Trading the Markets: November 19, 2025

Key Concepts

• Market Downturn: Current market conditions characterized by red candles across crypto and stocks.
• Dollar Index Surge: A significant increase in the value of the US dollar.
• Rate Cut Odds: Probability of the Federal Reserve not cutting interest rates.
• Liquidity: The ease with which an asset can be converted into cash.
• Quantitative Tightening (QT): The process of reducing the size of a central bank's balance sheet.
• Treasury General Account (TGA): The US Treasury's primary bank account.
• Net Liquidity: A measure of the total liquidity available in the financial system.
• Four-Year Cycle: A recurring pattern in Bitcoin's price action, often associated with halving events.
• ETFs (Exchange-Traded Funds): Investment funds traded on stock exchanges.
• Institutional Holdings: Investments made by large financial institutions.
• Yen Carry Trade: A strategy where investors borrow in a low-interest-rate currency (like the Yen) to invest in higher-yielding assets.
• DeMark Indicators: Technical analysis tools used to identify potential market turning points.
• Bullish Divergence: A technical signal where an asset's price makes lower lows, but a momentum indicator makes higher lows, suggesting a potential upward reversal.
• Moving Averages: Technical indicators that smooth out price data to create a single flowing line.
• Capitulation: A phase in a market downturn where investors, exhausted by losses, sell their assets in large numbers.

Market Overview and Current Sentiment

The current market sentiment is overwhelmingly negative, with both crypto and traditional stock markets experiencing significant downturns ("red candles"). This is a stark contrast to the hope for green candles expressed at the beginning of the week. The market is described as looking like "garbage" across the board.

Key Drivers of the Current Downturn

1. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Announcement and Rate Cut Odds

• Fact: The BLS announced they will not be publishing jobs data reports for October.
• Impact: This announcement significantly increased the odds of a zero rate cut by the Federal Reserve in the upcoming month.
• Reasoning: Federal Reserve Chair Powell had previously stated a reliance on data, describing the current situation as "driving in a fog." The lack of jobs data exacerbates this uncertainty.
• Data: The probability of a zero rate cut on Poly Market surged to almost 60% following the announcement.
• Market Reaction: This fueled a flight out of risk assets and into the US dollar, leading to the surge in the Dollar Index.

2. Broader Economic Weakness and Uncertainty

• Contributing Factors:
  • Weaker economic data from Europe and Asia.
  • Uncertainty surrounding tech earnings reports, specifically mentioning Nvidia.
• Consequence: These factors, combined with the rate cut news, contributed to a general sell-off in risk assets.

3. Nvidia Earnings Report (Upcoming Catalyst)

• Significance: The Nvidia earnings report, scheduled for release after market close (around 4:30 PM ET), is seen as a potential positive catalyst.
• Outlook: Optimism exists that a strong report could lead to a market bounce the following day.

Liquidity and its Impact on Markets

The discussion pivots to a macro approach, focusing on liquidity as a key indicator.

1. US Liquidity Trends

• Historical Context: US liquidity has been in a larger downtrend since Quantitative Tightening (QT) began in early 2021/2022, despite some intermediate uptrends.
• Upcoming Change: QT is expected to end in two weeks.
• Potential Injection: Andreas Antonopoulos (and Andreas Mikkelsen) suggested on Real Vision that the Treasury General Account (TGA) will be "plugged back in" on Thursday of the current week, leading to funds flowing into the system and "lubricating the joints."
• Expectation: This is anticipated to lead to an uptick in US liquidity.

2. Global Net Liquidity and Bitcoin's Cycle

• Historical Correlation: A detailed history of global net liquidity and Bitcoin's price action over the last four years is presented.
  • 2021 Peak: Global net liquidity was at its highest, coinciding with a Bitcoin price peak. Liquidity then declined.
  • FTX Collapse (Late 2022): Global net liquidity bottomed the week before FTX collapsed. Liquidity started to reverse upwards, but FTX's collapse caused a significant crypto sell-off, temporarily decoupling price from liquidity.
  • ETF Announcement/Approval (2023/2024): Despite global net liquidity trending down, the announcement and approval of Bitcoin ETFs provided enough institutional inflow to allow Bitcoin to break away from liquidity constraints and trend upwards independently.
  • Consolidation (Post-ETF Rally): After a significant rally, Bitcoin entered an 8-9 month consolidation period.
  • Memecoin Craze & Trump Factor: Liquidity bottomed and began rising again, coinciding with the memecoin craze and optimism around a potential Trump presidency, which further boosted markets.
  • Tariffs Impact: Tariffs caused crypto and risk assets to break away from the liquidity regime, moving counter to liquidity trends until April.
  • Current Situation (July onwards): Global net liquidity has bottomed and reversed upwards, showing a "true trend reversal." However, Bitcoin's price is currently moving "completely counter to it."

3. Four-Year Cycle Analysis

• Argument for Cycle Peak: Some analysts believe the four-year cycle peaked in July due to a break in momentum and a dip in prices, despite higher highs in August/October.
• Counter-Argument (Liquidity-Based): The presenter argues that the reversal and upward trend in global net liquidity suggest the cycle is not over.
• Liquidity Trend: Global net liquidity has shown a series of higher highs and higher lows, indicating a strong upward trend.
• Divergence: The current divergence between rising liquidity and falling Bitcoin price is seen as unsustainable, with liquidity expected to eventually win out.

4. US Liquidity's Role in the Cycle

• Underperformance: US liquidity has been in a downtrend throughout much of the recent period, even when global liquidity was rising.
• Year-on-Year Data: US liquidity remains negative on a year-on-year basis.
• Catalyst for Bitcoin Reversal: The presenter anticipates that a reversal in US liquidity, both on an aggregate and year-on-year basis, will be a key catalyst for Bitcoin's price to reverse.

