Trading Day for Monday, Dec. 29, 2025

Trading Day - December 29, 2025 Summary

Key Concepts:

• Lululemon Board Shake-up: Chip Wilson’s push for changes to the Lululemon board following CEO Calvin McDonald’s departure.
• Silver Surge: Significant price increase of silver, driven by geopolitical tensions and US deficit concerns.
• US-Ukraine Security Guarantees: Proposed 15-year security commitment from the US to Ukraine, deemed insufficient by Zelenskyy.
• Market Trends: Cooling TSX and US markets, decline of tech giants (Nvidia, Tesla), and a dip in the US dollar.
• Shifting Market Dominance: Discussion on potential shift of market dominance from the US to the Pacific region.
• US Dollar Weaponization: Concerns about the US using the dollar as a geopolitical tool.
• Inflation & Safe Haven Assets: Investor flight to precious metals (gold, silver) as a hedge against inflation and geopolitical risk.
• Trade Wars & Tariffs: Review of the 2025 trade tensions between the US, Canada, and other nations.
• Infrastructure Spending: Canada’s increased investment in infrastructure projects, including energy, transit, and housing.
• AI Impact: The growing influence of Artificial Intelligence on investment and economic trends.

---

1. Market Overview & Key Events (December 29, 2025)

The trading day saw a slight cooling off of both the TSX and US markets after recent record-breaking performance. Major tech stocks, specifically Nvidia and Tesla, experienced declines, contributing to the downward trend. The US dollar reached a three-month low, prompting investors to seek refuge in precious metals like silver and gold. Global stock markets overall have seen a 22% increase throughout the year.

• TSX: Slight decrease after a period of record highs.
• Dow Jones: Down 0.4%
• NASDAQ: Down 0.6%
• Nvidia & Tesla: Significant declines impacting market performance.
• US Dollar: Lowest point in three months.

2. Precious Metals – Silver & Gold Surge

Silver experienced a substantial price increase, topping $80 USD and gaining over 155% year-to-date. This surge is attributed to silver’s role as a safe haven asset amidst heightened geopolitical tensions and concerns about the ballooning US deficit. Gold also saw increased demand as investors sought alternatives to the weakening US dollar.

• Silver Price: Surged to over $80 USD, up 155% YTD.
• Drivers: Geopolitical risk, US deficit concerns, weakening US dollar.
• Gold: Increased demand as a safe haven asset.

3. Geopolitical Developments – US & Ukraine

The United States is proposing a 15-year security guarantee to Ukraine as part of a potential peace plan. However, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy expressed a preference for a longer-term commitment of up to 50 years to deter further Russian aggression.

• US Offer: 15-year security guarantee to Ukraine.
• Zelenskyy’s Request: 50-year commitment for stronger deterrence.

4. Shifting Market Dominance – US vs. Pacific Region (Interview with Thomas Caldwell)

Thomas Caldwell, Founder and Chairman at Caldwell Securities, discussed the possibility of a shift in market dominance away from the US. He highlighted concerns about the US dollar being “weaponized” and the potential for investors to seek alternative currencies and assets. He noted that central banks globally are buying metals as a diversification strategy. Caldwell believes the US economy remains strong but acknowledges a growing interest in alternatives.

• US Dollar Concerns: Potential for weaponization driving investors to alternatives.
• Central Bank Activity: Increased metal purchases as diversification.
• US Economy: Still strong, but alternatives are gaining traction.
• Inflation: A key driver of investment in tangible assets (equities, metals).
• Quote: “People are looking for alternatives away from the US or US centric type of investments.” – Thomas Caldwell

5. 2025 Trade Wars & Tariffs (Mike Le Couteur Report)

2025 was largely defined by trade tensions, particularly between the US and Canada. President Trump initially imposed tariffs on goods from Canada, prompting retaliatory measures. Negotiations continued throughout the year, with Canada responding by removing American alcohol from liquor stores and threatening to cut off energy exports. Despite some progress, the KUZMA review in 2026 poses a potential threat to trade stability.

• Initial US Tariffs: 25% on goods not covered by KUZMA.
• Canada’s Response: $155 billion in tariffs on US goods, removal of American alcohol.
• KUZMA Review: Potential for renewed trade tensions in 2026.
• Quote: “We don't need their cars and we don't need the other products. We don't need their milk.” – Donald Trump

6. Canada’s Infrastructure Spending (Interview with Ted Betts)

Ted Betts, Head of Infrastructure and Construction at Gowling WLG, discussed Canada’s increased infrastructure spending, particularly following the introduction of the Major Projects Office. The focus is shifting towards nation-building projects, including energy, transit, housing, and mining. Betts emphasized the importance of streamlining approval processes and removing barriers to accelerate project completion.

• $50 Billion Spending: Announced in the 2025 budget.
• Key Areas: Energy, transit, housing, mining, critical minerals.
• Major Projects Office: Aiming to expedite project approvals.
• Quote: “There's a real focus on not just infrastructure for its own sake, but as a nation building project.” – Ted Betts

7. Economic Outlook for 2026 (Interview with Shelly Kaushik)

Shelly Kaushik, Economist at BMO Capital Markets, outlined a two-part story for 2025: trade wars dominating the first half and the AI trade driving growth in the second. For 2026, she anticipates continued trade uncertainty with the KUZMA renegotiation. While the Canadian economy has shown resilience, affordability remains a challenge in the housing market. She expects the Bank of Canada to remain on hold, while the US Federal Reserve may consider further rate cuts.

• 2025 Recap: Trade wars (H1) & AI growth (H2).
• 2026 Outlook: Continued trade uncertainty, housing affordability challenges.
• Bank of Canada: Expected to remain on hold.
• US Federal Reserve: Potential for further rate cuts.
• Quote: “Trade is still very much the main driver here in Canada.” – Shelly Kaushik

8. Tech Hot Picks (Andrew Sherman)

Andrew Sherman, Analyst at TD Cowen, highlighted three tech companies:

• Tyler Technologies: Software for state and local governments, strong cloud migration story, high margins, and AI positioning.
• Axon: Leader in public safety technology (tasers, body cameras, software), benefiting from AI-powered solutions.
• ServiceTitan: Software operating system for trades businesses (HVAC, plumbing, electrical), experiencing strong growth and low software penetration.

---

Conclusion:

2025 was a year of significant economic and geopolitical shifts. The coming year presents both opportunities and challenges, with trade tensions, inflation, and the evolving AI landscape shaping the investment environment. Canada’s increased infrastructure spending and the potential for a shift in market dominance offer promising avenues for growth, but careful navigation of global uncertainties will be crucial. The focus on safe haven assets and the need for diversification will likely continue as investors seek to protect their portfolios in a volatile world.