Trump's 15% Tariffs Will Make Millionaires in 2026 (Here's How)

Trump Tariffs, the Supreme Court, and the Future of AI & Semiconductor Investing

Key Concepts:

• International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA): A US law allowing the President to regulate international commerce during a national emergency.
• Section 232 Tariffs: National security tariffs imposed by the US on specific goods, like semiconductors, under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962.
• Section 122 of the 1974 Trade Act: Allows the President to impose tariffs up to 15% without congressional approval for a limited period.
• Reciprocal Tariffs: Tariffs imposed in response to tariffs imposed by other countries.
• AI Accelerators: Specialized chips designed to speed up AI computations (e.g., Nvidia H200, AMD MI325X).
• High Bandwidth Memory (HBM): A type of memory crucial for AI applications, currently in short supply.
• Foundries: Semiconductor manufacturing facilities (e.g., TSMC, Intel).
• Export Controls: Government restrictions on the export of certain goods, often for national security reasons.

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I. The Supreme Court Ruling & Its Limited Scope

The Supreme Court recently ruled against President Trump’s use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to impose broad, reciprocal tariffs on numerous countries. These tariffs, enacted approximately a year ago, were triggered by perceived unfair foreign trade practices and led to a significant stock market decline – a 20% drop in both the S&P 500 and NASDAQ within weeks. Trump had initially imposed a 10% tariff on all countries, with higher tariffs levied on those with large trade deficits with the US. The Court determined that IEEPA allows presidential regulation of imports during genuine national emergencies, but does not grant the power to fundamentally redesign the entire tariff system or implement a permanent global tariff program unilaterally.

This ruling effectively unwinds most of the reciprocal tariffs impacting over 100 countries, leaving importers and lawyers navigating the redistribution of over $130 billion in previously collected tariffs. However, crucially, the decision did not overturn Trump’s separate national security tariffs imposed under Section 232. These include the 25% tariffs and compliance rules on specific semiconductor equipment and AI chips implemented in January.

II. Trump’s Response & the Shift to AI/Semiconductor Focus

Rather than accepting the Supreme Court’s decision as a setback, President Trump is treating it as a temporary obstacle. Within hours of the ruling, he announced a new 10% global tariff (later raised to the maximum 15% allowed) utilizing Section 122 of the 1974 Trade Act. He also affirmed that Section 232 national security tariffs would remain in full effect. This demonstrates a continued commitment to trade protectionism, albeit through different legal avenues.

The administration is simultaneously intensifying its focus on advanced chips and AI hardware. Specifically, a 25% tariff has been imposed on advanced AI accelerators like Nvidia’s H200 and AMD’s MI325X, coupled with export controls designed to limit sales to China. These actions are independent of IEEPA and unaffected by the Supreme Court ruling. Furthermore, a deal with Taiwan links future tariffs to Taiwanese companies’ investments in US manufacturing, incentivizing domestic production. Chipmakers building fabs in the US can import up to 2.5x their planned US capacity tariff-free during construction and 1.5x once operational. The speaker suggests this policy might encourage chipmakers to overpromise on capacity to maximize tariff benefits.

III. Companies at Risk

The policy shift creates clear winners and losers. Companies facing increased risk include:

• US-listed semiconductor companies with significant China exposure: Qualcomm (QCOM), Marvell (MRVL), Western Digital (WDC), and SanDisk (SNDK) are vulnerable, with 25-40% of their revenue potentially tied to Chinese OEMs or supply chains. These companies are susceptible to retaliatory tariffs, customer reshoring within China, and competition from Chinese vendors.
• Low-margin commodity hardware businesses: Companies like Quanta and Foxconn, which manufacture products for Apple, Microsoft, and Amazon on thin margins (2-4%), are losing the broad tariff protections they previously enjoyed. Their reliance on China for manufacturing and cost competitiveness makes them particularly vulnerable.

IV. Companies Poised to Benefit

The following companies are expected to benefit from the new trade landscape:

• AI Accelerator & Custom Chip Manufacturers: Nvidia and AMD are central beneficiaries, as the Section 232 tariffs specifically target chips like the H200 and MI325X. Export controls further limit competition from China, bolstering demand and pricing power.
• High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) & Advanced Packaging Ecosystem: HBM is in short supply, and policies are driving more capacity to the US and allied nations. Micron (US), SK Hynix, and Samsung (South Korea) are well-positioned to capitalize on this trend.
• Semiconductor Foundries & Equipment Makers: TSMC and Intel are incentivized to expand US production through subsidies and favorable tariff rules. Equipment vendors like ASML, Applied Materials, Lam Research, and KLA will benefit from the buildout of new advanced manufacturing lines.

V. Portfolio Strategy & Market Insights

The speaker advocates for a strategy of “dollar-cost averaging” into AI and semiconductor stocks during market downturns triggered by tariff-related news. They emphasize the importance of focusing on data and policy changes rather than reacting to headlines. Key indicators to watch include CNN’s Fear & Greed Index and the S&P 500’s Volatility Index (VIX). Spikes in volatility and fear signal opportunities to increase investment, while low volatility and high greed suggest caution.

A recent study highlighted that US workers utilizing AI daily earn 40% more than those who don’t, underscoring the growing importance of AI proficiency. This led to a promotion of Outskll, an AI-focused education platform offering training to enhance AI skills.

VI. Conclusion

The Supreme Court ruling represents a shift, not an end, to Trump’s trade policies. The focus is now squarely on protecting and bolstering the US AI and semiconductor industries through targeted tariffs, export controls, and incentives for domestic manufacturing. Investors should prioritize companies within the AI stack – from chip designers to memory manufacturers and equipment suppliers – while carefully assessing the risks facing companies reliant on China or low-margin commodity hardware. The key takeaway is to view tariff headlines as potential buying opportunities and to base investment decisions on data and policy analysis rather than emotional reactions. As stated by the speaker, “the best investment you can make is in you,” emphasizing the importance of staying informed and developing relevant skills in this rapidly evolving landscape.