Trump and the ex-terrorist: why the West needs Syria to work

Key Concepts

• Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS): A Syrian rebel group, formerly an Al-Qaeda affiliate, that has transformed into a governing entity in Idlib.
• Ahmad al-Shar: The current president of Syria, formerly the leader of HTS.
• Bashar al-Assad: The former dictator of Syria, overthrown by HTS.
• Islamic State (ISIS): A militant group that HTS has clashed with and dismantled.
• Al-Qaeda: A global jihadist organization that HTS was formerly affiliated with.
• Geopolitical Alliances: The shifting and complex relationships between nations and non-state actors in the Syrian conflict.
• Pragmatism vs. Ideology: The debate surrounding whether al-Shar is driven by practical political goals or strict ideological adherence.
• Zero External Enemies Policy: Al-Shar's stated aim to avoid conflict with foreign powers.
• Minority Rights: The treatment of religious and ethnic minorities in Syria under HTS governance.
• Great Power Competition: The involvement and interests of major global powers (US, Russia, Turkey, Iran) in Syria.
• Abraham Accords: A series of normalization agreements between Israel and several Arab nations.
• Tartus Naval Base: A Russian naval facility in Syria.

Summary

This episode of "Battle Lines" discusses the remarkable transformation of Ahmad al-Shar, the former leader of Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a group with roots in Al-Qaeda, into the president of Syria. The program explores how al-Shar, once a figure with a $10 million bounty on his head, is now engaging in high-level diplomacy, including a meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump at the White House and his foreign minister's visit to London.

The Unprecedented Rise of Ahmad al-Shar

• Historic Shift: The presence of al-Shar in the White House and his foreign minister in London signifies a dramatic shift in Western engagement with Syrian leadership. This is unprecedented, as Syria has not had a leader visit the White House in its modern history.
• From Jihadist to Politician: Al-Shar's journey from a former Al-Qaeda commander to a recognized head of state is a central theme. Western diplomats who met him in Damascus reportedly expected a fighter but found a politician.
• Pragmatic Leader: There is a prevailing belief, supported by back-channel communications and observations, that al-Shar is fundamentally a pragmatist rather than a rigid ideologue. This perception was cultivated through interactions in Idlib, with figures like the UK's National Security Advisor Jonathan Pal visiting him.

Al-Shar's Background and Evolution

• Early Influences: Al-Shar, born in the early 1980s, was influenced by the U.S. invasion of Iraq in 2003 and the Palestinian Intifada. He initially traveled to Iraq in 2003 and then moved there in 2005, but his combat experience was limited, and he was imprisoned from 2005 to 2011.
• Prison Transformation: During his imprisonment, alongside other militants, al-Shar claims to have renounced some radical ideas, particularly those leading to widespread violence against minorities and civil war. He reportedly found the full-scale violence and public executions of groups like the Islamic State to be a "deadlock."
• Divergence from Islamic State: Upon his release in 2011, al-Shar formed a new group in Syria, aiming to target only the regime and its allies, differentiating himself from the broader civil war approach of the Iraqi experience.
• Relationship with Islamic State and Al-Qaeda:
  • Al-Shar was automatically part of the Islamic State due to his prior group's affiliation. However, he operated independently within Syria, leading to clashes with the Islamic State leadership, who found him increasingly popular and unwilling to follow orders.
  • In 2013, when the Islamic State in Iraq sought to reunite the organizations, al-Shar refused. To maintain cohesion with his fighters, he pledged allegiance to Al-Qaeda, viewing it as a higher authority. This was a tactical move, not an endorsement of global jihad against the West.
  • His allegiance to Al-Qaeda was largely symbolic, with limited direct control from the organization, which was then weakened and operating from afar.

Al-Shar's Actions and Credibility

• Dismantling Extremist Groups: Al-Shar's track record is presented as evidence of his shift away from radicalism.
  • He is credited with dismantling HTS's Al-Qaeda affiliate in Syria in 2020, preventing their activities.
  • He also dismantled the Islamic State's presence in Idlib, reportedly using harsh methods, including executing commanders, to deter recruitment.
• Judging by Actions: The argument is made that al-Shar should be judged by his actions over the past decade, not just his past affiliations or statements.
• Cooperation with Western Intelligence (Rumored): While not definitively confirmed, there are suggestions of close cooperation between HTS and Western intelligence. This could have involved the extradition of European ISIS fighters for interrogation in Turkey, with information then shared with Western countries.
• Role in Baghdadi's Killing: HTS is believed to have stood by and allowed the U.S. operation that killed Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi in Idlib province. HTS leadership reportedly stated they were pursuing him and would have killed him themselves, indicating a shared interest with the U.S. in eliminating the ISIS leader.

