Crown Prince Muhammad bin Salman (MBS) is set to make his first trip back to the United States. This visit signifies a significant shift in his international standing, moving from a figure associated with controversy to a potential partner and peacemaker. In 2018, MBS was linked to the murder of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi, an event that generated global condemnation. However, he has since regained favor due to converging mutual interests, particularly in economic and security cooperation.

Economic and Security Cooperation

A key driver of this renewed partnership is the economic dimension. Saudi Arabia has pledged a substantial investment of $600 billion in the US. This economic commitment is coupled with significant security cooperation. Former President Donald Trump announced his intention to sell F-35 fighter jets to Saudi Arabia, a move he described as a benefit of their alliance, stating, "They've got to like us very much." Trump also highlighted the perceived success of his administration in addressing the "Iran situation," claiming they "obliterated their nuclear capability."

Implications of F-35 Jet Sale

The potential sale of F-35 jets to Saudi Arabia represents a significant policy shift that could alter the military balance in the Middle East. Currently, Israel is the sole country in the region possessing these advanced aircraft.

US Push for Saudi-Israel Normalization

President Trump is keen on Saudi Arabia recognizing the state of Israel by joining the Abraham Accords. However, analysts suggest that this is not a non-negotiable "red line" for Trump. The Trump administration is characterized as being "much more transactional with respect to Saudi Arabia." While some of Trump's supporters strongly prioritize normalization with Israel, the President himself appears open to pursuing various side deals without making this the central focus of his negotiations.

Saudi Stance on Israel Normalization

For Saudi Arabia, the normalization of relations with Israel is contingent upon the recognition of a Palestinian state. This remains a firm condition for MBS.

MBS's Pursuit of a Defense Agreement

Amidst the current regional instability, MBS is reportedly aiming to secure a defense agreement with the US, similar to the one previously granted to Gulf neighbor Qatar. This ambition follows an Israeli airstrike targeting Hamas that impacted Doha, the capital of Qatar, in September, underscoring the volatile security landscape.

Conclusion

MBS's return to the US marks a strategic recalibration of Saudi Arabia's foreign policy, driven by economic incentives and security imperatives. The potential F-35 sale and the ongoing discussions around regional normalization highlight the complex geopolitical dynamics at play, with the Palestinian issue remaining a critical sticking point for Saudi Arabia. MBS's pursuit of a defense pact reflects a desire for enhanced security guarantees in an increasingly unstable region.