Trump administration eyes Cuba after Venezuela raid and turns up pressure • FRANCE 24 English

Key Concepts

• Maximum Pressure Strategy: A U.S. foreign policy approach involving severe economic sanctions (oil embargoes) and diplomatic isolation to force regime change.
• Venezuela Playbook: A theoretical framework for regime change involving the removal of leadership and the installation of a successor, which the interviewee argues is inapplicable to the Cuban context.
• Asymmetric Warfare: Strategies used by weaker powers (like Cuba) to impose costs on a stronger adversary (the U.S.) without engaging in conventional military conflict.
• Regime Survival: The primary motivation for the Cuban government, which views political liberalization as an existential threat.
• Humanitarian Crisis: The current state of Cuba characterized by mass migration, infrastructure collapse, and severe resource shortages.

---

1. The Inapplicability of the "Venezuela Playbook"

Andres Pertierra argues that the U.S. strategy used in Venezuela—which relied on a clear, legally recognized successor (Delcy Rodríguez) willing to cooperate—cannot be replicated in Cuba.

• Institutional Differences: Unlike Venezuela, power in Cuba does not follow a clear institutional hierarchy. Raúl Castro holds no official position, and President Díaz-Canel is viewed as an unpopular figurehead.
• Elite Fear: Cuban leadership fears that any negotiation with the U.S. would lead to betrayal, specifically regarding criminal charges and prosecution by U.S. authorities, making them unlikely to cooperate with a transition.

2. Challenges to a Peaceful Transition

Pertierra contrasts a potential Cuban transition with historical examples like post-Pinochet Chile or post-Franco Spain.

• Lack of Trust: Successful transitions require the military to step back, assured of amnesty. Pertierra notes that the current U.S. political climate, driven by figures like Marco Rubio, makes credible amnesty guarantees impossible.
• Electoral Constraints: The U.S. Republican base in Florida demands a hardline stance, preventing the administration from offering the concessions necessary to incentivize a peaceful handover of power.

3. Military Tensions and Drone Capabilities

The U.S. has cited the potential for Cuban drone attacks as a justification for intervention.

• Strategic Reality: Pertierra asserts that Cuba would never proactively launch drone attacks, as it would be "suicide" and provide the U.S. with a clear casus belli for invasion.
• Asymmetric Defense: While Cuba lacks the naval capacity to replicate Iran’s "Hormuz Strait strategy" (shutting down shipping lanes), they may invest in drones as a deterrent to impose costs on the U.S. through increased insurance and transport risks during a conflict.

4. Diplomatic Stalemate

• Ideological Barriers: The "Maximum Pressure" strategy has made negotiations nearly impossible. For the Cuban government, compromising with the Trump administration would be viewed as a betrayal of their foundational identity.
• Red Lines: While Cuba remains open to talks, they maintain strict "red lines" regarding the restructuring of their political system. They may offer minor concessions, such as releasing political prisoners (e.g., Luis Manuel Otero Alcántara), but will not concede on regime change, which they view as political suicide.

5. Socio-Economic Crisis on the Island

The combination of U.S. sanctions and internal mismanagement has led to a catastrophic decline in living standards:

• Infrastructure: Havana, previously insulated, now faces 20–22 hour daily blackouts.
• Economic Collapse: Tourism is effectively dead, leading to a lack of hard currency. Agriculture, healthcare, and education systems are described as "collapsing."
• Demographic Shift: Approximately 20% of the population has emigrated in the last six years, a statistic Pertierra highlights as "incredible for a country not in a state of war."

Synthesis and Conclusion

The interview concludes that the U.S.-Cuba relationship is currently in a state of "insoluble" tension. The U.S. is pursuing a strategy of maximum pressure that the Cuban government views as an existential threat, while the Cuban government’s refusal to liberalize politically prevents any meaningful diplomatic breakthrough. The result is a deepening humanitarian crisis and a population in despair, with no clear path toward a negotiated transition or economic recovery in the near term.