Transportation Stagnation | Black Swans 3 | If You're Listening

The Failure of Future Prediction: Transport & the Burning of the Trams

Key Concepts:

• Black Swan Event: An unpredictable event that has major consequences. The oil shocks of the 1970s are a prime example.
• Supersonic Travel: Travel exceeding the speed of sound (Mach 1). The Concorde was the most famous attempt at commercial supersonic flight.
• Personalized Rapid Transit (PRT): A proposed system of on-demand, automated vehicles traveling on dedicated guideways, aiming to combine car convenience with public transport efficiency.
• Tram/Streetcar Networks: Electric rail-based public transport systems operating on city streets.
• Fuel Efficiency & Cost: The critical factors influencing the viability of different transport modes.
• Urban Sprawl: The expansion of cities into previously undeveloped areas, often reliant on car transport.

I. The Demise of the Tram: A Cautionary Tale

The video opens with a stark image – “Burning Hill” in Randwick, Australia – a site where hundreds of trams were deliberately destroyed in the mid-20th century. In 1945, Australia boasted 12 functioning tram networks, including Sydney’s, the largest in the Southern Hemisphere with over 1,500 trams carrying 404 million passengers annually. Despite this established infrastructure, a belief in the dominance of the automobile led to the dismantling of these networks, except for Melbourne’s.

Between the mid-1950s and 1970, the New South Wales Transport Department systematically removed motors and wheels from trams, doused them in engine oil, and burned them on this hill. Aerial photos document the scale of this destruction. By 1970, Australia was left with only one tram network. Ironically, 55 years later, six Australian cities are undertaking costly projects to rebuild tram networks, highlighting a significant miscalculation in long-term planning.

II. Predictions of a Faster Future (1959)

The video pivots to letters written to the future in 1959, commissioned by the ABC. These letters reveal widespread optimism about rapid advancements in travel. Correspondents envisioned:

• Personal Flying Vehicles: Rowan Rivet and others anticipated commonplace personal aircraft enabling swift travel.
• Technological Immersion: Organist John Her thought travel might become obsolete, replaced by immersive virtual experiences (“press a button and there’s the place…with natural smells and breezes”).
• Exponential Speed Increases: Max Lambshed noted the progression from 30 mph (horse-drawn travel) to 200 mph (early cars) to 1,000 mph (anticipated rocket propulsion), predicting speeds of 2,000 mph would soon be commonplace. He envisioned traveling from Adelaide to London and back in 24 hours.
• Air Travel Accessibility: In 1959, a return flight from Sydney to London cost £500 – roughly a third of the price of a house. Flights involved numerous stops (7 for Lancastrian planes, 12 for seaplanes) and lengthy travel times (2.5 to 5.5 days).

III. The Rise and Fall of Supersonic Travel: The Concorde Story

The expectation of dramatically faster air travel focused on supersonic flight. The Concorde, a joint British-French project initiated in 1962, was designed to break the sound barrier (Mach 2). It was marketed as a premium experience: “Speed is comfort. Speed is time saved.”

However, the Concorde’s success was undermined by economic realities. The Boeing 747, introduced in 1969, offered a significantly larger capacity (450 passengers) and, crucially, lower fares. By 1971, Quantas offered return flights to London for $700 (9 weeks’ salary), compared to £500 (31 weeks’ salary) in 1959. The Concorde, costing three times a first-class jumbo jet fare, couldn’t compete.

The Concorde’s design also presented challenges:

• Fuel Consumption: It burned five times more fuel per passenger than a 747.
• Takeoff Requirements: It required afterburners, consuming 32.5 liters of fuel per second during takeoff.
• Noise Pollution: Concorde was exceptionally loud.

IV. The 1973 Oil Crisis: A Black Swan Event

The 1973 Arab oil embargo, triggered by support for Israel, proved to be a pivotal “black swan” event. The price of oil skyrocketed by 650%, fundamentally altering the economics of transport. This event:

• Undermined the Assumption of Cheap Fuel: Decades of reliance on inexpensive oil were disrupted.
• Revived Interest in Public Transport: Governments began reinvesting in alternatives to car-centric infrastructure.
• Promoted Fuel Efficiency: Efforts to improve vehicle fuel efficiency increased.

V. Failed Visions of Future Transport: PRT and Beyond

Despite the oil shocks, the focus remained on individual convenience. The video highlights several unrealized visions:

• Personalized Rapid Transit (PRT): A 1970s South Australian Transport Authority film showcased a futuristic system of automated, on-demand vehicles traveling on dedicated guideways. Similar concepts are being explored today by Elon Musk with tunnel systems.
• The Persistence of the Car: Despite acknowledging the drawbacks, car ownership remained dominant.

The video contrasts the current 2.5-hour train journey from Sydney to Newcastle with a similar journey in 1959, which took less than 2 hours by steam train. This illustrates that progress in travel speed has been surprisingly limited.

VI. Melbourne’s Tram Network: A Fortuitous Decision

Melbourne’s decision to retain its tram network, despite pressure to dismantle it in the 1960s, is presented as a rare success story. Sir Robert Risson, the chairman of the Tramways board, resisted calls for removal, recognizing the potential for increased congestion if trams were replaced by cars. Melbourne’s network is now the largest in the Western world, a consequence of other cities’ short-sighted decisions.

VII. Conclusion: The Difficulty of Predicting the Future

The video concludes by emphasizing the inherent difficulty of predicting the future, particularly in the realm of technology and infrastructure. The burning of the trams serves as a powerful metaphor for this failure. The expectation of supersonic travel, fueled by decades of increasing speed, was derailed by economic and environmental factors. The video suggests that we often assume linear progression, failing to anticipate disruptive “black swan” events. The next episode will explore another area where predictions have fallen short – housing affordability.