Trump ramps up pressure on Latin America as US seeks Iran peace deal | Inside Latin America

Key Concepts

• "Donro" Doctrine: A modern, aggressive iteration of the 1823 Monroe Doctrine, characterized by direct US interventionism and the assertion that Latin America is a sphere of exclusive US influence.
• Sovereignty vs. Intervention: The central tension between Latin American nations attempting to maintain autonomy and the US policy of using military and economic pressure to achieve regional objectives.
• Weaponized Trade: The use of economic leverage—specifically the US-Mexico-Canada trade relationship—to force political and security concessions.
• Cartel Designation: The classification of Mexican drug cartels as "terrorist organizations," providing a legal framework for potential US military action on foreign soil.
• Economic Interdependence: The critical role of Mexico in the US supply chain, particularly regarding hardware necessary for AI development.

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1. The "Donro" Doctrine and US Strategy

The Trump administration has shifted its Latin American policy from indirect influence to direct, assertive intervention. Former ambassador Diego Gillar notes that while the original Monroe Doctrine aimed to keep foreign powers out, the current "Donro" doctrine asserts that Latin American nations "belong" to the US. The primary strategic goals are:

• Geopolitical Containment: Preventing China and Russia from gaining a foothold in the Western Hemisphere.
• Resource Extraction: Securing access to oil, gas, agriculture, and mining assets.
• Security/Migration: Implementing a hardline agenda on border control and drug trafficking.

2. Case Study: Mexico and the Sinaloa Flashpoint

Mexico is currently the epicenter of this new, aggressive policy. The relationship is defined by a high-stakes balancing act by President Claudia Sheinbaum.

• Military Pressure: The US has designated the Sinaloa cartel as a terrorist organization, creating a "looming shadow" of potential US military intervention.
• Judicial Intervention: In a historic move, the US indicted high-ranking Mexican officials, including Sinaloa Governor Rubén Rocha, for drug trafficking and weapons possession. This led to the rapid collapse of the Sinaloa state leadership.
• Economic Leverage: Mexico is heavily dependent on the US, with 80% of its exports going north and 40% of its foreign direct investment coming from the US. Alex Gonzalez (Mexico Political Economist) argues that the US economy relies on Mexico for the hardware essential to its AI-driven growth, making the relationship vital for both nations.

3. Legal and Ethical Concerns

Luis Moreno Ocampo, former prosecutor of the International Criminal Court, criticizes the US approach to the "War on Drugs." He argues that the Trump administration is:

• Transforming justice operations into "killing operations."
• Misapplying the "war frame" to criminal activity, which he suggests constitutes a systematic attack on civilian populations rather than a legitimate military conflict.

4. Regional Alignments and Consequences

• Argentina: The relationship between Donald Trump and Javier Milei is highlighted as a key political alignment. The region is increasingly bifurcated: those who align with the US receive benefits, while those who resist face isolation and pressure.
• Venezuela: The capture of Nicolás Maduro is cited as a "tactical success" for the US, but experts warn of negative strategic implications. The US appears more interested in tethering Venezuela’s economy to its own than in fostering genuine democratic change, leaving the local opposition feeling abandoned.
• Cuba: The US continues to tighten its grip through energy restrictions and diplomatic threats.

5. Notable Quotes

• Diego Gillar: "The Monroe Doctrine of 1823... was an indirect approach... now the message is: to us, you belong to us."
• Luis Moreno Ocampo: "Trump is transforming a justice operation into a killing operation... This is not a war. They are not conducting hostilities against the US."
• Claudia Sheinbaum: "The people of Mexico must be certain of one thing. Their president does not bow her head. Your president will defend our sovereignty above all else."

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Synthesis and Conclusion

The current US policy toward Latin America represents a significant departure from traditional diplomacy, favoring a "might-makes-right" approach that prioritizes US economic and security interests over regional sovereignty. While this strategy has achieved tactical successes—such as the removal of Maduro and the disruption of Mexican state-level leadership—it has created deep instability. The reliance on military threats and economic coercion risks long-term diplomatic alienation, even as the US remains inextricably linked to the region through critical supply chains and economic interdependence. The human cost, particularly in areas like Sinaloa, remains high, as local populations are caught between the violence of cartels and the aggressive interventionism of the United States.