Governing Syria and Minority Rights

• Rebuilding Security Forces: Al-Shar faces the challenge of rebuilding Syria's security services and army, integrating former factions. While there's no open rebellion, full control over these forces is not yet established, leading to incidents like the killing of civilians among Alawites and Jews in the south.
• Addressing Minority Concerns:
  • Initially, HTS imposed restrictions on minorities, including Christians. However, al-Shar later apologized to Christian clergymen, restored property, and lifted restrictions, aiming to be a national figure beyond just Sunni representation.
  • This shift was driven by a rejection of radicalism and a desire to reach out to minorities to build a more mainstream, national movement.
  • However, tensions remain with minority groups seeking autonomy, such as the Druze in Sweida and the Kurds in the northeast.
• Navigating Sectarian Tensions: Containing and disciplining the army amidst sectarian tensions is a significant challenge. Al-Shar will need to open up the political field and delegate governance to empower various communities to foster a sense of inclusion.

International Relations and Geopolitical Dynamics

• "No Problem with the Neighborhood" Policy: Syria under al-Shar aims to develop relations with a wide range of states, including regional powers and Western countries, to avoid dependence on any single entity.
• Differentiating Russia from Iran: While acknowledging Russia's role in the war, Syria differentiates it from Iran, which is seen as having an ideological agenda and being an "open enemy." Russia's interests are seen as more pragmatic, and its position on the UN Security Council and its potential to supply weapons and destabilize the country necessitate maintaining a cautious interaction.
• Israeli Involvement and Peace Talks:
  • Israel's intervention is partly motivated by protecting the Golan Heights and the Druze minority.
  • Al-Shar has indicated talks with Israel, with the condition of withdrawal to pre-war lines (1974).
  • Israel, however, seeks to revise this, aiming to weaken Syria as a state and potentially establish a demilitarized zone in the south.
  • Syria is using the U.S. to facilitate negotiations with Israel, seeking a return to the 1974 lines.
• Turkish and Russian Roles:
  • Turkey has a strong military presence and close ties with HTS leadership, providing advice to the new government. However, Turkey understands Syria cannot become a Turkish protectorate.
  • Russia maintains a presence at the Tartus naval base and Khmeimim air base. While direct engagement has decreased, Russia's leverage through debt and potential destabilization means Syria seeks to maintain a "safe distance" while interacting.
• European Concerns: Europe is concerned about Russia re-establishing a strong foothold in Tartus to project power in the Eastern Mediterranean. The Syrian government's ability to maintain equilibrium between the West and Russia provides some leverage. The future of Russian bases is likely to involve a reduced scale and constrained activities, acceptable to both Russia and potentially the West.
• Iran's Position: Iran is currently in a "wait and see" mode, with its influence in Lebanon weakened by Israeli military campaigns and U.S. pressure on Hezbollah. While some military equipment transfers through Syria to Lebanon occur, it's on a small scale.

Al-Shar's Leadership Style and Future Prospects

• Commander and Politician: Al-Shar is described as more of a commander and politician than an intellectual. He is a risk-taker, comparable to a CEO, focused on practical objectives and adapting to reality.
• Leadership Style: Initial meetings were distant, but he gradually became more friendly and open, seeking to understand foreign perspectives. He maintains a certain distance from his own people, commanding respect as a leader.
• Survival and Stability: Inside HTS, al-Shar's position is considered stable, with no clear internal successor. The main threat would come from the Islamic State, but their organizational capacity to carry out an assassination is deemed difficult given intelligence sharing and past failures.
• Future of Syria: Al-Shar ideally envisions a united Syria under his control. However, Syria is expected to remain a weak state with limited resources, requiring concessions and delegation of governance to local communities.
• Unified Nation-State: Rebuilding Syria as a unified nation-state will take decades, requiring populations to learn to live together and share power after years of dictatorship and war.
• Bashar al-Assad's Fate: A deal for Russia to hand over Bashar al-Assad is considered highly unlikely. For Putin, it's about demonstrating loyalty to allies, showing that they will have a safe haven if things go badly.

The State of Syria

• Physical Destruction: Large parts of Syria are devastated, with cities leveled. Even areas near Damascus show significant destruction.
• Frozen in Time: Parts of the country not destroyed resemble Syria from the mid-2000s, with unchanged infrastructure and appearance.
• Rebuilding Challenges: The scale of destruction requires immense effort to rebuild. Many refugees have nowhere to return to, creating local tensions between those whose homes remain and those whose neighborhoods are destroyed.

Conclusion

The summary highlights the complex and evolving geopolitical landscape of Syria under the leadership of Ahmad al-Shar. His transformation from a former jihadist to a head of state engaging with global powers is a testament to the fluid nature of alliances in the region. While al-Shar's pragmatic approach and actions against extremist groups offer a potential path towards stability, significant challenges remain in rebuilding the country, addressing minority rights, and navigating the competing interests of international actors. The future of Syria hinges on al-Shar's ability to balance these competing demands and foster a truly inclusive and unified nation.