Trading Day for Friday, Jan. 2, 2026

Key Concepts

• Denison Mines: Canadian uranium firm poised to begin construction of a new mine in Saskatchewan.
• Ivanhoe Mines: Miner experiencing positive momentum due to first copper anode production at its DRC complex.
• Tariff Delays: US President Trump delayed increased tariffs on furniture and kitchen cabinets, benefiting Wayfair and RH.
• Market Performance (2026 Start): Mixed trading on the first day of 2026, with TSX slightly up, and US markets relatively flat.
• Canadian Corporate Credit: Strong performance in 2025, expected to moderate in 2026.
• Geopolitical Risk: USMCA negotiations and broader global instability are key concerns for investors.
• AI Impact: Discussion around the valuation of AI-related stocks and potential impact on other sectors.
• USMCA: The United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement, facing potential renegotiation.
• Canadian Economy: Concerns about slowing economic growth and the impact of higher mortgage rates on consumer spending.

Market Overview & Company Specific News (January 2026)

This report summarizes market activity and key company news as reported on January 1st, 2026. The broadcast covered developments in the Canadian and US markets, focusing on mining, retail, and broader economic trends.

1. Mining Sector Developments

• Denison Mines Surge: Shares of Denison Mines experienced a significant increase (over 14%) following the announcement of readiness to begin construction on its uranium mine in Saskatchewan, pending final government approvals. The project is projected to begin uranium production by mid-2028, becoming Canada’s first major new uranium mine since Sagar Lake. However, total project costs are now estimated at over $500 million, a 20% increase.
• Ivanhoe Mines Copper Production: Ivanhoe Mines saw its stock price rise due to the successful production of its first copper anodes at its complex in the Democratic Republic of Congo. The smelter is expected to reach a capacity of 500,000 tonnes of copper by year-end, reducing logistics costs by 50% through shipping nearly pure copper instead of concentrate. Ivanhoe holds a 39% interest in this major copper production site.
• Energy Fuels: Also experiencing gains, up over 14%, due to higher uranium sales.

2. Retail Sector Impact of Tariff Delays

• Wayfair & RH Boost: Shares of furniture retailers Wayfair and RH increased following President Trump’s decision to delay a 30% tariff on upholstered furniture and a 50% levy on kitchen cabinets and vanities until January of the following year. The tariffs were originally scheduled to take effect immediately. The delay is attributed to ongoing trade talks. A 25% tariff imposed in September remains in effect.

3. Market Performance – January 1st, 2026

• TSX: The Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX) showed a slight increase on the first trading day of 2026, recovering from a low close at the end of 2025.
• US Markets: US markets presented a mixed picture:
  • S&P 500: Down 0.1%
  • Dow Jones: Up 0.1%
  • NASDAQ: Down 0.2%
• Overall Trend: Markets were described as relatively flat, with limited significant movement.

Expert Commentary: Adrian Young (Franklin Templeton Canada)

Adrian Young, Portfolio Manager and Director of Credit Research at Franklin Templeton Canada, provided insights on the Canadian credit market.

• 2025 Review: 2025 was a strong year for Canadian corporate credit, with all-in yields near 4% and a record $150 billion in issuance. Spreads tightened by approximately 15 basis points despite geopolitical headlines.
• 2026 Outlook: Young anticipates a moderation in the Canadian credit market in 2026, linked to a slowing Canadian economy.
• Investment Strategy: He recommends investing in Canadian credit, favouring high-quality names and sectors less reliant on consumer spending (aerospace, defence, healthcare, IT – often accessed through US markets). He prefers larger, more liquid issues and “rising star” high-yield candidates, often purchased in US dollars due to market liquidity.
• Consumer Caution: Young expressed caution regarding consumer-centric investments, anticipating reduced spending due to higher mortgage rates for refinancing homeowners.
• Geopolitical Risk: He highlighted USMCA negotiations as a significant geopolitical risk, suggesting a strategy of holding highly liquid assets to capitalize on potential market dips.

Expert Commentary: John Zechner (J. Zechner Associates) & Brian Gardner (Velocity Investment Partners)

Further analysis was provided by John Zechner and Brian Gardner.

• Interest Rate Outlook (Zechner): Zechner believes interest rates are uncertain, potentially moving in either direction. He noted the resilience of the North American economy and the impact of fiscal policy offsetting potential weakness. He questioned whether the Federal Reserve could be significantly influenced by President Trump.
• Market Response to Rate Cuts (Zechner): Zechner suggested that a lack of expected rate cuts might not significantly disrupt markets, particularly if the economy remains resilient. He anticipated a potential shift in investment towards cyclical sectors.
• US Economy & AI (Gardner): Gardner highlighted the strength of the US economy, driven by GDP, retail sales, and commodity prices. He emphasized the importance of earnings, with S&P 500 profit margins expected near 14%. He noted the significant investment in AI infrastructure ($400 billion by hyperscalers) but cautioned that concrete productivity improvements are still needed.
• Canadian Market Strategy (Gardner): Gardner recommended a diversified portfolio with tactical positioning to mitigate volatility. He favoured industrials, financials, and dividend-paying stocks in Canada, while acknowledging the potential for US markets to outperform.
• TSX Leadership (Gardner): He predicted a shift in leadership on the TSX, with materials and financials likely to dominate.
• Canadian Economic Headwinds (Gardner): Gardner identified potential headwinds for the Canadian economy, including mortgage renewals, a fragile job market, and the outcome of USMCA negotiations.

Additional Market Movers (January 2026)

• Tesla: Shares declined due to a larger-than-expected drop in fourth-quarter deliveries and a nearly 9% decrease in annual sales. Concerns were raised about 2026 sales targets and the impact of withdrawn tax incentives.
• Sable Offshore Corporation: Shares surged after a federal court ruling allowed the company to restart a contested pipeline off the coast of California.
• Baidu: Shares jumped in Hong Kong following the filing of a proposal for an IPO of its AI chip unit, Kunlun Xin, potentially valued between $16-23 billion.

Conclusion

The start of 2026 presented a mixed market landscape. While the Canadian market showed modest gains, US markets were relatively flat. Key themes included the impact of geopolitical events (tariff delays, USMCA negotiations), the strength of the US economy, and the ongoing evaluation of the AI narrative. Experts emphasized the importance of diversification, caution regarding consumer spending, and a proactive approach to managing risk in a potentially volatile environment. The performance of specific companies (Denison Mines, Ivanhoe Mines, Tesla, Baidu) highlighted the influence of sector-specific developments and broader economic trends.