Trading the Markets: October 30 2025

Key Concepts

• Monthly Time Frames: Analyzing market trends on a monthly chart to gain a broader perspective.
• 10-Month Moving Average (10-MMA): A technical indicator used to identify the average price of an asset over the last 10 months, often serving as a support or resistance level.
• Liquidity Environment: The ease with which an asset can be bought or sold without significantly impacting its price. Low liquidity can lead to increased volatility.
• Quantitative Tightening (QT): A monetary policy where a central bank reduces the size of its balance sheet by selling assets or allowing them to mature without reinvestment.
• Federal Reserve (Fed) Meeting: A regular meeting of the U.S. central bank to discuss monetary policy, including interest rates.
• Poly Market: A decentralized prediction market where users can bet on the outcome of future events.
• Seasonality: The tendency for certain assets or markets to perform in a predictable way during specific times of the year.
• Bitcoin Dominance: The percentage of the total cryptocurrency market capitalization that is held by Bitcoin.
• Safe Haven Asset: An investment that is expected to retain or increase its value during times of market turbulence or economic downturn.
• Meme Coin: A cryptocurrency that is often inspired by internet memes and social media trends, typically lacking fundamental utility.

Market Analysis and Fed Reaction

Chris Bullock, also known as Blasto Plast, discusses the current market conditions, emphasizing the importance of zooming out to the monthly time frame to gain a clearer perspective amidst daily volatility. He acknowledges the "ugly day" in the markets but argues that a broader view reveals a less dire situation.

Fed Meeting Reaction

• Rate Cut: The Federal Reserve's expected rate cut was already priced in and not a surprise.
• QT Ending: The announcement that Quantitative Tightening (QT) will end in December was positive, though some may have hoped for an earlier end date.
• December Rate Cut Uncertainty: Jerome Powell's statement that a December rate cut is "50/50" caused a dip in Poly Market's pricing for a rate cut, from 80-90% down to 69%, before recovering to 70%.
• Bullock's Stance: Bullock believes a December rate cut is likely, suggesting Powell's comments might have been intended to temper market exuberance, particularly in the overheated AI and tech sectors. He remains optimistic, especially with the potential resolution of trade disputes with China.

Bitcoin on the Monthly Time Frame

Bullock analyzes Bitcoin's performance on the monthly chart, highlighting key support levels and structural integrity.

• 10-Month Moving Average (10-MMA): Bitcoin has consistently held the 10-MMA as support throughout the current four-year cycle, which began in January 2023. Despite brief wicks below the average, candle bodies have closed above it, indicating resilience.
• Horizontal Channel: Bitcoin is trading within a horizontal channel, with candle bodies remaining above the lower boundary, even after wicking below it.
• Logarithmic Channel: On a log scale, Bitcoin is currently at the bottom of its channel, holding support. The monthly close on the following day is crucial.
• Market Outlook: Bullock frames the current situation as a critical juncture: either the bottom of the current correction or the beginning of the end of the cycle. He argues against the latter, citing macroeconomics that are the opposite of previous cycle peaks (e.g., the Fed is cutting rates, not raising them, and QT is ending, not starting).
• Base Case: Bullock's highest probability scenario is a bounce from current levels, leading to an upward trend, though not necessarily a rapid ascent to the top of the channel in the immediate future. He dismisses the idea of a cycle peak and end, especially given the strength in stocks and the AI sector.

Liquidity Environment and its Impact

The current liquidity environment is identified as a significant contributor to market volatility.

• Global M2 and Bitcoin Correlation: Global M2 (a measure of money supply) has been closely tracking Bitcoin's price action since March. Spikes in liquidity have led to Bitcoin rallies, while drops in liquidity have caused Bitcoin to fall.
• Thin Order Books: The considerably tighter liquidity environment and thin order books mean that even minor news events can cause significant price swings.
• Outlook: Bullock expects this volatility to continue until liquidity increases. Rate cuts and the end of QT are anticipated to help improve the liquidity situation, though it may take some time.

Analysis of Major Cryptocurrencies (Monthly)

Bullock provides an overview of several major cryptocurrencies on the monthly time frame.

