Trading Day for Tuesday, Jan. 27, 2026

Trading Day Summary - February 29, 2024

Key Concepts:

• Trade Expansion: Canada and India are expanding trade in oil & gas.
• Earnings Season: Q1 earnings reports are being released, with mixed results across sectors.
• Market Volatility: TSX is down slightly, while US markets show a mixed performance (S&P 500 up, Dow down, NASDAQ up).
• AI Impact: Artificial Intelligence is a major theme, influencing investment decisions and sector performance.
• Economic Indicators: US Fed and Bank of Canada rate decisions are anticipated tomorrow.
• Supply Chain & Geopolitics: Concerns around geopolitical risks (China/Taiwan) and supply chain disruptions are impacting investment strategies.

1. Canada-India Trade Relations

Canada and India have agreed to expand trade in the oil and gas sector, marking a thaw in diplomatic relations after a period of tension. Canada will increase shipments of crude oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) to India, while India will increase exports of refined petroleum products to Canada. The Canadian Energy Minister emphasized this move as a commitment to diversifying Canada’s trade partners.

2. Market Performance & Key Movers (February 29, 2024)

• TSX: Down 0.22%
• S&P 500: Up 0.33%
• Dow Jones: Down (approximately one full point)
• NASDAQ: Up 0.83%

Notable Movers:

• Nova Gold: Up 8.6%
• Celestica: Up 6.14% (following positive earnings report, peaking at a 12% increase)
• Cogeco Communications: Down 6.8% (due to plans to sell 11% stake, generating ~$229 million for portfolio rebalancing)
• Metro: Down ~6% (lowest Q1 profit due to Toronto distribution centre closure and food inflation; revenue up 3% with growth in same-store sales)
• A Gold and Silver: Down 6.25% (disappointing 2026 production outlook)
• UnitedHealth: Down nearly 20% (forecasting a decline in 2026 revenue, the first in over three decades, due to flat Medicare Advantage payments and business restructuring)

3. Company Specific News & Analysis

• General Motors (GM): Shares are up following a forecast of up to $2 billion in profit growth, increased dividends, and share buybacks. CEO Mary Barra highlighted the company’s agility, resilience, and strong product portfolio (including EVs and traditional vehicles). Barra emphasized the importance of a robust charging infrastructure for EV adoption and noted a focus on cost reduction for EV profitability. GM is also investing in hybrid technology and leveraging its racing efforts for product development.
• Algoma Steel: Shares are rising due to a potential $300+ million agreement with South Korean shipbuilder Hanwha Ocean to develop a steel beam mill, contingent on Hanwha winning a Canadian Navy submarine contract.
• UPS: Shares are up despite planned layoffs (30,000 jobs) due to a Q4 profit beat and a positive revenue outlook ($90 billion for 2024). The company is focusing on higher-margin business and reducing volume with Amazon.
• Cloudflare: Shares are up for the fourth consecutive day due to its involvement with an open-source AI tool (originally “Claude Bot”, renamed due to trademark issues) that utilizes Anthropic’s Claude AI model.

4. Expert Commentary – Art Hogan (B Riley Wealth)

Art Hogan, Chief Market Strategist at B Riley Wealth, discussed the current earnings season:

• Financials Strong: Initial earnings reports from the financial sector have been better than expected.
• “Mag Seven” Reset: The “Magnificent Seven” tech stocks are not trading at all-time highs, presenting potential upside. Companies investing in AI with free cash flow are being rewarded, while those relying on debt are not.
• New “Mag Ten”: The focus is shifting to include new AI-driven companies, expanding beyond the original “Mag Seven.”
• AI Adjacent Plays: Investors are looking for companies benefiting from the AI revolution beyond the core tech giants (e.g., industrials, utilities).
• Earnings Season Focus: The current week is crucial, with many S&P 500 companies reporting, particularly the “Mag Seven.”

Quote: "The interesting thing about the Mag Seven is none of them are coming in at or near all-time highs. There's been quite a reset where a lot of these names haven't done much in a couple of quarters." – Art Hogan

5. Y Combinator & Canadian Start-ups

Y Combinator, a prominent US start-up incubator, has removed Canada from its list of countries for investment. This is attributed to structural ease of doing business, tax considerations, and a preference for companies incorporated in the US, Cayman Islands, or Singapore. While this presents a challenge for Canadian start-ups, many already establish US entities for funding and market access. The move highlights the need for Canada to strengthen its scaling ecosystem and support for entrepreneurs.

Quote: "This is nothing against Canada, just rather [a] business move around ease and clarity and the ability for Y Combinator to move faster." – Gary Tan, CEO of Y Combinator (as reported in the segment).

6. Technical Terms & Concepts:

• LNG (Liquefied Natural Gas): Natural gas cooled to a liquid state for easier transportation.
• Basis Points: A unit of measurement used in finance to describe the percentage change in an interest rate or yield (1 basis point = 0.01%).
• CapEx (Capital Expenditure): Funds used by a company to acquire, upgrade, and maintain physical assets.
• Medicare Advantage: A type of health insurance plan offered by private companies approved by Medicare.
• Fab: Short for fabrication plant, a facility where semiconductors (chips) are manufactured.

Conclusion:

The trading day was characterized by mixed market performance, driven by earnings reports, economic data, and geopolitical considerations. Artificial Intelligence remains a dominant theme, influencing investment decisions and sector valuations. The Y Combinator decision presents a challenge for Canadian start-ups, emphasizing the need for a stronger domestic scaling ecosystem. Investors are closely monitoring upcoming economic announcements (Fed & Bank of Canada rate decisions) and navigating a complex landscape of opportunities and risks.