Trump aide coaches Kremlin Ukraine deal response: Witkoff's art of the deal? • FRANCE 24 English

Here's a comprehensive summary of the YouTube video transcript, maintaining the original language and technical precision:

Key Concepts

• Trump Envoy Steve Witkoff and Putin's Foreign Policy Aide Yuri Ushakov Call: A leaked transcript of a conversation between Witkoff and Ushakov has raised concerns about the Trump administration's approach to the Ukraine peace plan.
• Ukraine Peace Plan: A proposed plan, reportedly drafted with input from the Kremlin, suggesting Ukraine surrender land, reduce its military, and abandon NATO aspirations.
• "Art of the Deal" vs. "Art of the Steal": A debate on whether Witkoff's actions represent shrewd negotiation or a betrayal of Ukrainian interests.
• Russian Diplomacy 101: A critical assessment of the proposed peace plan and Witkoff's alleged coaching of Ushakov.
• Land Swaps: A controversial element of the proposed peace plan, raising historical and geopolitical concerns.
• Leaked Transcript Motivation: Speculation on who leaked the transcript and why, with a focus on potential dissatisfaction within US security services.
• Restoring US-Russia Relations: The primary objective of Trump's policy, with a peaceful settlement in Ukraine seen as a necessary step.
• Treason Allegations: Arguments that Witkoff's actions could be construed as treasonous due to providing strategic information to Russia.
• European Security Architecture: The role of NATO and the US in shaping future European security, and the implications of the proposed peace plan.
• Language and Identity in Ukraine: Clarification on the prevalence of Russian language in Ukraine and its distinction from Russian identity.
• Contested Territories and Displacement: The complex realities faced by populations in occupied and frontline territories in Ukraine.
• Territorial Concessions as a Decoy: The argument that territorial discussions might distract from more critical issues like security guarantees and propaganda infiltration.
• War Crimes and Accountability: The implications of potentially waiving war crime charges as part of a peace deal, particularly concerning the deportation of Ukrainian children.

Leaked Transcript and its Impact on Ukraine Peace Plan

The central focus of the discussion is a leaked transcript of a phone call between Steve Witkoff, a Trump envoy, and Yuri Ushakov, a top foreign policy aide to Vladimir Putin. This conversation, which occurred in mid-October, has had an "incendiary effect" on the Ukraine peace plan, which itself is described as reading "like it had been written by the Kremlin." The plan reportedly calls for Ukraine to surrender land, cut back its military, and abandon any notion of NATO membership. The leaked transcript has amplified concerns about the closeness of the Trump administration to Putin and the Kremlin, reaching a "point of alarm."

Witkoff, in the transcript, appears to be advising Ushakov on how to pitch a peace deal that Donald Trump would support. He suggests Ushakov tell Putin to "flatter Trump with praise for the Gaza ceasefire agreement" and to plan a call between the two presidents before Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy's visit to Washington. Witkoff also mentions the need for "Donetsk, and maybe a land swap somewhere" as potential components of a deal.

Reactions and Perspectives on Witkoff's Actions

Anastasia Shapkina (Eastern Circles Think Tank)

Shapkina describes Witkoff's actions as "real estate agents from New York City discovering Russian diplomacy 101." She views the 28-point peace plan as a "ditto of the Russian ultimatum of December 2021." She expresses skepticism about Russians needing coaching on how to deal with Trump, given their long history of engagement. Shapkina also warns Witkoff about mentioning "land swap somewhere," referencing historical instances where Alaska and California were sold at a discount, implying a potential for Russia to reclaim territories.

Samantha DeBendon (Associate Fellow at Chatham House)

DeBendon characterizes the situation as the "art of the steal" rather than the "art of the deal." She states she was not surprised by the transcript's contents, having studied Witkoff's relationships with Russians, including those linked to organized crime. She finds the motivation behind the leak to be the most interesting aspect, suggesting it could be from dissatisfied elements within American security services (NSA, CIA) rather than the Russians, who she believes have less to gain. DeBendon argues that Witkoff's behavior, whether genuine or feigned, benefits Russia. She also criticizes the US for taking a "pro-Russian line" and suggests Witkoff's actions could be considered treasonous for providing Russia with "keys to how to understand Trump" and negotiate with his own president for Russia's benefit. She points to the proposed dialogue between NATO and Russia on European security architecture, mediated by the US, as an example of the US positioning itself outside of NATO.

Boris Bondarev (Former Russian Diplomat)

Bondarev, with 20 years at the MFA Russia focusing on non-proliferation and strategic stability, believes Witkoff's primary goal, as instructed by Trump, is not to reconcile Russia and Ukraine but to restore US-Russia relations to their previous level. He sees a peaceful settlement in Ukraine as a necessary step for this. Bondarev views Witkoff's dialogue with Ushakov as natural and diplomatic, aimed at facilitating a smooth conversation between Putin and Trump. He states Witkoff is not obliged to do what's good for Ukraine but for his patron, Donald Trump. He finds no grounds to criticize Witkoff for his actions, as he is fulfilling his mandate.

