Trump instructs Pentagon to resume testing US nuclear weapons | DW News

Key Concepts

• Nuclear Weapons Testing: The act of detonating nuclear devices to assess their capabilities and effects.
• Subcritical Test: A nuclear test that does not result in a nuclear explosion or yield.
• Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT): An international treaty that prohibits all nuclear explosions, whether for military or civilian purposes. It has been signed by many countries but has not entered into force.
• New START Treaty: A bilateral arms control treaty between the United States and Russia that limits the number of deployed strategic nuclear warheads and bombs. It is set to expire in February.
• Arms Control: The regulation or limitation of weapons, particularly weapons of mass destruction.
• Deterrence: The use of threat of retaliation to prevent an adversary from taking a certain action.
• Leverage: The ability to influence or control someone or something.

Donald Trump's Announcement on Nuclear Testing

Donald Trump has announced that the United States will resume its nuclear weapons testing program after a hiatus of over 30 years. He stated that this decision is a response to the testing programs of China and Russia, aiming to maintain parity. In an online statement, Trump declared, "Because of other count's testing programs, I have instructed the Department of War to start testing our nuclear weapons on an equal basis. That process will begin immediately." He further elaborated on Air Force One, suggesting that since other nations are testing, it is appropriate for the US to do so, despite possessing a large nuclear arsenal and having halted testing years ago.

Expert Analysis: Technological vs. Political Motivation

William Elberg, a senior fellow at the Pacific Forum and former director of NATO's arms control, disarmament, and non-proliferation center, offers a critical perspective on Trump's announcement. Elberg argues that from a technological standpoint, the US would gain little from resuming nuclear testing. He points out that the US conducted hundreds of tests during the Cold War, accumulating extensive data. Furthermore, advancements in supercomputing allow for significant data acquisition without physical testing. Therefore, Elberg characterizes Trump's statement as a "political gesture rather than a technological gesture."

Understanding Subcritical Tests and the CTBT

The discussion clarifies the distinction between full-scale nuclear explosions and subcritical tests. A nuclear explosion is defined by criticality, involving the fission of uranium or plutonium, resulting in a nuclear yield. In contrast, a subcritical test is conducted without achieving criticality, meaning there is no nuclear yield or explosion. Under the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT), countries are permitted to conduct technological work and testing as long as it does not result in a nuclear explosion. The United States, China, Russia, the UK, and France have been conducting subcritical tests since the CTBT was signed by these nations. However, it is crucial to note that the CTBT has not yet entered into force. While most countries abide by its principles, India, Pakistan, and North Korea, who are not signatories, have conducted nuclear tests.

The Apparent Contradiction: Denuclearization and Testing

Trump's announcement also included a desire for denuclearization, which appears contradictory to resuming testing. Elberg suggests that Trump's strategy is to mirror the perceived actions of other countries. US intelligence agencies have reportedly believed that Russia and China may have conducted tests exceeding subcritical levels, possibly involving small-yield explosions concealed at their facilities. Trump's intention, according to this interpretation, is to match these capabilities to gain leverage in arms control negotiations. He believes that entering negotiations without comparable strength would be disadvantageous.

The Risk of Miscalculation and the Need for Dialogue

The potential response from Russia and China to this development is uncertain, with possibilities ranging from further testing to increased negotiations. Elberg highlights a concerning parallel with President Putin's statement on October 2nd, suggesting that someone was preparing for nuclear tests. This situation could represent a "classic trap" where both sides act based on assumptions about the other's activities, leading to an escalation driven by misperceptions. Elberg emphasizes the critical need for direct and honest conversations about nuclear testing and the future of nuclear weapons, suggesting that President Xi Jinping's participation in such talks would be beneficial.

The Erosion of Arms Control Treaties

This development occurs as President Trump is scheduled to meet with President Xi Jinping. The conversation also touches upon the legacy of Cold War treaties designed to prevent nuclear proliferation. Elberg confirms that the New START treaty, the sole remaining arms control treaty between the US and Russia, is set to expire in February. There is no provision for its automatic extension, requiring mutual agreement. President Putin has proposed a one-year extension, but without bilateral discussions, this would mark the first time since 1972 that there are no limits on the nuclear arsenals of the US and Russia. This prospect is described as a "sobering thought."