Trump, Maduro, and the war games that predicted chaos | The Global Story Podcast

Key Concepts

• War Gaming: A simulation process used by governments to analyze potential outcomes of different scenarios, involving role-playing and assessment of economic, military, and social factors.
• Cartel de los Soles (Cartel of the Suns): A Venezuelan criminal network allegedly led by President Maduro, designated as a terrorist organization by the US.
• FARC (Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia): A Colombian guerrilla group that signed a peace agreement in 2016, previously financed by the Maduro regime.
• Red Team/Blue Team: In war gaming, the "Red Team" represents opposing forces (e.g., the Venezuelan military), while the "Blue Team" represents the US.
• Contingency Planning: Developing plans for various potential future events, particularly in the realm of national security.
• Sanctions: Economic penalties applied to a country or individuals, often used as a tool of foreign policy.

Venezuela: Foreseen Chaos – A Detailed Analysis of US War Games & Recent Events

I. Introduction to War Gaming & its Application to Venezuela

The interview with Douglas Farah, a former Washington Post journalist and war game planner, details the extensive contingency planning undertaken by US administrations regarding Venezuela. War gaming, as Farah explains, is a process of simulating potential scenarios – such as regime change, popular insurrection, or continued stability – to anticipate consequences. These exercises involve experts analyzing economic data, military capabilities, and social dynamics, assigning participants to “Red” (opposing forces) and “Blue” (US) teams to role-play and assess outcomes. The purpose is not prediction, but rather to identify potential pitfalls and prepare for a range of possibilities. Venezuela became a focal point due to growing concerns about the Maduro regime’s ties to terrorist organizations, increasing regional instability, and the regime’s internal vulnerabilities.

II. Escalating Concerns: From Obama to Trump Administrations

Contingency planning for Venezuela began during the Obama administration, intensifying with the rise of the Cartel de los Soles – a network the US government now designates as a terrorist organization. The emergence of the FARC guerrillas in Colombia, receiving support from the Maduro regime, and increasing involvement from Iran and Russia further heightened concerns. The Obama administration focused on the economic crisis within Venezuela, specifically the hyperinflation (reaching several thousand percent annually) and its potential to destabilize the country. The initial assessment, however, was that the regime would likely survive, leading to a massive migration crisis – a scenario underestimated in its scale, ultimately resulting in 8 million Venezuelans leaving the country.

During the Trump administration, the focus shifted towards a “day after” plan, considering scenarios involving Maduro’s removal, potentially through an internal coup. War games explored the power dynamics that would emerge, the potential for a fractured military, and the role of external actors like Russia and Iran in bolstering the regime. A key variable examined was the price of oil, recognizing its impact on the regime’s resources and ability to maintain control. In 2019, with the emergence of Juan Guaidó as a self-declared interim president and support from several Latin American countries, the possibility of regime change seemed more plausible, but war games consistently predicted the regime’s resilience.

III. The Red Team’s Success: Predicting Regime Survival

Farah consistently played on the “Red Team,” tasked with representing the forces defending the Maduro regime. His expertise in Latin American guerrilla groups informed his assessment that the regime possessed a deeply entrenched repressive apparatus and a capacity to maintain control even in the face of opposition. The Red Team’s assessment proved accurate: despite external pressure and internal fissures, the Maduro regime remained in power. The team predicted that even with a successor to Maduro, maintaining control over the entire country would be extremely difficult, potentially leading to a situation similar to Syria, where the central government controls only the capital city. A key factor in the regime’s survival was the ability of figures like Maduro to maintain a fragile balance of power among competing interests within the government, acting as a “traffic cop” rather than a strong ideological leader.

IV. Biden Administration & Focus on Criminal Networks

Under the Biden administration, the focus shifted away from regime change and towards analyzing the intersection of criminal organizations and the Maduro regime. The administration viewed Venezuela as a less significant threat compared to other global challenges. Analysis centered on identifying financial flows used by the regime and exploring potential sanctions targeting the elite, rather than the general population. Farah highlights the existence of viable sanctions that were never implemented, focusing on disrupting the financial networks used to move billions of dollars through shell companies and offshore accounts. He cites a specific example of $3.3 billion moved through El Salvador, involving the state oil company and elements of the FARC.

V. The Unforeseen: The Capture Operation & its Potential Consequences

The recent operation to capture Maduro, described as a “special operation” and not previously war-gamed, took Farah and many others by surprise. He emphasizes that such an action – kidnapping a sitting head of state in the Western Hemisphere – was considered unrealistic. Farah expresses concern that the operation lacks a comprehensive plan to address the immediate humanitarian needs of the Venezuelan population, including food, medicine, and gasoline. He warns that without addressing these basic needs, the operation risks losing legitimacy and fueling resentment, with Venezuelans potentially longing for the relative stability of the Maduro era. He reiterates a consistent finding from the war games: any intervention requires massive investment in humanitarian aid and economic reconstruction to be successful.

VI. Consistent Findings: A Pattern of Foreseen Disaster

Throughout the various war game scenarios, a consistent theme emerged: none of the potential outcomes appeared favorable. Even scenarios involving inaction and maintaining the status quo were predicted to result in continued hardship and instability. Farah concludes that the US has consistently lacked the political will and resources to effectively address the complex challenges in Venezuela, and that the recent operation, without a robust follow-up plan, is likely to exacerbate the existing crisis. He stresses that the situation is not primarily ideological, but a matter of basic survival for the Venezuelan people.

Notable Quote:

“We didn't have any scenarios or we thought ah this is what you know this would play out well here this and we would get to where we want to go because everything requires not only a political alignment and sort of the ability to get to execute multiple things simultaneously but an enormous amount of resources to come in behind.” – Douglas Farah.

Technical Terms Explained:

• Hyperinflation: Extremely rapid and out-of-control inflation, eroding the real value of the local currency.
• Shell Companies: Companies created to conceal the identity of the owners and the source of funds.
• Extra-Regional Groups: Groups originating from outside the region (e.g., Iran, Russia) that exert influence within the region.
• Contraband: Illegally imported or exported goods.

Logical Connections:

The interview follows a chronological progression, starting with the initial concerns during the Obama administration, moving through the more interventionist approach of the Trump administration, and concluding with the Biden administration’s focus on criminal networks. This structure highlights the evolving US policy towards Venezuela and the consistent thread of war gaming as a tool for assessing potential outcomes. The discussion seamlessly connects the theoretical exercises of war gaming to the real-world events of the recent capture operation, emphasizing the limitations of planning without adequate resources and a comprehensive follow-up strategy.

Conclusion:

The interview with Douglas Farah provides a sobering assessment of US policy towards Venezuela. The consistent findings from years of war gaming – predicting chaos and instability regardless of the chosen course of action – underscore the immense complexity of the situation. The recent capture operation, while unexpected, appears to reinforce the war game predictions, highlighting the critical need for a robust humanitarian and economic plan to prevent further deterioration and ensure a sustainable future for Venezuela. The lack of such a plan, as Farah emphasizes, risks turning a potentially transformative event into another chapter of disaster for the Venezuelan people.