‘Trump has no magic wand’: ASEAN itself must carry regional peace efforts forward, says analyst

Key Concepts

• ASEAN Summit: A meeting of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations leaders.
• US-China Rivalry: The geopolitical and economic competition between the United States and China.
• Thailand-Cambodia Peace Deal: An agreement aimed at resolving border disputes between Thailand and Cambodia.
• Myanmar Crisis: The ongoing political and humanitarian situation in Myanmar.
• South China Sea Code of Conduct: Negotiations between ASEAN and China to establish rules for behavior in the South China Sea.
• Intra-ASEAN Trade: Trade conducted between ASEAN member countries.
• Tariffs: Taxes imposed on imported goods.
• Rare Earths and Chips: Strategic materials and technologies crucial for modern industries.

US Reassertion of Influence in Southeast Asia

The presence of President Trump at the ASEAN summit is significant, marking a notable engagement with the region. While ASEAN has considerable convening power, attracting leaders from China, India, and Japan, Trump's attendance is particularly important given the US's fluctuating attention to the bloc. Historically, only two other US presidents, Obama and Lyndon Johnson, have visited Kuala Lumpur for ASEAN summits. Despite this, the US remains a major economic and security power, and Trump's participation offers an opportunity to push for peace and address various issues where American influence is still essential.

The Thailand-Cambodia Peace Deal

The signing of a peace deal between Thailand and Cambodia at the summit is a positive development, but it's crucial to understand its limitations. President Trump's presence and his direct engagement with both sides were instrumental in bringing them to the negotiating table. However, as the Thai side clarified, this is not a comprehensive peace accord but rather a starting point focused on de-escalating conflict and returning hostages. Thousands of people remain displaced, and the underlying historical and economic issues, including animosity and the involvement of scam centers, are complex and require sustained effort beyond a brief presidential visit. The long-term success of the peace deal hinges on the commitment of the involved nations and ASEAN's continued support.

ASEAN's Role in Conflict Resolution

ASEAN plays a vital role in facilitating dialogue and bringing parties together, as exemplified by Prime Minister Anoa's presence alongside the leaders of Thailand, Cambodia, and the US during the peace deal signing. The organization's strength lies in its ability to maintain engagement and persistently work towards solutions, even in complex situations like the Myanmar crisis. ASEAN "owns" the Myanmar problem and is committed to struggling with it, demonstrating patience and a long-term perspective.

Myanmar Crisis and US Diplomacy

The Myanmar crisis remains a significant challenge, and it's unclear how much it features on President Trump's agenda. Deep domestic issues within Myanmar necessitate a willingness for compromise from all sides for any lasting peace. ASEAN, as the patient mediator, is expected to continue its persistent efforts. The Thailand-Cambodia peace accord, while a positive step, may not serve as a direct model for Myanmar due to the distinct complexities of each situation.

South China Sea Code of Conduct

Progress on the South China Sea Code of Conduct has been slow, partly due to confusion among ASEAN members about its purpose. The code is intended to manage interactions and prevent further escalation, not to settle territorial claims. The US presence can act as a signal, encouraging dialogue and peace. However, the significant involvement of China in the region means that US-China relations are a more dominant factor for President Trump than the South China Sea issue with ASEAN.

US-China Relations and Regional Balance

The US's push for peace in the region is intertwined with its efforts to balance China economically and militarily. ASEAN nations generally prefer to maintain good relations with both the US and China, focusing on business opportunities. The success of regional peace and stability depends on the ability of the US and China to coexist. The reinforcement of bilateral trade deals with ASEAN countries by the US is noted, but the absence of China's trade figures in this context is a point of interest. Concerns exist that if China's trade numbers are significantly higher, it could create unease within ASEAN. The mention of "100% tariffs" jokingly highlights anxieties surrounding US trade policies.

Boosting Intra-ASEAN Trade

Addressing roadblocks to boosting intra-ASEAN trade is crucial for regional economic resilience, especially in the face of US tariffs. While trade with the US is important, intra-ASEAN trade is a significant area for growth. Major obstacles include non-tariff measures, some of which are legitimate (safety, health), but others are disguised protectionism and bureaucratic barriers. ASEAN needs to address these internal issues independently, as they are not solely dependent on US policy. Collaboration with other major partners like Japan and participation in initiatives like the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) offer avenues for trade progress.

US-China Trade Talks and Strategic Materials

The anticipated meeting between President Trump and President Xi Jinping is a key event, with trade tariffs and export controls on rare earths and chips being central issues. The US has been securing rare earth deals with countries like Malaysia, potentially as a contingency if negotiations with China falter. Trump's approach to China, oscillating between viewing it as a competitor and a partner, will be critical. The practical, deal-making aspect of Trump's personality is seen as a key factor in potentially striking an opportunity with China.

Conclusion

The ASEAN summit highlighted the complex geopolitical landscape of Southeast Asia, characterized by the growing influence of China and the US's efforts to reassert its presence. While diplomatic breakthroughs like the Thailand-Cambodia peace deal offer hope, they underscore the need for sustained engagement and the resolution of deep-seated historical and economic issues. ASEAN's role as a facilitator and its commitment to persistent diplomacy are crucial. The summit also brought to the fore the interconnectedness of regional trade, US-China relations, and the strategic importance of resources like rare earths and chips. Ultimately, the ability of major powers to find a way to coexist and for regional blocs to strengthen their internal economic ties will be key to fostering lasting peace and prosperity.