Trading the Markets: November 26, 2025

Key Concepts

Global Liquidity: The availability of money and credit in the global financial system.
Quantitative Tightening (QT): A monetary policy where a central bank reduces the size of its balance sheet by selling assets or letting them mature without reinvestment.
Moving Averages (10-day, 20-day, 50-day, 200-day EMA/SMA): Technical indicators used to smooth out price data and identify trends.
Downward Diagonal Trend Line: A resistance level in a downtrend.
Bull Market Support Band: A technical indicator, often represented by the 20-week moving average, that signifies the lower boundary of a bull market.
MSCI Delisting: The potential removal of a stock from MSCI indexes, which can trigger forced selling by index-tracking funds.
Bitcoin Cycles (4-year): A theory suggesting that Bitcoin's price follows a predictable four-year cycle.
Forced Selling: The mandatory sale of assets by funds or individuals due to regulatory requirements, margin calls, or other obligations, regardless of market conditions.
Sentiment Selling: Selling driven by fear, panic, or negative market sentiment rather than fundamental analysis.
Treasury Companies: Companies that hold significant amounts of Bitcoin on their balance sheets.
ETFs (Exchange-Traded Funds): Investment funds traded on stock exchanges, offering a way to gain exposure to assets like Bitcoin.
Soulbound Token (SBT): A non-transferable token, often used for achievements or rewards within a blockchain ecosystem.
Order Books: Records of all outstanding buy and sell orders for a specific security or cryptocurrency.
Thin Order Books: Order books with a low volume of buy and sell orders, making prices more susceptible to volatility.

Market Rebound and Liquidity Environment

The markets are currently experiencing a rebound, which was anticipated due to oversold conditions. The key question is the magnitude of this bounce, as significant selling pressure persists from individuals who believe they have missed the peak and plan to sell on any upward movement. The current focus is on whether the global liquidity environment will be strong enough to counteract this selling pressure.

While global liquidity has shown a slight uptick, reflected in a dip in the dollar index, the impact from a US standpoint is yet to be fully realized, as Quantitative Tightening (QT) has not ended and interest rate cuts have not occurred.

Bitcoin Price Action and Resistance Levels

Bitcoin is currently above its 10-day moving average, a positive sign after briefly dipping below it. The next resistance levels to watch are:

The 20-day moving average.
A downward diagonal trend line.
The 50-day moving average, which is near the psychological $100,000 level.

These are considered early stages of a potential recovery, with significant hurdles still ahead. Stocks are also performing well, with major indices showing gains.

Altcoin Performance and Market Dynamics

Interestingly, some altcoins are showing stronger upward momentum than Bitcoin. There's been significant accumulation in certain altcoins, including unexpected ones like SPX, with large chunks being bought by a major player. Random altcoins like Wrecked (up 27%) and popular meme coins are also seeing gains.

This trend is causing altcoin dominance to perform well and achieve a green month, while Bitcoin dominance is experiencing a red month. This is a peculiar situation where random altcoins are outperforming Bitcoin despite broader market gloom, leading to the overall altcoin market cap outpacing Bitcoin.

Analysis of Short-Term Risks (90-Day Outlook)

A question from the Discord community highlights three key short-term risks for the next 90 days:

MSCI Potential Delisting of MicroStrategy: MSCI may remove MicroStrategy from its indexes in February if the company holds more than 50% of its treasury in digital assets. This could trigger forced selling by index-tracking funds.
US Government Short-Term Funding Deal Expiration: Uncertainty surrounds the expiration of the US government's short-term funding deal on January 30, 2026.
Belief in 4-Year Bitcoin Cycle Repetition: Some investors are selling based on the expectation of a repeat of the 4-year Bitcoin cycle.

The core question is whether these risks are priced in, making it a good time to buy, or if waiting until late January/early February is more prudent for a 6-month to multi-year investment horizon.