James Townsends (Former Deputy Assistant to the US Secretary of Defense)

Townsend expresses disappointment and surprise that Witkoff "hadn't gotten smarter" and lacked "savvy" in his dealings. He agrees with Bondarev that Witkoff has a narrow view focused solely on Trump, aiming to secure a document for him. Townsend notes that the leaks have caused "infighting" within the US administration, leading European nations to step in. He fears the current situation could lead to a "sellout of Ukraine" if a deal is "rammed down Zelenskyy's throat" without ensuring Ukraine's security or dignity. He likens the approach to real estate dealings in Manhattan, where the "art of the deal" is practiced differently than in traditional diplomacy, potentially leading to disastrous agreements.

The "Art of the Deal" vs. "Sellout" of Ukraine

The debate centers on whether Witkoff's actions represent the "art of the deal" or a "sellout" of Ukraine.

• Arguments for "Art of the Deal" (or fulfilling a mandate): Boris Bondarev and James Townsend suggest Witkoff is acting on Trump's instructions to improve US-Russia relations, with a peace deal being a means to that end. Witkoff's focus is on his patron, Donald Trump.
• Arguments for "Sellout" or "Art of the Steal": Samantha DeBendon and Anastasia Shapkina are highly critical, viewing Witkoff's actions as detrimental to Ukraine and potentially treasonous. They argue he is providing Russia with strategic advantages and undermining Ukraine's sovereignty. James Townsend also expresses concern that a flawed deal could be a "sellout."

The Role of Language, Territory, and Identity in Ukraine

Anastasia Shapkina strongly refutes the Russian propaganda narrative that all of Ukraine speaks Russian and that this implies a Russian identity. She asserts that all of Ukraine speaks Russian, including President Zelenskyy, and that Ukrainian became the official language in 1991. She emphasizes that speaking Russian does not equate to being Russian.

Samantha DeBendon agrees that language does not define nationality, drawing parallels to British speakers of English. She argues that the conflict is not primarily about territory but about controlling Ukraine, with Putin aiming to install a puppet regime. She suggests that while territorial concessions might be made, the real danger lies in fake concessions masking a deeper agenda of control.

Complexities of Contested Territories and Populations

The discussion highlights the intricate situation in occupied and frontline territories:

• Life under Occupation: Anastasia Shapkina describes limited internet, controlled information spaces, and forced mobilization of men into the Russian army.
• Contested Territories: These areas have suffered bombardments from both sides, leading to exhaustion and a desire for peace, but not at the cost of Russian control.
• Forced Mobilization: Shapkina clarifies that recruitment into the Russian army is often forced, with no choice for the individuals.
• Destruction and Displacement: Large areas are destroyed, creating "gray zones" that blur lines of contact. People are displaced, and those remaining fear Russian occupation, which involves violence, rape, and child abduction.
• Internal Displaced Persons (IDPs) and Migrants: These groups have left their territories and may never be able to return.
• Ukrainian Soldiers' Perspective: Soldiers question what they have fought for when faced with the ongoing conflict and potential concessions.

Samantha DeBendon notes that some elderly residents in areas like Popasna are reluctant to leave their homes, even amidst destruction, due to having nowhere else to go. She also points out that some Russian speakers simply want the war to stop, regardless of who governs them.

The Strategic Importance of Security Guarantees and EU Integration

Samantha DeBendon suggests that if negotiating on behalf of Ukraine, she would consider territorial concessions only if accompanied by ironclad security guarantees from NATO and the EU, robust assistance against cyber warfare and disinformation, and very fast integration into the EU or a European security structure.

War Crimes and the Deportation of Children

James Townsend highlights the critical issue of war crimes, particularly the deportation of Ukrainian children to Russia for re-education. He notes that this has been a personal concern for Melania Trump, linking it to Donald Trump's potential interest. Townsend warns that waiving war crime charges as part of a peace deal would have significant ramifications for international justice infrastructure (World Court, ICC) and could undermine the gains made since World War II in preventing such atrocities. He emphasizes the difficulty of reuniting families on such a scale.

Conclusion

The leaked transcript of the Witkoff-Ushakov call has exposed deep divisions and concerns regarding the US approach to the Ukraine peace process. While some, like Boris Bondarev, see Witkoff as fulfilling his mandate to improve US-Russia relations, others, like Samantha DeBendon and Anastasia Shapkina, view his actions as potentially treasonous and a betrayal of Ukraine. The discussion underscores the complexity of the conflict, the motivations behind negotiations, the human cost in contested territories, and the critical need for genuine security guarantees and accountability for war crimes. The overarching sentiment is that the current approach, driven by a "real estate" mentality, risks a "sellout" of Ukraine rather than a just and lasting peace.