Trump says he will approve sale of F-35 fighter jets to Saudi Arabia

Key Concepts

• Abka and Kur's oil facilities attack (2019): A significant security shock for Saudi Arabia, involving drone and missile strikes that halved oil production.
• Iranian-made systems: Suspected origin of the weapons used in the 2019 attacks, pointing to potential Iranian involvement.
• F-35 fighter jet: An advanced US-made aircraft with stealth technology, integrated sensors, and long-range precision weapons, sought by Saudi Arabia.
• Qualitative Military Edge (QME): A US policy commitment to Israel, ensuring its military superiority in the Middle East.
• Qatar's defense relationship with Washington: A model for Saudi Arabia's desired security arrangement, including an agreement treating threats against Qatar as threats to US interests.
• Vision 2030: Saudi Arabia's modernization plan, which includes deepening its military partnership with the US.
• Executive Order: The mechanism by which the US President can provide security guarantees, which are less binding than a treaty approved by Congress.

Saudi Arabia's Push for US Defense Guarantees

The impetus for Saudi Arabia's pursuit of enhanced US defense guarantees stemmed from a critical security incident in 2019. Coordinated drone and missile attacks targeted the Abka and Kur's oil facilities, leading to a temporary halving of the Kingdom's oil production. While Yemen's Houthi movement claimed responsibility, Saudi Arabia, the US, and European governments indicated that the attack's characteristics were consistent with Iranian-made systems, suggesting potential Iranian planning or execution. This event underscored the severity of the missile and drone threat facing Saudi Arabia and raised concerns about the extent of US intervention and retaliation on its behalf.

Request for F-35 Fighter Jets

Following the 2019 attacks, Saudi Arabia's request for the US-made F-35 fighter jet, recognized as one of the world's most advanced aircraft, appears to have gained traction. The F-35 is characterized by its stealth technology, integrated sensors, and long-range precision weaponry, making it a cornerstone of US air power. Historically, Israel has been the sole Middle Eastern nation authorized to operate this jet, a provision tied to Washington's commitment to maintaining Israel's "qualitative military edge" (QME). The F-35 is described as "the apex predator right now in... air defense and in air offense," possessing "tremendous new technologies that are not seen anywhere else in the world." The US is reportedly sensitive about disseminating this technology due to the risk of it being copied by rivals like Russia and China.

Seeking Clearer US Security Commitments

Beyond advanced weaponry, Saudi Arabia is actively seeking more explicit US security commitments. The Kingdom has observed Qatar's deepening defense ties with Washington, which include an agreement that designates threats against Qatar as threats to US interests. Riyadh desires a comparable arrangement, particularly concerning regional missile and drone threats. Washington has indicated openness to strengthening cooperation in areas such as radar integration, missile and drone defense, intelligence sharing, and joint training, provided these measures do not disrupt the region's military equilibrium.

Political Sensitivities and Policy Shifts

However, the provision of F-35s or more robust defense guarantees would represent a significant departure from established US policy and remains a politically sensitive issue in Washington. The security assurances that Washington is prepared to offer Saudi Arabia are expected to mirror those extended to Qatar. This typically involves an executive order from the President. It is crucial to note that these are not as definitive as treaty-level guarantees ratified by Congress, and an executive order can be rescinded by a subsequent administration.

Saudi Arabia's Modernization and US Strategic Balance

As Saudi Arabia progresses with its military modernization under the framework of Vision 2030, it views a strengthened partnership with the United States as indispensable. Nevertheless, the US must carefully balance these Saudi requests against its broader strategic obligations and commitments throughout the Middle East.

Conclusion

The transcript highlights Saudi Arabia's strategic imperative to bolster its defense capabilities and secure explicit US security assurances, driven by regional threats and past security vulnerabilities. The potential acquisition of F-35s and the pursuit of a Qatar-like defense agreement signify a desire for a more robust alliance. However, these advancements are subject to significant political considerations in Washington, particularly concerning the preservation of Israel's military advantage and the nature of US security commitments, which are likely to be enacted via executive orders rather than congressional treaties. The US faces the challenge of supporting its ally while maintaining regional stability and its own strategic interests.