MSCI Delisting of MicroStrategy: Detailed Breakdown

The Catalyst: On October 10th, MSCI announced the potential delisting of MicroStrategy and any stock holding over 50% of its treasury in digital assets.
Implications of Delisting:
- Mutual funds, ETFs, and index funds tracking these indexes would be obligated to sell their MicroStrategy positions.
- This would result in significant forced selling of MicroStrategy stock.
- MicroStrategy would be removed from these indexes, undermining its role as a catalyst for Bitcoin buying.
- MicroStrategy's stock price would likely decline due to both sentiment and mechanical selling.
- This would indirectly affect Bitcoin's price and remove MicroStrategy as a long-term buying catalyst.
Is it Priced In?
- Sentiment/Fear: Yes, to a large degree. The disproportionate selling of Bitcoin compared to stocks and other crypto suggests this fear is reflected in the charts.
- Actual Execution: No. The deadline for the rule to pass is in mid-January. Funds will only be forced to sell after the rule is enacted.
Likelihood: High, with an estimated 75-80% chance of the rule passing.
Impact on Bitcoin: While MicroStrategy itself wouldn't be forced to sell its Bitcoin, the delisting would remove a significant buyer from the market. This could lead to a sentiment crash for Bitcoin and a change in how traditional finance gains exposure, potentially shifting focus to ETFs.
Comparison to ETFs: The advent of Bitcoin ETFs has somewhat reduced MicroStrategy's relevance as the primary gateway for traditional finance exposure.
Other Treasuries: This delisting could impact other Bitcoin mining companies and treasuries that hold a significant portion of their assets in Bitcoin. Companies like Tesla, which hold Bitcoin but not as more than 50% of their balance sheet, are not affected.
MSCI's Rationale: The MSCI's decision is based on its model of tracking operating companies that provide services or produce goods. Companies whose primary asset is a financial instrument like Bitcoin, functioning more like an ETF, do not meet their listing requirements.

US Government Funding Deal

The potential expiration of the US government's short-term funding deal in January is an acknowledged "X factor." However, the speaker believes a government shutdown is unlikely due to the significant political damage it would cause to both parties, especially so soon after a previous one. A resolution is expected, though the stakes will be higher.

Investment Strategy: Buy Now or Wait?

Prudent Approach: It is likely prudent to assume that a new all-time high for Bitcoin will not be reached before the end of the year. A reflexive bounce is expected, but the point of rejection is unknown.
Waiting Strategy: If the intention is to wait, look for major technical hurdles to be overcome:
- Price moving above the bull market support band (approximately the 20-week moving average).
- Price moving above the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and Simple Moving Average (SMA).
- Ideally, these moving averages should also be pointing upwards.
Macro Catalysts: If macro catalysts drive a significant price surge, still wait for these major technical hurdles to be cleared.
Caution Advised: It is a time to be cautious, especially for those looking to re-enter the market. Avoid trying to catch the bottom or a "falling knife," as the odds are not in favor.

Holding MicroStrategy Stock

From a personal perspective, the speaker would not want to be holding MicroStrategy stock currently due to:

Massive Selling Pressure: Both from sentiment and the potential for forced selling by funds.
Forced Selling Volume: Estimates range from $2 billion to $8 billion worth of MicroStrategy stock could be impacted by forced selling.
Legal Obligation: Funds are legally obliged to sell, regardless of price.
Downside Risk: While a favorable MSCI ruling would be a positive catalyst, the odds are against it (75-80% chance of passing). The downside risk of the price cratering is significant, potentially impacting Bitcoin as well.

Chart Analysis of Popular Cryptocurrencies

A general overview of several popular cryptocurrencies was provided:

Bitcoin: Above 10-day MA, but not yet halfway to the 20-day MA.
Ethereum: Nice bounce, above 10-day MA, about halfway to the 20-day MA.
Solana: Looks good, already at its 20-day moving average, indicating better structural health than Bitcoin and Ethereum. It's at its next resistance hurdle.
SUI: Poked above its 10-day MA but is red on the day, lagging behind Solana, Ethereum, and Bitcoin. Still above the 10-day MA, so not terrible.
XRP: Above its 20-day MA, looking good and holding up well, similar to Solana.
BNB: Midway between its 10-day and 20-day MAs, tracking with the market.
Hype: Recovered to its 10-day moving averages after a significant downside flush, showing nice green candles over the past few days.
Wrecked (WCT): Recovered from a liquidation event last week, back to pre-crash levels. This was attributed to market mechanics rather than fundamental project issues.
Pangu: Doing well, in line with the market, and above its 10-day moving average.

Pangu Alpha and Abstract Ecosystem

For those interested in the Abstract ecosystem, playing two staked matches in the Pangu Clash game will earn a soulbound token (SBT). This is free to play and the token may offer future bonuses.

Play Solana (PLAY) Chart Analysis

A request to analyze the "Play Solana" (PLAY) chart was made. However, due to the newness of the token and limited chart data, it was impossible to glean any meaningful insights. New tokens often experience skewed price action initially as price floors and market values establish themselves. Caution is advised with newly launched tokens.

Weekend Market Outlook and Thanksgiving Wishes

Given the upcoming Thanksgiving holiday in the US, traders are advised to be cautious about price action over the weekend. Order books are expected to be thin, making prices more volatile. It's recommended not to read too much into weekend price movements, whether up or down, and to avoid making broad assumptions about market direction. The focus should be on letting the market play out and reassessing on Monday or Tuesday.

Happy Thanksgiving to all celebrating. The next Monday show will be on Tuesday, December 2nd.

Black Friday Sale and Crypto Gathering

A reminder about the Real Vision Black Friday sale, offering up to 50% off memberships, is included. The Crypto Gathering in January is also highlighted as an event to look forward to.