Institutional Holdings and Market Sentiment

• Treasury Holdings: An uptick in institutional holdings of treasuries is noted, partly due to MicroStrategy's purchase of 8,000 Bitcoin.
• ETF Holdings: ETF inflows have leveled off but are not declining precipitously. They have returned to early September levels and are starting to trend up again, while Bitcoin's price continues to fall.
• Key Argument: The presenter does not see institutions selling at a rate proportional to Bitcoin's price decline. This suggests that the current selling pressure is primarily from "four-year cycle doomsdayers," OG crypto natives focused on cyclical patterns, and some whales, rather than institutional investors.
• Psychological Barrier: Overcoming this "psychological nonsense" and the belief that the four-year cycle top is in is crucial for price recovery.

Specific Asset Analysis and Trading Outlook

1. Hype (BNB)

• Performance: Hype is identified as holding up the best among major crypto assets, experiencing the least decline and holding support levels effectively.
• Outlook: It is expected to run up more than most assets once money starts flowing back into the market due to its strength.
• Technical Setup: While not as oversold as Bitcoin, it's considered a strong asset.

2. Bitcoin (BTC)

• Oversold Conditions: Bitcoin is described as very oversold, with a "big fat DeMark 9" indicator and bullish divergence flags appearing.
• Potential Bounce Levels:
  • 20-day Moving Average: Around $100,000-$101,000. A rejection here would indicate a mean reversion within a larger downtrend.
  • Resistance: Breaking above $104,000 and reaching $110,000-$112,000 would be a positive sign.
• Trendline Break: A specific trendline on the daily chart needs to be broken for constructive upside continuation.
• Selling Pressure: Significant selling pressure is anticipated from those convinced the four-year cycle top is in, who will look to sell on the first bounce.

3. Other Altcoins (Ethereum, Solana)

• General State: Ethereum and Solana are described as "ugly and down," similar to Bitcoin, but perhaps not as severely oversold as Bitcoin.

Key Arguments and Perspectives

• Optimism Based on Liquidity: The primary argument for optimism stems from the bottoming and reversal of global net liquidity, and the anticipation of US liquidity injections.
• Liquidity Will Prevail: The presenter strongly believes that liquidity trends will ultimately dictate market direction, overriding short-term bearish sentiment.
• Four-Year Cycle Debate: The show engages with the debate about whether the four-year cycle has topped, presenting evidence for both sides but leaning towards the view that liquidity signals a continuation.
• Institutional vs. Retail Sentiment: A distinction is made between institutional behavior (not selling aggressively) and the sentiment of retail traders and long-term crypto observers who are more focused on cyclical patterns.
• Irrational Selling: Selling at current lows is characterized as irrational, especially given the potential for a bounce.

Notable Quotes and Statements

• "We're going to talk take a little bit more. Chris is gonna take a little bit more of a macro approach to things because that's probably the best thing we can do right now in a market like this."
• "The dollar index is is basically surging today and and the market is tanking today because... they're not going to be publishing any jobs data reports for the month of October."
• "The TGA is going to get plugged in literally plugged back in, you know, literally tomorrow. He he specifically said Thursday of this week that it would, you know, we'd start to see some some economic activity, some some funds being sort of the the joints being lubricated, if you will."
• "I'm looking at this here and then I'm looking at the price of Bitcoin and I'm thinking something's got to give here, you know, and and I think we know that liquidity is gonna gonna win this win this bout."
• "I'm not seeing institutions selling at a rate that is sort of in proportion to the decline in price that we're seeing with Bitcoin."
• "Absolutely don't sell right now. Um it it Never. I think we're just at the bottoms basically. We're at we're at lows. This is when people when the the freakout is max, you know, and people are just capitulating and panicking, panic selling, and this is literally the worst possible time to sell."

Step-by-Step Processes and Methodologies

• Market Analysis Framework: The show employs a macro-focused approach, analyzing liquidity, dollar index movements, and institutional holdings to understand market direction.
• Technical Analysis: DeMark indicators, moving averages, and trendlines are used to identify potential support, resistance, and breakout levels for Bitcoin.
• Historical Correlation: Past relationships between liquidity and Bitcoin price are examined to inform future expectations.

Data, Research Findings, and Statistics

• Dollar Index Surge: Mentioned as a current market phenomenon.
• Rate Cut Odds: Poly Market data showing a surge to nearly 60% for a zero rate cut.
• Liquidity Trends: Visualized through charts showing historical uptrends and downtrends.
• Institutional Holdings: Data points on treasury and ETF holdings are discussed.
• MicroStrategy Bitcoin Purchase: 8,000 Bitcoin acquired.

Logical Connections Between Sections

The discussion flows logically from the immediate market downturn and its causes (jobs data, dollar surge) to a deeper macro analysis of liquidity. The historical context of liquidity and Bitcoin's price action is used to build a case for future recovery. The analysis of institutional holdings then serves to differentiate between short-term sentiment-driven selling and longer-term institutional conviction. Finally, specific asset analysis provides actionable insights based on the broader macro outlook.

Conclusion and Takeaways

Despite the current red market, the prevailing sentiment from the show is one of cautious optimism. The key takeaway is that the underlying liquidity conditions are improving, and this is expected to eventually drive asset prices higher. The current downturn is attributed to short-term factors and psychological selling, rather than a fundamental breakdown of institutional support. Investors are advised not to capitulate at the lows and to wait for a potential bounce before considering selling. The US liquidity situation is highlighted as a critical factor to watch for a definitive market reversal.