• Ethereum (ETH): ETH appears structurally better than Bitcoin, with its 10-MMA and 20-MMA significantly lower than the current price. It is also above its bull market support band.
• Solana (SOL): SOL has bounced well off its 10-MMA and 20-MMA and is holding its upper horizontal range, with candle bodies above the monthly wick lows.
• Tron (TRX): TRX has experienced a wobble but remains well above its 10-MMA.
• BNB: BNB is showing a green candle for the current month, seemingly unaffected by the broader market downturn.
• XRP: XRP has seen a slight wobble, with its monthly candle body closing below the 10-MMA.
• Hype (HYPE): Despite a significant wick down, HYPE is still trading green for the month (by less than 1%), which is considered impressive given the overall market performance. Bullock notes that assets outside the top 10 are generally riskier, but HYPE has held up well.
• Sui (SUI): SUI is at a critical support level, similar to where it bounced in March. However, it is trading below both its 10-MMA and 20-MMA, which is a negative technical sign.

Market Dynamics and Seasonality

The discussion shifts to market dynamics, including Bitcoin dominance and altcoin performance.

Bitcoin Dominance and Altcoin Seasonality

• October Performance: October is historically Bitcoin's strongest month for dominance, and it has outperformed other cryptocurrencies this month, albeit by less than its historical average.
• November/December Outlook: Historically, November and December are strong months for altcoins ("alts"). Bullock expects Bitcoin dominance to fade starting next month, with altcoins expected to run.
• Government Shutdown: In the event of a prolonged government shutdown, Bitcoin is considered a safe haven asset, as it has proven to be in the past when negative news about the shutdown has emerged.

Investor Concerns and Optimism

• Benedict Michelle's Question: A question is raised about concern over Bitcoin's price action, especially as crypto falls while stocks reach all-time highs.
• Bullock's Response: Bullock expresses annoyance rather than concern. He attributes the current weakness to selling pressure from Bitcoin whales and waning ETF inflows, exacerbated by the low liquidity environment and general market uncertainty (tariffs, China, Fed). He reiterates his belief that the current situation is a bottoming process, not the end of the cycle, and remains optimistic about a bounce and higher prices by the end of Q2. He considers a $150,000 Bitcoin by year-end to be a stretch but expects prices to be higher than current levels.

Fan Tokens and SPX Analysis

The conversation touches upon niche crypto assets.

Fan Tokens (OG)

• Lack of Familiarity: Bullock admits to not being familiar with fan tokens.
• OG Chart Analysis: Analyzing the OG token on Binance, Bullock observes significant wicks, indicating low liquidity and depth. The chart is described as too sideways and choppy, making it difficult to glean technical insights. He advises caution and suggests investing only "lunch money" in such assets due to their unpredictability.

SPX (Meme Coin)

• Bullish Sentiment: Bullock remains bullish on SPX, citing strong community sentiment, anecdotal evidence of grassroots promotion (merchandise, flyers, billboards), and the lack of selling pressure from OG whales.
• Community Strength: He emphasizes that the community's self-driven efforts to promote SPX are unique among meme coins and indicate a strong foundation for future growth.
• Diamond Hands: The community's "diamond-handedness" (holding through volatility) remains strong.
• Miroad's Analysis: Bullock references a recent Miroad video that presented a strong case for SPX as a top meme coin, stating that the arguments remain valid despite current price action.
• Goal: The memeable goal of flipping the S&P 500 is highlighted as a key factor in its appeal.

Conclusion and Weekend Thoughts

As the show concludes, Bullock offers final advice to viewers.

• Zoom Out: He reiterates the importance of zooming out and considering the macro drivers of the market, rather than getting caught up in day-to-day price action.
• Four-Year Cycle Caution: He advises against becoming overly fixated on the four-year cycle narrative, noting its limited data points and the changing economic landscape. The current macro environment is fundamentally different from previous cycle peaks.
• Economic Shift: The broader economy is shifting, and crypto is riding this wave. It's illogical to assume the economy will continue to grow while the crypto cycle has already peaked.
• Expert Consensus: Bullock notes that based on his observations of experts and analysts, there is a general consensus that the market is not over.
• Final Message: "Don't [expletive] this up."