Trump's Venezuela gambit tests rules-based global orderーNHK WORLD-JAPAN NEWS

Venezuela’s Political Shift and US Intervention

Key Concepts: Interim President Deli Rodriguez, Nicholas Maduro, US Military Operation, International Law, Sovereignty, Monroe Doctrine, Trump Doctrine, America First Policy, Venezuelan Oil Industry, Rules-Based International Order.

I. Maduro’s Capture and Rodriguez’s Ascension

Nicholas Maduro, the former President of Venezuela, has been taken into custody by US forces in New York, facing unspecified charges. This followed a US military operation conducted two days prior to his appearance in federal court, where he pleaded not guilty and maintained his claim to the presidency. His wife is also reportedly in US custody. Deli Rodriguez, formerly Maduro’s Vice President, has been sworn in as Venezuela’s interim president, vowing to restore stability and peace to the nation. The ceremony was attended by Maduro’s son, a member of the National Assembly, and foreign diplomats, signaling an attempt at unity. Rodriguez expressed distress regarding Maduro and his wife’s situation, stating, “It pains her to think of Maduro and his wife who are currently in custody in New York.”

II. Venezuelan Government Response & State of Emergency

In response to Maduro’s capture, the Venezuelan government has declared a state of emergency. This decree authorizes police to search for and arrest individuals suspected of supporting the US military operation. This indicates a crackdown on potential opposition and a consolidation of power by the interim government.

III. International Law and the Legality of US Action

The legality of Maduro’s capture is a central point of contention. NHK World’s Ishi Yusaku highlighted a distinction between criticisms of Maduro’s governance and the US action itself. Maduro has been accused of authoritarian rule, manipulating the 2024 presidential election, and involvement in drug trafficking. However, the US intervention – deploying forces into a sovereign nation to detain its leader – raises significant questions under international law.

The US Ambassador to the UN justified the action by claiming Maduro was an “illegitimate so-called president,” emphasizing the celebration among Venezuelan expatriates. However, this justification was met with criticism. UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres expressed “deep concern that rules of international law have not been respected” regarding the January 3rd military action, citing the UN Charter’s prohibition of force against a state’s territorial integrity or political independence. Condemnation also came from China, Russia, and even allies of the US like France. This widespread concern suggests a perceived dangerous precedent being set.

IV. The “Trump Doctrine” and the Revival of the Monroe Doctrine

The US action is being viewed through the lens of President Donald Trump’s “America First” policy and a reinterpretation of the Monroe Doctrine. The Trump administration’s national security strategy, released last month, repeatedly emphasizes the “Western Hemisphere.” The Monroe Doctrine, originally proclaimed by President James Monroe over 200 years ago, asserted non-interference from European powers in the Americas, defining the region as the US sphere of influence.

Trump has invoked this doctrine, rebranding it as the “Donro Document,” asserting “American dominance in the Western Hemisphere will never be questioned again.” This signifies a more assertive US foreign policy, potentially justifying the use of force to maintain influence within its perceived sphere. Trump has also demonstrated a willingness to take a hard line with Colombia and Cuba, and even suggested potential US acquisition of Greenland and the Panama Canal. He appears to be signaling that governments within his sphere of influence must align with US interests or face consequences, a message directed towards powers like China and Russia.

V. Implications for Venezuela and the Global Order

The future of Venezuela remains uncertain. While Trump has stated the US will “run the country,” he has shown limited interest in promoting Venezuelan democracy, dismissing Nobel Peace Prize laureate Maria Corina Machado as lacking sufficient support. Venezuela is currently governed by interim President Rodriguez, and the revitalization of Venezuela’s oil industry – a stated Trump ambition – will likely be a key factor in the country’s economic future.

Beyond Venezuela, this intervention could potentially undermine the US-led, rules-based international order established after World War II. The year 2024, marking the 250th anniversary of the US Declaration of Independence and featuring upcoming US midterm elections, is predicted to be a period of significant geopolitical shifts and potential surprises.

Technical Terms:

• Sovereignty: The supreme power or authority of a state to govern itself without external interference.
• Authoritarian: Relating to a form of government characterized by strong central power and limited political freedoms.
• Sphere of Influence: A geographical area in which one state has considerable economic, political, or cultural influence.
• Rules-Based International Order: A system of international relations based on established norms, laws, and institutions.
• Monroe Doctrine: A US foreign policy principle opposing European colonialism in the Americas.