Trading the Markets: December 17, 2025

Key Concepts

• Plus Directional Movement Indicator: A technical indicator measuring buyer ambition by comparing current weekly highs to previous ones, signaling potential market exhaustion.
• 100-Week Moving Average: A long-term trend indicator used to identify support and resistance levels in Bitcoin’s price action.
• Weekly RSI (Relative Strength Index): A momentum oscillator used to identify overbought or oversold conditions in the market.
• Whale Activity: Tracking large transaction sizes to gauge the behavior of institutional investors and potential market direction.
• Liquidity (M2 Supply): The total amount of money circulating in the economy, impacting asset prices and market dynamics.
• SPX (S&P 500 Tokenized): A token representing the S&P 500 index, analyzed based on holder conviction and community strength.
• Aerod Drrome Finance: A decentralized exchange protocol with ties to Coinbase, evaluated for its long-term potential.
• Demark Indicators: A set of technical analysis tools used to identify potential market turning points.

Market Analysis & Bitcoin Cycle Assessment

Chris presents a detailed analysis suggesting the current Bitcoin bear market may be significantly advanced and potentially nearing its end, contrary to widespread expectations of a prolonged downturn. He bases this assessment on a confluence of technical indicators and on-chain data.

1. Plus Directional Movement Indicator & Seller Exhaustion:

The core of Chris’s argument revolves around the Plus Directional Movement Indicator. He highlights that this indicator, which gauges buyer ambition by tracking the success of pushing weekly highs higher, has reached its lowest level ever in Bitcoin’s history, and did so remarkably quickly – just 21 days after the all-time high. Historically, this signal has triggered near market bottoms, but typically after a much longer period of price decline (315 days in 2014-2015, 350 days in 2019, 217 days in the last cycle). The rapid exhaustion signal, coupled with the fact that the price hasn’t experienced a comparable collapse, suggests a “super accelerated bear market” and a potential bottoming process. He states, “This is signaling the most exhausted sellers ever measured in Bitcoin’s history, a month after we peaked from all-time highs.”

2. RSI & Momentum:

Supporting the indicator analysis, the Weekly RSI is also at or near bare market levels, despite the price being only 30% off its highs. In previous cycles, the RSI dipped further during the bear market phase. This reinforces the idea of accelerated selling pressure and potential exhaustion.

3. Holding the 100-Week Moving Average:

Chris emphasizes the importance of Bitcoin holding above the 100-week moving average, a key support level. In past bear markets, the price traded significantly below this average when the exhaustion signal triggered. This resilience suggests underlying strength and limited further selling pressure.

4. Whale Activity & Buying Pressure:

Data from CryptoQuant, specifically the “spot average order size” chart, reveals a resurgence of whale activity. Green dots on the chart indicate large whale orders, and a recent cluster of these dots suggests whales are stepping back into the market and buying at lower prices. This corroborates the exhaustion of sellers and indicates potential accumulation. He notes, “We are starting to see whales stepping back in and buying and much less sort of retail capitulation happening.”

5. Liquidity & M2 Supply:

A crucial element of Chris’s analysis is the comparison of Bitcoin’s price action to global M2 money supply growth. Unlike previous bear markets, where M2 growth contracted alongside Bitcoin’s price, M2 is currently increasing and has even reached new all-time highs. This suggests that liquidity is not drying up, and the current price decline is not necessarily driven by a lack of funds in the system. He states, “Liquidity is not only not slowing down, it’s actually is speeding up.”

Altcoin Analysis & Investment Strategy

Chris briefly touches upon two altcoins: SPX and Aerod Drrome Finance.

SPX: He analyzes SPX not through traditional charting but by examining the number of holders with significant holdings ($10,000+). SPX boasts a significantly higher number of these large holders compared to other meme coins like Pepe, indicating strong community conviction and potential long-term staying power.

Aerod Drrome Finance: Chris is bullish on Aerod Drrome due to its fundamental strengths: its connection to Coinbase, its revenue-generating business model, and its mechanism for distributing value back to token holders. While the technicals are currently weak, he believes its underlying fundamentals position it for long-term success.

Investment Strategy: Chris advocates for a “do nothing” strategy in the current illiquid market environment. He advises against active trading due to the prevalence of “Bart Simpson” candles (rapid price swings) and the lack of a clear edge. He emphasizes the importance of holding assets based on strong conviction and fundamental research, rather than chasing short-term price movements. He concludes, “The trade right now is to do nothing, honestly, because it's it's very illiquid.”

Market Outlook & Conclusion

Chris believes the current market conditions are anomalous, characterized by an accelerated bear market phase and a disconnect between price action and underlying fundamentals. He anticipates a period of choppy, sideways trading for the next month or two, but remains optimistic about the long-term outlook. He doesn’t expect a large Santa rally but suggests any significant dips will likely be bought up by whales. He stresses the importance of patience and a long-term perspective, advising investors to “step away and, uh, you know, let some time pass.”

He concludes by emphasizing a shift towards fundamental analysis in the crypto space, stating, “The days of easy money…those days are gone. It’s you need to do the work. You need to do the research.” He believes the altcoins that will thrive are those with strong fundamentals, real-world revenue, and mechanisms for rewarding token holders.

The overall takeaway is a cautiously optimistic outlook, suggesting the worst of the bear market may be over, but cautioning against short-term speculation and emphasizing the importance of fundamental research and long-term conviction.